O75 Public Administration

Inflation is going north, wages south

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Nov-25

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has indicated that the current monetary policy easing cycle could potentially be over, after the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent yesterday. The RBA has reduced official interest rates three times in 2025, but financial markets expect the next rate cut to occur in December 2026. Meanwhile, the RBA expects both headline and underlying inflation to remain above its target range of 2-3 per cent for at least another six months. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien has blamed Labor for the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold, contending that government spending is growing more than four times faster than the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Spy boss warns of realistic possibility of foreign-ordered killings in Australia

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Original article by Matthew Knott
The Age – Page: Online : 5-Nov-25

The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation’s director-general Mike Burgess says there are "multiple, cascading and intersecting threats" to Australia’s social cohesion. He has used a Lowy Institute speech to warn that there is a realistic possibility that foreign governments will attempt to assassinate dissidents in Australia, and ASIO believes that least three nations are willing and capable of doing so. Burgess also identified a number of other threats, including state-sanctioned trolls, neo-Nazis, extreme anti-Israel activists and Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir; the latter is not a designated terrorist group in Australia, although it is in countries such as the UK.

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AUSTRALIAN SECURITY INTELLIGENCE ORGANISATION

Business wants states to handle environmental approvals

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 2 : 29-Oct-25

The federal government’s proposed changes to the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act will be put before the lower house on Thursday. The government aims to have the Environmental Protection Reform Bill passed by parliament before it negotiates s separate deals with each state and territory regarding the streamlining of environmental approvals. The Business Council of Australia has called for the states and territories to be given responsibility for assessment and approval rights; CEO Bran Black says this is necessary to lock in faster approvals for housing, critical minerals and infrastructure projects.

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BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

Uber drivers sacked over sex claims reinstated

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 29-Oct-25

The Fair Work Commission has ruled that ride-sharing giant Uber must reinstate two drivers under the federal government’s unfair deactivation laws. Uber was also ordered to pay one of the drivers more than $6,000 in lost earnings after removing him from its platform in May due to several complaints about sexually inappropriate misconduct; this included a female passenger’s allegation that the driver had been sexually gratifying himself. In the second case, the FWC has yet to determine how much compensation for lost wages a driver will be entitled to following his deactivation for allegedly hugging and kissing a female passenger. In both cases the FWC found that Uber had relied on customer statements or hearsay evidence from its service team in deactivating the drivers.

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UBER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.8% in late October – down 0.1% points from the month of September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Oct-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% for the week of 20-26 October, down 0.1% points from the full month of September. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for September shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – down 0.1% points from August. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of September 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for September shows mixed results, with decreases in Western Australia, Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia, unchanged in Victoria, and up in Tasmania.. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,097 Australians aged 14+ in September 2025.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.8pts to 85.8 driven by rising confidence about personal finances

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Oct-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 85.8 in the week to 26 October. However, Consumer Confidence is now 0.6pts below the same week a year ago (86.4), and 0.8pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.6. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with increases in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, down in Queensland, and virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 23% of Australians (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 11% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Only 22% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Illicit tobacco trade worst in the world

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Original article by Mohammad Alfares
The Australian – Page: 5 : 29-Oct-25

British American Tobacco’s chief corporate officer Kingsley Wheaton says criminal gangs have effectively seized control of Australia’s nicotine market. BAT estimates that 65 per cent of all cigarettes now sold in Australia are illegal, and that up to 80 per cent of the nicotine market – including vapes – is controlled by the black market. The London-based executive visited Australia earlier this year, and notes that while the UK has had a long-standing problem with the illegal tobacco trade, the level of criminality in Australia is much worse. Wheaton says the only realistic way to regain control of the tobacco market is to overhaul current policy settings, including a reduction in the federal government’s excise tax on cigarettes; this has risen by 75 per cent since 2019.

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BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC

ALP subsidy too late to save 1200 smelter jobs

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Original article by Perry Williams, Jack Quail, Lachlan Leeming
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 29-Oct-25

Tomago Aluminium’s CEO Jerome Dozol says the fate of its NSW smelter is likely to be decided long before the federal government’s $2bn green production credit scheme becomes available. The smelter’s current electricity supply deal will expire in 2028, and it faces the prospect of negotiating a new coal-fired supply deal at much higher prices until it has access to sufficient renewable generation. Dozol says this is unlikely to occur until "well into the 2030s". The Energy Users Association of Australia says the shutdown of the Tomago smelter due to high electricity prices is an "unimaginable situation", given the nation’s abundant energy resources. Tomago’s closure would result in the loss of about 1,200 direct jobs.

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TOMAGO ALUMINIUM COMPANY PTY LTD, ENERGY USERS ASSOCIATION OF AUSTRALIA

Audit for PM’s flagship housing fund

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Oct-25

The Australian National Audit Office will undertake a review of the federal government’s $10bn Housing Australia Future Fund, amid growing criticism of the fund. Auditor-General Caralee McLiesh has advised that the ANAO wil also examine the effectiveness of the Treasury’s design and delivery of the HAFF. Liberal senator Andrew Bragg has described the HAFF as one of the nation’s biggest public policy disasters, likening it to the previous Labor government’s Pink Batts home-insulation scheme. The HAFF aims to build 40,000 social and affordable homes by 2028, and it is part of the government’s target of building 1.2 million new dwellings over five years.

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AUSTRALIA. HOUSING AUSTRALIA FUTURE FUND, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL AUDIT OFFICE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Employers urge Ley to expand IR changes

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 22-Oct-25

Opposition leader Sussan Ley has committed to reviewing the federal government’s multi-employer bargaining laws. However, business groups want the Coalition to consider more extensive industrial relations reforms. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry’s CEO Andrew McKellar says the Coalition should look at increasing the legal definition of a small business from 15 employees to 25, contending that getting a fair deal for small business should be a priority. The Australian Resources & ­Energy Employer Association’s CEO Steve Knott in turn has identified the abolition of laws expanding union delegate rights, right-of-entry provisions and the Fair Work Commission’s intractable bargaining powers as reforms the Coalition should be pursuing.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES AND ENERGY EMPLOYER ASSOCIATION