O75 Public Administration

Support for The Voice drops to 46% of Australians – down 7% points since December 2022 as Liberals vow to oppose

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Apr-23

A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey has found that 46% of Australians would now vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’, down 7% points since December 2022. Some 39% (up 9% points) would vote ‘No’, and a further 15% (down 2% points) are undecided. If the ‘Undecided’ respondents are removed the split in favour of the ‘Yes’ vote is 54% cf. 46%. However, past experience shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote. This trend has been observed even over the last few months as ALP and Greens supporters who were ‘Undecided’ have been far more likely to move to the ‘No’ vote rather than becoming a ‘Yes’ vote. Meanwhile, Support for ‘The Voice’ is virtually unchanged for ALP supporters at 75% (down 1% point since December) and Greens supporters at 89% (unchanged). In contrast, support for ‘The Voice’ has dropped among voters for the L-NP, One Nation, Independent and Other Parties since December. This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,181 Australian electors aged 18+ from April 14-18.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Dutton reshuffle promotes two Voice opponents

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 19-Apr-23

Opposition leader Peter Dutton has announced broader changes to his frontbench team than had been expected, in response to the resignation of Karen Andrews. Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price has replaced Julian Leeser as shadow minister for Indigenous Australians, while fellow Indigenous senator Kerrynne Liddle will have responsibility for child protection and the prevention of family violence. Price and Liddle both oppose the federal government’s proposed Indigenous Voice to parliament. Dutton supports constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians, but he favours enacting a regional and local voice via legislation.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations increased 0.3% points to 5.6% in March 2023 – the first monthly increase since November 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Apr-23

In March 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.6% annually over the next two years, up 0.3% points from February. The monthly increase in Inflation Expectations came before the RBA decided to pause its cycle of interest rate rises in early April. The monthly increase in March has been sustained in the first two weeks of April, with weekly Inflation Expectations now at 5.6% in mid-April and averaging 5.6% over the last six weeks. A look at Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows rising Inflation Expectations across the Australian mainland in March, although there was a significant decline in the island state of Tasmania. Inflation Expectations were highest in South Australia at 5.9% (up 0.9% points from a month ago) in March ahead of New South Wales at 5.7% (up 0.3% points) and Queensland also at 5.7% (up 0.1% points). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,987 Australians aged 14+ in March.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mining deals boost Chinese investment tally

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 16 : 19-Apr-23

A report from KPMG and the University of Sydney shows that Chinese investment in Australia totalled $US1.4bn ($A2.08bn) in 2022. This was 143 per cent higher than in 2021, and the first increase in six years. Four large mining deals accounted for the bulk of the Chinese investment, headlined by Baowu Steel’s agreement to inject $1bn into Rio Tinto’s Western Range iron ore project in the Pilbara. Meanwhile, Chinese investors bought just $14m worth of Australian commercial real estate assets in 2022, down from $208m in 2021. Chinese investment in Australia peaked at $US16.2bn in 2008.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CHINA BAOWU STEEL GROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

Fox and Dominion settle for $US787.5m in defamation lawsuit over election lies

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Original article by Sam Levine, Kira Lerner
The Guardian – Page: Online : 19-Apr-23

Fox Corporation has agreed to an out-of-court settlement with Dominion Voting Systems regarding the latter’s $US1.6bn defamation case. The legal action centred on claims made by Fox News presenters that Dominion’s voting machines were used to manipulate the 2020 US presidential election. The parties reached a settlement shortly before the six-week jury trial was scheduled to begin. The terms of the $US787.5m ($1.17bn) settlement have not been disclosed. Fox Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch is amongst those who had been called to testify.

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FOX CORPORATION, FOX NEWS, DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS CORPORATION

Burying a $34bn budget bomb

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Geoff Chambers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 19-Apr-23

The federal government’s Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee has made 37 recommendations in a report that has been released ahead of the budget on 9 May. The Treasury’s modelling suggests that implementing all of the recommendations would cost more than $34bn over the forward estimates period. This includes $24bn for the committee’s proposal to increase the JobSeeker allowance to 90 per cent of the age pension. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has indicated that the government will consider some of the recommendations, but he has downplayed the prospect of a large increase in JobSeeker amid the need for fiscal restraint. However, he says the budget will include measures to address disadvantage.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 77.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Apr-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 77.2 in the week to April 16. The index has now been below the mark of 80 for a seventh straight week – the longest stretch since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 19.6pts below the same week a year ago (96.8) and 3.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.0. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia; it now the only State with Consumer Confidence above the mark of 80. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Labor considering tougher anti-money laundering laws

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 13-Apr-23

A Senate committee recommended a number of changes to Australia’s money-laundering laws in a report that was released prior to the 2022 federal election. A spokesman for Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus has indicated that the federal government is considering the report. Amongst other things, the committee has called for the implementation of the Tranche 2 reforms, which would broaden the nation’s anti-money laundering and counter terrorism financing laws to apply to the real estate, accounting and legal professions. Australia, the US and Canada are the only major developed countries whose money-laundering laws do not apply to these sectors.

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AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 2.2 points to 93.6 in March before the RBA paused interest rate hikes

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Apr-23

In March 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 93.6 (down 2.2pts since February), after the RBA raised interest rates for a record tenth consecutive meeting in March but before it left the cash rate unchanged in April. The fall in Business Confidence in March was the second consecutive fall after a new year’s boost in January, although the index remains below the recent low of 90.2 reached in November 2022. Business Confidence is also 18.9pts below the long-term average of 112.5. Now 41.8% of businesses (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.1% (down 1ppt) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 46.1% (down 0.4ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 45.2% (down 1ppt) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Distrust behind recent election losses for the Liberals

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Apr-23

The Liberal Party suffered a crippling and unexpected loss in the Aston by-election in early April, losing the once safe seat in Melbourne’s outer eastern suburbs to Labor – the first time a government has won a seat off an opposition at a federal by-election since 1920. This latest loss came only a week after the Liberals suffered defeat at the New South Wales election, following losses at the federal, Victorian and South Australian elections in 2022. Roy Morgan’s data has consistently shown that the Liberal Party, as well as its leaders, are suffering from deep levels of distrust (far outweighing their levels of trust), while the Labor Party has generally recorded near equal levels of trust and distrust. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that before the Liberal Party can re-gain the trust of the Australian people and form government again, it must first neutralise its high levels of distrust. This must be a key focus for the opposition between now and the next federal election.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY