O75 Public Administration

New Zealand: Labour support increased in January even before Jacinda Ardern announced her resignation

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Feb-23

The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows that support for the Labour/Greens coalition government rose to 42% in January 2023 (up 3.5% points on December 2022). Support for Labour was up 2.5% points to 30%, even before former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced her intention to resign on 19 January. Support for the Greens was up 1% point to 12%. In contrast, the main Opposition National Party lost support in January, down 3% points to 32% and support for Act NZ was down by 1% point to 13.5%. Combined support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition is down 4% points to 45.5%, the lowest combined support since October 2022. The results for January suggest that neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year due to increasing support for both the Maori Party and New Zealand First, which are set to hold the ‘balance of power’ on current results. This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 948 electors during January. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped by 16pts to 91 in January, to its highest level since October 2022 (92). This is the biggest monthly increase since a leap of 28 points in April 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY

PM demands budget spending offsets

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Feb-23

The current inflation rate stands at 7.8 per cent, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers told parliament on 6 February that it is "obviously unacceptably high" and will stay higher than the government would like for longer than it would prefer. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says spending restraint must be the theme of its 10 May budget, particularly as around 20 per cent of all mortgage loans will switch from fixed rates in 2023 to much higher variable rates. It is understood that Albanese has told his ministers not to come up with new spending proposals for the budget unless they are accompanied by offsets

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Australia floats spy balloon fear with China

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 7-Feb-23

It is believed that Australian officials have voiced their concerns with their Chinese counterparts about the spy balloon that flew over the US and was subsequently shot down by a US fighter jet. Foreign Minister Penny Wong says the incident will not get in the way of Australia’s efforts to improve its relationship with China, while former Royal Australian Air Force chief Leo Davies says he is not aware that a Chinese balloon has ever entered Australian air space. Should one appear, he says any decision to shoot it down would depend on where it had been and where it was tracking. However, University of Melbourne atmospheric chemist Robyn Schofield says a balloon launched by China in China could not reach Australia, due to the wind currents, which either blow east-to-west or west-to-east.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE, ROYAL AUSTRALIAN AIR FORCE, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE

Melbourne Institute & Roy Morgan – Taking The Pulse of the Nation: To address rising energy costs, Australians want long-term solutions from the government rather than temporary reliefs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Feb-23

In December 2022, the Taking the Pulse of the Nation survey asked Australians about their ability to meet daily energy needs, their strategies to deal with high energy costs, and what they expect from the government to assist with rising energy costs. Rising energy costs have meant that a fifth of Australians can’t afford to adequately use their heating or cooling. The proportion of Australians unable to heat or cool their homes is almost four times higher among those in financial stress compared to those not in financial stress. When asked how they’re responding to recent and predicted future increases in electricity and gas prices, 36% of Australians have changed the heating and/or cooling setting of their homes to lower energy costs and save money. Some 12% of respondents reported having skipped a meal or eaten less to be able to pay their energy bills. Meanwhile, about 45% of Australians believe the government should invest in or subsidise the development of more renewable energy sources instead of one-time transfers to households to help alleviate energy poverty. Many Australians also want to see government intervention with price controls or caps on energy market prices, and investment in nuclear technologies and power infrastructure. This report is based on a total of 1,000 adult respondents from data collected in December 2022. Visit the Melbourne Institute Taking the Pulse of the Nation web portal for further information and to access interactive charts and other findings: https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/data/ttpn.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

State and territory leaders to sign joint statement backing Indigenous voice to parliament

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Original article by Paul Karp
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

The leaders of Australia’s state and territory governments will attend a Council for the Australian Federation meeting on Thursday. They are expected to sign a joint statement expressing support for an Indigenous voice to federal parliament. They have all previously publicly committed to backing the voice. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says he will vote ‘yes’ at the upcoming referendum on the voice and has urged everyone to do so. Meanwhile, the South Australian government has committed to legislating an Indigenous voice to state parliament in 2023. The federal Liberal Party has yet to formally announce its position on the voice, while the Greens are expected to formalise their position at a two-strategy meeting on Wednesday and Thursday.

CORPORATES
COUNCIL FOR THE AUSTRALIAN FEDERATION, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Teal MP Ryan sued over sacking for unreasonable hours

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 1-Feb-23

The enterprise agreement for staff of federal MPs provides for them to receive an allowance for when they are required to work "reasonable additional hours" over and above the ordinary hours of duty. The court application filed by Sally Rugg shows that the former chief of staff to independent MP Monique Ryan alleges that she was sacked for refusing to work "unreasonable" hours. Rugg will contend that her dismissal constitutes a breach of the Fair Work Act because it was in response to her exercising a workplace right. She is seeking an injunction to prevent her termination from taking effect until the dispute is resolved, as well as compensation from Ryan and the federal government. The enterprise agreement does not define what constitutes "reasonable hours".

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Retail slump won’t stop RBA rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Feb-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 3.9 per cent in December. This followed 11 consecutive months of growth. Monthly sales fell by $1.4bn to $34.4bn in seasonally adjusted terms in December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the downturn in retail sales reflects the impact of rising interest rates on household budgets. However, some economists have downplayed the significance of the latest retail data, arguing that the Black Friday sales in late November affected the seasonally-adjusted figures. The Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

All countries must help prevent catastrophic war amid China-US tensions: Wong

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Original article by Daniel Hurst
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong will use a speech at King’s College London to warn that the Indo-Pacific region is becoming "more dangerous and volatile". Wong will contend that a war in the region would be catastrophic, and she will emphasise that every country must consider what they can do to help avert such a conflict. Wong’s speech comes amid growing tensions between the US and China. Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles will hold annual high-level talks with their British counterparts in coming days.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE, KING’S COLLEGE LONDON

Inflation Expectations dropped 0.5% points to 6.0% in December 2022 and are far higher in Country Areas

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

In December 2022, Australians expected inflation of 6.0% annually over the next two years, down 0.5% points from a decade high of 6.5% reached in November. Inflation Expectations in December are 1.2% points higher than a year ago and up 2.4% points from two years ago. Inflation Expectations are now significantly below the ABS CPI figures for the year to December 2022, which showed consumer price inflation reaching a 32-year high of 7.8%. The early indications from this year are that the decline in Inflation Expectations at the end of 2022 has continued, with the latest weekly reading falling to only 5.1%. A deeper look at Inflation Expectations by region shows that expectations are consistently far higher in regional areas than in the Capital Cities. At a national level Inflation Expectations were at 6.7% in the Country Areas, compared to 5.6% in the Capital Cities. The largest gap is in Victoria, with Inflation Expectations at 7.4% in Country Victoria compared to only 5.4% in Melbourne. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,964 Australians aged 14+ in December 2022.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

NSW Voting Intention: ALP increased their lead over the L-NP to end 2022: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

The latest Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 55% (up 3% points since November), well ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 45% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Primary voting intention shows that they have both lost support to minor parties and independents, with the L-NP down 3.5% points to 33.5% and now level with the ALP on 33.5% (down 1.5% points). Both major parties have not failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a NSW election since 2007. Support for the Greens has risen by 0.5% points to 12% while support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is up 4.5% points to 21%. This Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted via telephone and online surveying with 1,446 New South Wales electors aged 18+ during December 2022.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED