O75 Public Administration

Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 4.6pts to 85.8 in November – after the RBA raised interest rates again to 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-23

In November 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 85.8 (down 4.6pts since October). Business Confidence has now spent a record 10 consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 25.5pts below the long-term average of 111.3. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 61% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 37.1% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 27.0% that say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 10.1% points and still the only index in positive territory. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for November are based on 1,519 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA poised to deliver pre-Christmas cheer to hard-pressed borrowers

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 5-Dec-23

Financial markets and economists generally expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. The central bank has increased official interest rates by 1.25 percentage points during calendar 2023, and an end-of-year pause will be welcomed by Australians with home loans. Meanwhile, data from the ANZ Bank and Indeed suggests that the series of rate rises is starting to impact on the labour market, with the number of job advertisements falling by 4.6 per cent in November. Separate data supports the view that inflation is easing; the average price of unleaded petrol recently fell to its lowest level since August.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, INDEED INCORPORATED

Chalmers hints at cost-of-living relief

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 5-Dec-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says households should not expect significant cost-of-living relief in the federal government’s mid-year update. However, he adds that the government may be open to further measures in its May 2024 Budget, depending on factors such as economic conditions at that time. Meanwhile, the national accounts data for the September quarter will be released on Wednesday; Chalmers says the data is likely to reflect the impact on economic growth of 13 interest rate rises since May 2022. The general consensus of economists is that the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Two former detainees arrested and charged – one for sex offence, the other for drug possession

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Original article by Joe Kelly, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Dec-23

A total of 148 people have now been released from immigration detention in the wake of the High Court’s landmark "NZYQ" decision, of which two have already been arrested. One of those arrested had allegedly assaulted a woman in a South Australian hotel and was a known sex offender. The second former detainee was arrested and charged with drug possession in Sydney. The Opposition has described the two arrests as a "catastrophic failure" and has repeated its calls for Immigration Minister Andrew Giles and Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neill to be sacked. The federal government has released preventative detention legislation that seeks to protect the public from the non-citizens, with the Opposition challenging the government to state how many of the 148 it would make applications for under its proposed legislation, with Peter Dutton suggesting it could be as few as four.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS

Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows support increasing for both major parties as two-party preferred result narrows: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Dec-23

The ALP is now on 51% (down 1.5% on a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 49% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted last week. The primary vote of both major parties strengthened with the Coalition now on 37.5%, up 2.5% ahead of the ALP on 32.5%, up 0.5%. The Greens are down 1% to 12.5% and One Nation is unchanged on 5%. Support for Independents dropped 0.5% to 8.5% and was down 1.5% to 4% for Other Parties. This Roy Morgan Poll is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,730 Australian electors from November 27 – December 3, 2023. For further details watch Roy Morgan’s weekly Market Research Update video presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine on Tuesday afternoon.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

States take on Albanese in GST spat

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 30-Nov-23

The federal government is under pressure from the states and territories to permanently retain the goods and services ‘no worse off guarantee’, which is slated to end by 2026-27. The guarantee was introduced in 2018, with the aim of compensating the states for GST revenue they lost as part of a deal to put a ‘floor’ under the allocation for Western Australia. Victoria’s Treasurer Tim Pallas contends that ending the guarantee would be ‘disastrous’ for the states, as they would be collectively $4.9bn worse off each year. The guarantee will be on the agenda for a meeting of the state and federal treasurers in Brisbane on Friday.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE

Business pans unfair IR deal with Greens

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Nov-23

The federal government’s Closing Loopholes Bill was passed by the lower house on Wednesday, with more than 80 amendments that Labor had agreed to implement. However, employers’ groups have criticised a Greens amendment that will have major implications for the government’s intractable bargaining laws, which allow unions or employers to unilaterally go to arbitration after nine months of failed bargaining. The amendment means that employees’ existing conditions cannot be reduced via such arbitration. Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO Andrew McKellar says the Fair Work Commission will make a lot more unilateral decisions as a result of this amendment, which will in turn further reduce productivity.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

‘Uncharted territory’: 60pc of public servants now working from home

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 4 : 30-Nov-23

New data shows that 57 per cent of federal public servants now have access to working from home arrangements, compared with 46 per cent in 2021. Australian Public Service Commissioner Gordon de Brouwer says the growing number of public servants who are working from home has implications for resources, property management and workplace design. Meanwhile, de Brouwer says the latest ‘state of the service’ report shows amongst other things that bullying and harassment rates in the public service are still too high, while the gender pay gap has narrowed to 5.2 per cent.

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AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

Albanese insists ALP will honour its stage three tax cut promise

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 30-Nov-23

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reiterated in parliament that Labor remains committed to implementing the Coalition’s legislated stage-three personal income tax cuts, which are slated to take effect in mid-2024. Labor had committed to proceeding with the tax cuts during the 2022 federal election campaign. Albanese has also told Labor’s final caucus meeting for the year that keeping election promises is critical to maintaining trust with voters, with the nation due to go the polls again in 2025.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Bill shock fears risk NDIS deal

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Original article by Sarah Ison, Stephen Lunn, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 30-Nov-23

The federal government will push for an overhaul of the National Disability Insurance Scheme at a meeting of the national cabinet on 6 December. However, several state and territory governments are believed to have warned that they will not agree to any NDIS reforms unless they know just how much the changes will cost them. NDIS Minister Bill Shorten has declined to comment on how the proposed reforms would affect state government budgets. However, he has emphasised the urgency of reining in the cost of the scheme.

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