O75 Public Administration

Chalmers warns of rates-driven inflation

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Oct-22

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the world is facing a "substantial" global economic downturn, although he adds that the federal government’s first Budget on 25 October will not forecast a recession in Australia. Chalmers has also warned that the widening gap between interest rates in Australia and the US could boost inflation by putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar and making imports more expensive. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.9 per cent in 2023; it had previously forecast growth of 2.2 per cent. The IMF has also downgraded its global growth forecast.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

More than one in five Australians worked from home at height of 2021 lockdowns, census shows

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Original article by Caitlin Cassidy, Nick Evershed
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 12-Oct-22

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that 25 per cent of capital city residents were working from home on Census day in August 2021. Some 20 per cent of people nationwide worked from home on the day of the Census, which coincided with COVID-19 lockdown restrictions across most of eastern Australia. The figures also show that 31 per cent of NSW residents worked from home on Census day, compared with just 4.8 per cent in 2016. Likewise, 26 per cent of people in Victoria were working from home, up from 4.6 per cent in 2016. Australian statistician David Gruen says the 2021 Census provides a "fascinating insight" into how Australians worked and lived during a global pandemic.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment drops to 8.1% in September as employment soars to a record high above 13.7 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Oct-22

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.2 million Australians (8.1% of the workforce) were unemployed in September, down 161,000 (1.1%) from August. The number of Australians looking for full-time work fell 57,000 to 535,000 in September, and the number of people looking for part-time work was down 104,000 to 667,000. Some 1.56 million Australians (10.5% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work – up 59,000 from August. In total, 2.76 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, up 72,000 on August. Meanwhile, employment increased by 218,000 to a record high of 13,705,000 in September. This was driven by a rise in both full-time employment (up 197,000 to 8,881,000) and part-time employment (up 21,000 to a record high of 4,824,000). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.1% for September is more than double the ABS estimate for August of 3.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

New Zealand proposes taxing cow burps to reduce emissions

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Original article by George Wright
BBC News – Page: Online : 12-Oct-22

New Zealand’s agricultural sector accounts for about 50 per cent of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. The NZ government has proposed the introduction of a tax on the methane emissions of cows as part of its strategy to counter climate change. However, Federated Farmers national president Andrew Hoggard has warned that the levy may prompt many farmers to sell up. Some critics also contend that the proposal could increase carbon emissions, as food production might shift to countries that have less efficient farming methods.

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FEDERATED FARMERS OF NEW ZEALAND INCORPORATED

Treasurer tipped for $114b revenue windfall

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Original article by Tom McIlroy, Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Oct-22

Deloitte Access Economics has forecast that the federal government’s Budget on 25 October will include additional revenue of $114.4bn over four years. Deloitte also anticipates that government spending will be higher than expected, and the firm has forecast that cumulative underlying cash deficits will be $45.5bn lower over four years. Stephen Smith of Deloitte says the strength of the domestic economy is a key reason why Australia has emerged from the pandemic with a budget position that is far healthier than most of its peers.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.9pts to 84.6 after RBA raises interest rates to nine-year high of 2.6%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Oct-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 84.6 in the week ended 9 October. It is now 21pts below the same week a year ago (105.6), and 5.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 90.5. The fall in Consumer Confidence was patchy, with three States down (NSW, Victoria and WA) and two States increasing slightly (Queensland and SA). Now 23% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Almost 200,000 robodebt cases to be wiped as Albanese government condemns shameful scheme

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Original article by Josh Butler
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 12-Oct-22

The federal government has advised that it will not proceed with reviews of 197,000 welfare recipients who were alleged to have been overpaid via the Coalition’s "robodebt" scheme. The reviews of these people’s income and welfare payments were suspended in 2019 after concerns emerged about the ill-fated scheme. The government will announce on Wednesday that these cases will be officially ‘wiped’. The government announced a royal commission into the robodebt scheme in August.

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No lap of honour as Xi loses his hero status

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 20 : 5-Oct-22

Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to have the numbers to be given a third term at the Communist Party’s upcoming 20th National Congress. However, nothing has gone right for Xi in the last year, and he no longer has hero status. Xi made a serious mistake in not making it very clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately prior to the Beijing Winter Olympics that China would oppose an invasion of Ukraine; Putin delayed the invasion until after the Olympics. The invasion will also dash Xi’s grand vision to link the Pacific to the Atlantic via fast rail; the rail line would have to pass through both Russia and Ukraine, and Putin had almost certainly assured Xi that victory would come quickly. Meanwhile, China’s property industry is in crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns are hitting the economy.

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Freeze rents or we’ll block Labor housing bill: Greens

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Original article by Geoff Carmody
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Oct-22

Legislation to establish the federal government’s Housing Australia Future Fund will be put before parliament after the Budget is handed down on 25 October. Investment returns from the fund will be used to build 30,000 new social and affordable homes over the first five years. However, the Greens contend that this will not be sufficient to meet the nation’s housing needs, and will seek a number of concessions in return for their support. They include a commitment to building 275,000 new public and affordable homes over five years and imposing a nationwide rent freeze for two years.

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AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Don’t break tax promise: Labor MPs

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 5-Oct-22

Labor MPs Helen Polley, Mike Freelander and Meryl Swanson have stated that the federal government must not back down on its election commitment to proceed with the Coalition’s stage-three personal income cuts. Freelander says he is "uncomfortable" about the tax cuts – which will benefit high-income earners in particular – but he contends that governments must keep their promises. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has again refused to rule out making changes to the tax package, while Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh has also emphasised the need to abide by election commitments. Meanwhile, Chalmers has doubled down on his warning about the outlook for the global economy and the prospect of a further rise in Australia’s inflation rate.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY