O75 Public Administration

Real unemployment in June up 1.9% to 10.3%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

In June Roy Morgan shows ‘real unemployment’ jumped 1.9% to 10.3% – reversing a series of recent drops. This is the highest ‘real unemployment’ has been since January. In contrast, under-employment was down by 0.5% to 9.3% with fewer people employed part-time in June. Overall though this mean a large rise in combined unemployment and under-employment, up 1.4% to 19.6% of the workforce (2.99 million Australians) – again, this was the highest combined figure since January. These monthly movements take place within the broader context of longer-term trends in the Australian workforce – the total number of people employed or looking for work. The Australian workforce has grown rapidly over the last year. The annual increase in the working aged Australian population hit a record in the year to June 2023 – up by 632,000 to 21.9 million. This surge in the population helped drive the workforce up by 715,000 to over 15.2 million – the second largest annual increase on record. These large increases mean that employment growth has continued over the last year, despite the falls we see in the month of June.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations increased to 5.9% this week – far higher than May average of 5.2%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

In the last week Roy Morgan’s weekly Inflation Expectations is up 0.4% to 5.9% – far higher than the May average of 5.2%. Australians expect inflation of 5.9% annually over the next two years. The monthly Inflation Expectations figure for May of 5.2% was down 0.1% from April, and could be an indicator for today’s ABS May CPI figure. The monthly Inflation Expectations figure for May was the lowest monthly reading since February 2022. However, the latest figures show that the back-to-back decreases in monthly Inflation Expectations in April and May have not been sustained, with weekly Inflation Expectations rising throughout June and now at 5.9%. Looking longer-term, Inflation Expectations have averaged 5.4% so far during 2023 and are down from a monthly high of 6.5% in November 2022 and down significantly from a weekly high of 6.8% in early November. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,943 Australians aged 14+ in May.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.5pts to 74.9 – biggest weekly increase since the first week of January 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.5pts to 74.9 in the week to 25 June. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent 17 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 9.8pts below the same week a year ago (84.7), and 4.1pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.0. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW and Queensland, but down in Victoria, WA and SA. Now 20% of Australians (up 5ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 41% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator since August 1989). Only 6% (up 1 ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 43% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Fat budget surplus but brace for crunch

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 28-Jun-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is set to announce that the surplus for 2022-23 will be significantly higher than the $4.2bn that was forecast in the budget on 9 May. Chalmers will attribute the better-than-expected budget bottom line to factors such as higher commodity prices and a strong labour market; however, the exact size of the surplus will not be known for several weeks. Chalmers will also advise that the government expects inflation to remain higher for longer than it would like, while economic growth is forecast to slow from 3.25 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2023-24.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

‘Unemployment is too low’: RBA deputy stirs up union anger

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 21-Jun-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Michele Bullock says the nation’s unemployment rate will need to rise to 4.5 per cent over the next year if inflation is to be progressively restored to the target range of 2-3 per cent. Bullock adds that failure to bring inflation under control would most likely result in a "deep and long-lasting recession". Her comments have been criticised by union leaders, with CFMEU national secretary Zach Smith saying it is shameful for a top central banker to state that unemployment needs to rise. He contends that tens of thousands of livelihoods would be at risk from such an "irresponsible economic approach", and adds that corporate profits are the main driver of the high inflation rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA

Global report: Australia must lift its game

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 21-Jun-23

Australia has ranked 19th out of 64 countries in the latest edition of the World Competitiveness Yearbook report, which is compiled by the International Institute for Management Development. Australia ranks third on life expectancy and health coverage, but it is now in 62nd place in terms of entrepreneurship and 46th with regard to productivity. World Competitiveness Centre director Arturo Bris contends that while resources-rich countries such as Australia tend to be more productive, they can learn a lot from countries such as Switzerland and Singapore, which lack natural resources but have built highly productive economic models.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT, WORLD COMPETITIVE CENTRE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 72.4 – lowest Consumer Confidence Rating since April 4/5, 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jun-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 72.4 (down 0.3 points) in the week to 18 June. Consumer Confidence has now spent 16 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 9.3pts below the same week a year ago (81.7), and 6.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.2. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, WA and SA, but down in NSW and Queensland. Now only 15% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (a new record low for this indicator), while 56% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (an equal record high for this indicator). Some 27% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020), while 39% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 5% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since August 2020), while 44% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Industry chiefs lash critical minerals plan

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 16 : 21-Jun-23

Mineral Resources MD Chris Ellison has described the federal government’s critical minerals strategy as "empty rhetoric" and a "missed opportunity" to attract international investment in the commodities that will be essential to the energy transition. He contends that measures such as tax incentives, fast-tracked approvals and financial assistance are needed if the government is serious about competing with countries such as the US and its ­Inflation Reduction Act. Resources Minister Madeleine King says the critical minerals strategy is aimed at setting out a framework to allow the government to give targeted support to industry in the future.

CORPORATES
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES

Business to target Burke in IR battle

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 21-Jun-23

Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke has criticised an advertising campaign opposing the federal government’s proposed ‘same job, same pay’ law for labour hire workers. He says the advertisements’ claim that inexperienced labour hire worker would have to be paid the same as an experienced, full-time employee is false. However, the employers’ groups that are funding the campaign will persist with it; they intend to target Burke’s electorate of Watson in particular, via mobile and fixed billboard ads. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently stated that the labour hire reforms would be "limited and targeted".

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

RBA admits it underpaid staff $1.15m

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 15-Jun-23

PwC has completed its review of wage underpayments at the Reserve Bank of Australia. The review was commissioned after the central bank apologised to affected staff. PwC has found that 1,173 current and former RBA employees had been underpaid a total of $1.15 million, excluding interest. The RBA’s head of human resources Karlee Hughes has indicated that more than 20 per cent of affected staff had been underpaid by $150 or less; she added that the RBA takes paying its staff correctly very seriously, and it is "genuinely sorry" that the underpayment occured.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD