O75 Public Administration

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 3.4 points to 90.2 in April before the RBA hiked interest rates in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

In April 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.2 (down 3.4pts since March), before the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week to 3.85%. Business Confidence has returned to its level of November 2022 (90.2), when official interest rates were at 2.85%; there have since been four interest rate increases, totalling 1% points. Business Confidence is now 22.1pts below the long-term average of 112.3. Now 38.7% (down 3.1ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.7% (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 40.5% (down 5.6ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 51.7% (up 6.5ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’. Only 37.4% (down 1.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 60.1% (down 0.2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian employment hit a record high above 13.8 million in April as unemployment fell 0.9% to 8.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 124,000 to 1.29 million (8.5% of the workforce) in April. However, underemployment was up 21,000 to 1.34 million (8.9% of the workforce). A total of 2.63 million Australians (17.4% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in April, down 103,000 from March. Meanwhile, employment increased by 240,000 to 13,814,000 in April. The increase was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 68,000 to a new record high of 9,058,000; part-time employment also increased, up 172,000 to 4,756,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for April is 5% points higher than the ABS estimate of 3.5% for March and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Pay rises to cool but wage bills bite

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B5 : 10-May-23

Treasury had forecast 2023-24 inflation of 3.50 per cent in October, but has lowered its prediction to 3.25 per cent in the 9 May budget papers. Wages growth is expected to be at four per cent in 2023-24,compared to Treasury’s forecast of 3.25 per cent growth in October. However, it did not revise its wages growth forecast for 2024 to 2027, expecting pay rises to remain at 3.25 per cent over that period. Meanwhile, Cairns restaurant Wild Thyme operations manager Catherine Pacey said she had decided in December to close the cafe on Sundays and Mondays, because Mondays are quite quiet and wages are quite high on Sundays

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Dole hike strikes the right balance

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 5 : 10-May-23

The federal government’s 2023 budget includes some $4.9bn worth of measures for people who are unemployed. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has announced that welfare payments such as JobSeeker will rise by $40 a fortnight, which equates to an increase of less than six per cent. In contrast, the government’s Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee had recommended a 40 per cent increase. The government will also reduce the age threshold for older unemployed Australians to qualify for a higher JobSeeker payment from 60 to 55; Chalmers notes that many people aged 55+ struggle to find work, with women in particular being over-represented in this age group.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Tax bonanza but slower growth ahead

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 25 & 28 : 10-May-23

The budget papers show that the federal government’s corporate tax take is slated to total $138.4bn in 2022-23, compared with $123.3bn in 2021-22. Company tax receipts up to March were $7.6bn higher than had been forecast in Labor’s first budget in October, reflecting the increase in earnings in sectors such as resources. However, company tax receipts are forecast to total $128.7bn in 2023-24 and $119.8bn in 2024-25. Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted in his budget speech that global economic growth is expected to slow significantly over the next two years, which will affect the domestic economy, businesses and exporters.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Well-off super savers face $2.3b hit

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Original article by Hannah Wootton
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B10 : 10-May-23

The budget papers have confirmed that the tax rate on the earnings of superannuation funds with balances of more than $3m will increase to 30 per cent from mid-2025, and that the cap will not be indexed to inflation. The tax change is forecast to generate revenue of $2.3bn in 2027-28, its first full year of receipts collection. This is based on the number of superannuation accounts that are currently above the cap, although this may change if people shift money out of super in order to avoid the cap. Meanwhile, the federal government will press ahead with plans to require employers to pay their staff’s super entitlements at the same as their wages, rather than allowing them to do so each quarter.

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Higher spending, deficits keep pressure on rates and taxes

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B1 & B4 : 10-May-23

The budget papers have confirmed that the federal government expects to post a surplus of $4.2bn for 2022-23. Labor’s first budget in October had forecast a deficit of $36.9bn for the current financial year; however, government revenue has increased by $130bn since October, while its interest payments on debt have fallen by $15bn. The government has saved more than 80 per cent of the revenue upgrades since October. Meanwhile, the Treasury has forecast a budget deficit of $13.9bn in 2023-24, and the budget is not expected to return to surplus again until 2033-34. The Treasury expects the domestic economy’s growth to slow to 1.5 per cent in 2024, due to factors such as high interest rates and the slowing global economy. Inflation is turn forecast to fall from seven to six per cent in 2023, before falling to 3.25 per cent in 2024; inflation is not expected return to the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent until 2024-25.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Iron ore, coal price rises add $22b to the bank

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Original article by Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B12 : 10-May-23

The budget papers show that the Treasury has upgraded its price assumptions for key export commodities. Treasury has traditionally adopted a conservative approach to commodity price forecasts, which was reflected in the federal government’s first budget in October. The iron ore price had been forecast to be around $US55 per tonne by now, but this has been upgraded to $US60/tonne. The price assumptions for LNG, thermal coal and metallurgical coal have also been upgraded. Treasury expects the revised price assumptions to boost the budget bottom line by around $2bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Melbourne Institute & Roy Morgan – Taking The Pulse of the Nation: Women continue to do more unpaid domestic work than men, better provision of external support services and greater flexibility to work from home needed to reduce burden

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-May-23

In Australia, women consistently undertake more unpaid domestic work – which includes grocery shopping, food preparation, laundry, gardening, home and vehicle maintenance, caring for children and paying bills – than men. The March 2023 Taking the Pulse of the Nation survey reveals that women with children bear the brunt of these demands and that cost or availability of external support services as well as a lack of support from friends and families are key contributing factors. Greater flexibility to work from home could help reduce that burden. The survey shows that women do 23.1 hours of unpaid domestic work per week compared to men’s 15.3 hours. This difference is not solely attributable to gender variance in time spent at work; even when women are in full-time employment, they spend almost four hours more doing household chores than men (17.4 hours vs 13.8 hours). The gender gap exists across all age groups, but is most pronounced between ages 35 and 64, corresponding to child-rearing and pre-retirement stages in people’s lifecycle. This report is based on a total of 1,005 adult respondents from data collected in March 2023. To view all Melbourne Institute – Roy Morgan Taking The Pulse of the Nation Reports visit the TTPN website portal: https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/data/ttpn.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

New Zealand: National/Act NZ on 44.5% are now just ahead of Labour/Greens on 42% but neither is set for a majority

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-May-23

The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows that support for the Labour/Greens coalition government fell 15% points to 42% in April. Support for Labour was down 3% at 30%, while support for the Greens was up 1.5% points to 12%. Support for the National Party was unchanged at 32%, while support for Act NZ was down 0.5% points to 12.5% – its lowest support so far this year. Support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition fell 0.5% points to 44.5%. The results for April continue to show the New Zealand Election later in 2023 is on a knife-edge, with the crossbench set to determine who will form the next Government. This New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 929 electors during April. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell 6pts to 80 in April to its lowest level since former prime minister Jacinda Ardern resigned in January.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND