O75 Public Administration

China launches $330bn arms race

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Original article by Will Glasgow
The Australian – Page: 1 & 9 : 6-Mar-23

Outgoing Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has told the National People’s Congress that the Chinese economy is staging a steady recovery after three years of tough ‘Covid-zero’ policies. The Chinese economy grew by just three per cent in 2022, compared to the government’s target of 5.5 per cent. Although China’s latest national budget has set modest targets for economic growth in 2023, defence spending is set to rise by 7.2 per cent to over $330 billion (1.55 trillion yuan), with the government citing "complex security challenges" as the reason for the significant increase.

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Super-sized broken promise

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Mar-23

The federal government has announced that it will increase the concessional tax rate for superannuation balances of more than $3m from 15 per cent to 30 per cent. The tax reform will be included in the May budget and legislated during the current term of parliament; however, it will not take effect until 1 July 2025, after the next federal election. Labor had ruled out changes to the super tax regime during the 2022 election, and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has described the backdown as another broken election promise. The super changes are expected to hit about 80,000 individuals, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has emphasised that 99.5 per cent of Australians will not be affected.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Indigenous voice adviser warns vote on knife edge as Liberals say referendum dead without conservatives

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Original article by Josh Butler
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 1-Mar-23

Ed Coper is a director of social change agency Populares and an expert on misinformation. He has warned that the proposed Indigenous Voice to parliament is "really susceptible to misinformation", given that many people now form their opinions based on information they read on social media. Coper argues that while social media companies have become better at removing disinformation, it has usually been widely disseminated by the time they are alerted to its presence on their platforms. Meanwhile, Liberal senator Andrew Bragg says the referendum is set to fail unless the pro-Voice campaign actively targets conservative voters. He notes that the campaign is largely focused on people who already intend to vote ‘yes’ in the referendum, but polls show that only 13 per cent of Liberal voters support the Voice.

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POPULARES, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 80.0 in late February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Mar-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.0 in the week to 26 February. However, Consumer Confidence is still 19.2pts below the same week a year ago (99.2) and 3.7pts below the 2023 weekly average of 83.7. Consumer Confidence was down in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but up slightly in New South Wales. Consumer Confidence is now below 80 in Victoria and Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Trade surplus hits $41b

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 1-Mar-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s trade surplus rose to $40.9bn in the December quarter. The value of goods exported rose by 1.9 per cent overall, while the value of iron ore and metals exports increased by 6.8 per cent and 16.6 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, the current account surplus rose to $14.1bn, up from just $753m in the previous quarter. The trade figures are tipped to add about 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth data for the December quarter, which will be released on Wednesday.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

US in no state to save Taiwan from invasion

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Original article by Michael Evans
The Australian – Page: 8 : 28-Feb-23

The Pentagon has advised Congress that it lacks the stocks of long-range anti-ship missiles that would be needed to destroy Chinese warships in the event that China invades Taiwan. Its warning comes as a new book from US foreign policy research institute Pacific Forum concludes that the strategic implications of Taiwan falling into Beijing’s hands have not been properly evaluated in Washington, and that the impact on the US’s credibility around the world would be "devastating" if China seized Taiwan, with or without US military intervention.

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Latest Roy Morgan Poll: Support for the Albanese Government down after discussion about changing superannuation rules while Government Confidence plunges 6.5pts to 95.5 – lowest since the Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-23

Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP support down 2% points to 56.5% compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. The drop in support for the Albanese Government came after Treasurer Jim Chalmers raised the prospect of changing taxation rules for those with large superannuation account balances of over $3 million. The issue of changes to superannuation was easily the largest media story last week with almost 800 media mentions during the week – about twice as many as the second-placed Mardi Gras in Sydney. In addition, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged 6.5pts to 95.5 – the lowest rating since last year’s Federal Election. Now 39% of Australians (down 3.5% points) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 43.5% (up 3% points) who say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Although support for the Albanese Government took a hit the ALP is still well ahead on a two-party preferred basis and leads on primary vote: ALP 37% cf. L-NP 34.5%. Over a quarter of Australians, 28.5%, say they will vote for a minor party or independent including 13.5% for the Greens, 4% for One Nation, 8.5% for independents and 2.5% for other parties. Watch out for more details on the latest Roy Morgan Poll in today’s Market Research Update video.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

NSW Voting Intention: ALP lead over the L-NP cut in early in 2023: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Feb-23

The latest Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 52% (down 3% points since December) ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 48% (up 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. The Liberal-National Coalition gained ground on the ALP in January, with primary support increasing 1.5% points to 35%; primary support for the ALP was down 1% point to 32.5%. Not since the 2007 New South Wales Election have both major parties failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a New South Wales State Election. The support for minor parties and independents remained at a high level in January, down slightly by 0.5% points to 32.5%. Support for the Greens was down 2.5% points to 9.5% while support for One Nation increased 2% points to 6.5%. This Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted via telephone and online surveying with 1,147 New South Wales electors aged 18+ during the month of January 2023.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Ex-RBA governor questions super aims

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Original article by David Ross
The Australian – Page: 4 : 22-Feb-23

Former Reserve Bank of Australia governor Bernie Fraser says the federal government’s legislated objective for superannuation should include allowing people to use part of their accumulated savings to buy a home. The government’s draft purpose statement for super says amongst other things that it should "preserve savings to deliver income for a dignified retirement". Fraser contends that there is no more comforting thought for Australians than knowing that they will have somewhere to live when they retire. He has also questioned the government’s proposal to allow super funds to invest in social projects, noting that they tend to have low returns.

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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers slightly, up 2.3pts to 80.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Feb-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.3pts to 80.4 in the week to 19 February. However, Consumer Confidence is still 21.4pts below the same week a year ago (101.8) and 3.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 84.3. Consumer Confidence was up in all five mainland States and above 80 in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but under 80 in New South Wales and Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ