O75 Public Administration

Migrant intake has already hit record 500k

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Original article by Michael Read, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 25-Oct-23

The Treasury has previously forecast that net overseas migration totalled 400,000 in the year to June. However, former Immigration Department official Abul Rizvi estimates that net overseas migration topped 470,000 in the year to June; he adds that the migrant intake probably reached 500,000 in the year to September. Rizvi also believes that the Treasury’s forecast that the annual migrant intake will fall to 315,000 by June 2024 is unlikely to be realised. Brendan Coates from the Grattan Institute says Australia’s record migrant intake will increase housing demand and put upward pressure on the inflation rate.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, GRATTAN INSTITUTE

Inflation Expectations in mid-October at 5.7% – significantly higher than in September (5.2%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Oct-23

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.7% for the week of October 16-22 – up 0.4% points from a week ago. This is the highest weekly Inflation Expectations have been since the first week of July. However, a look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for September shows that the measure was down 0.2% points to 5.2%. In the month of September, Australians expected inflation of 5.2% annually over the next two years. This decline in Inflation Expectations in the month of September is important given that the monthly ABS CPI estimate for September is set to be released on Wednesday. The ABS monthly CPI estimate for August was 5.2%, up from 4.9% in the year to July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 6,025 Australians aged 14+ in September 2023.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Reserve will not hesitate to hike

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 : 25-Oct-23

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has used her first public speech in the role to emphasise that the central bank will increase the cash rate again if it is deemed necessary in order to curb inflation. Bullock conceded that there is a risk that inflation could return to the RBA’s target range more slowly than is currently forecast. Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says inflation is likely to remain higher and for longer than the government would like; however, he says Australia is in a position of relative strength due to the foundations the government has laid in the last 12 months. CPI data to be released on Wednesday is likely to be a key factor in the RBA’s monetary policy decision on 7 November.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Australia to streamline information sharing with US to seal subs deal

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Original article by Farrah Tomazin
The Age – Page: Online : 25-Oct-23

The federal government will legislate changes to the nation’s export control laws as part of its deal to acquire nuclear-powered submarines via the AUKUS alliance. The proposed reforms will make it easier for Australia to share sensitive information and technology with its partners in the alliance; it is also hoped that they will help ease the concerns of some US Congress members about providing Australia with classified information regarding the US nuclear program. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says US politicians from all sides understand the value of AUKUS and want "to get it right".

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.8pts to 78.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Oct-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 78.2 in the week to 22 October; it has now spent 38 straight weeks below the mark of 85, the longest streak at this level since 1990-91. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

$2b boost for critical minerals

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Original article by Andrew Tillett, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 25-Oct-23

The federal government initially allocated $2bn to its Critical Minerals Facility when it was announced earlier in 2023. However, this will be increased to $4bn as part of measures to be announced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during his official visit to the US. Albanese said critical minerals and rare earths are the ‘building blocks’ of a clean energy future, adding that Australia is committed to building sustainable and secure critical minerals supply chains with the US. The two nations aim to reduce global reliance on China for the processing of critical minerals such as lithium and cobalt.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Albanese must talk with Netanyahu, send Wong to Israel: Opposition

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Original article by Paul Sakkal
The Age – Page: Online : 25-Oct-23

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says he has spoken to Israel’s ambassador to Australia several times since the war against Hamas began. However, Albanese has confirmed that he has not spoken to Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu and has no plans at present to visit Israel. Albanese reiterated Australia’s support for Israel at a press conference during his official visit to the US, stating that the nation has picked "a side against Hamas". Meanwhile, shadow home affairs minister James Paterson argues that Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong should visit Israel if Albanese’s schedule means that he cannot do so.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE

Commonwealth Games fiasco biggest debacle in nation’s events history

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Original article by Mitch Clarke, Jade Gailberger
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 24-Oct-23

Events industry veteran Simon Thewlis has criticised the Victorian government’s handling of the 2026 Commonwealth Games, which it cancelled in July due to a cost blowout. Thewlis says the government owes the events industry an apology, arguing that the decision to withdraw from hosing the Games was the "final insult" for a sector that had already been hard hit by the pandemic. Meanwhile, Volleyball Australia CEO Andrew Dee has told a parliamentary inquiry into the Games’ cancellation that Victoria has suffered significant reputational damage, and organisers of major events will shun the state for some time.

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VOLLEYBALL AUSTRALIA

ALP support plunges after the defeat of The Voice Referendum: ALP 49.5% (down 4.5%) cf. L-NP Coalition 50.5% (up 4.5%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Oct-23

The L-NP Coalition would now win a Federal Election as ALP two-party preferred support plunged 4.5% to 49.5% and is now behind the L-NP Coalition on 50.5% (up 4.5%) after all six States voted against the proposed ‘Voice to Parliament’ at the nation-wide referendum on Saturday October 14, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll taken in the first week after the referendum from Monday October 16 – Sunday October 22, 2023. This is the first time the Roy Morgan Poll shows the Coalition leading the Albanese Government on a two-party preferred basis since the Federal Election. Primary support for the ALP was down 3% to 32% and the Coalition increased 2% to 36%. Another 32% chose another party or independent, including the Greens on 14% and One Nation on 4.5%. The results are based on Roy Morgan surveying of a representative sample of 1,383 Australian electors. Further details on the Roy Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention, including the States, will be provided in Roy Morgan’s Market Research Update and Weekly Update Video.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Virgin ground crews set to strike over pay deal

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Original article by Ayesha de Kretser
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 24-Oct-23

The Transport Workers’ Union has applied to the Fair Work Commission to undertake a ballot on protected industrial action by Virgin Australia’s ground staff. The TWU’s assistant national secretary Nick McIntosh says Virgin has some of the lowest pay and conditions across the sector. The union has rejected Virgin’s proposed three-year wage deal, which includes a pay rise of between three per cent and 12.8 per cent in the first year, and three per cent in the following two years. Virgin’s cabin crew are also seeking a pay rise.

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VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED, TRANSPORT WORKERS’ UNION, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION