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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.6pts to 78.2 this week; fifth week in a row below 80 is the first time since 1990-91

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Apr-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.6pts to 78.2 in the week to April 2; however, this is the fifth week in a row the index has been below the mark of 80 – the first time this has happened since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 15.2pts below the same week a year ago (93.4), and 3.5pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.4. Consumer Confidence was mixed around the country this week; it was driven upwards by a significant increase in New South Wales following the state election, and it was also up in WA and SA. In contrast, Consumer Confidence was down in Victoria and Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian full-time employment in March hit a record high of 9 million as unemployment fell 0.7% to 9.4%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Apr-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 111,000 to 1.41 million (9.4% of the workforce) in March. Underemployment was down 48,000 to 1.32 million (8.8% of the workforce). A total of 2.73 million Australians (18.8% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in March, down 159,000. Meanwhile, employment increased by 57,000 to 13,574,000 in March. The increase was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 41,000 to a new record high of 8,990,000; part-time employment also increased, up 16,000 to 4,584,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.4% is almost 6% points higher than the ABS estimate of 3.5% for February and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

RBA hits pause, for now

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Apr-23

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has emphasised that the interest rate pause on Tuesday does not necessarily mean that the cash rate has peaked. He says the decision to leave rates on hold at 3.6 per cent in April will give the RBA board more time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook. Lowe added that further tightening of monetary policy may be needed to restore inflation to the target range of 2-3 per cent. Financial markets have now priced in a 22 per cent chance of a rate rise in May, compared with 40 per cent prior to the monthly board meeting. Economists say that inflation data for the March quarter will be a key factor in the RBA’s interest rates decision in May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down for a fourth straight week by 0.5pts to 76.5 – lowest since early April 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Mar-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.5pts to 76.5 in the week to 19 March; this is the lowest rating since early April 2020, in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer Confidence is now 14.7pts below the same week a year ago (91.2), and 5.6pts below the 2023 weekly average of 82.1. Consumer Confidence was mixed around the country; it was up in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but down in Queensland, and crucially down in New South Wales ahead of the election on Saturday. Now 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since early April 2020).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Lambie swings the vote on $10b housing fund

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 22-Mar-23

The federal government still hopes to pass its Housing Affordability Future Fund legislation before parliament rises next week. The prospects of getting the bill through the Senate have been boosted after the Jacqui Lambie Network flagged its potential support for the $10bn fund; however JLN senator Tammy Tyrrell says this will be conditional on a guarantee that some 1,200 of the HAFF’s 30,000 social and affordable rental homes will be built in Tasmania, the home state of both herself and party leader Jacqui Lambie. The government also requires the support of the Greens.

CORPORATES
JACQUI LAMBIE NETWORK, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

NSW Voting Intention: ALP lead over the L-NP increases in mid-March: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Mar-23

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 53.5% (up 1% point since late February) ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 46.5% (down 1% point) in mid-March, with the state election to be held on Saturday. The ALP now has a primary vote of 34% (up 0.5% points since late February; the Liberal-National Coalition’s primary vote is also 34% (up 1.5% points), while 32% (down 2% points) of electors say they will vote for a minor party or independent candidate. Meanwhile, Labor leader Chris Minns has retained his lead as the ‘Better Premier’ on 52% (down 2% points since late February) over Premier Dominic Perrottet on 48% (up 2% points); however, the gap has closed slightly in recent weeks. This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on State voting intention was conducted via SMS with 1,013 New South Wales electors aged 18+ from March 10-14.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Time to reassess $250,000 deposit guarantee, says Swan

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 15 & 23 : 22-Mar-23

Former federal treasurer Wayne Swan says the recent spate of bank failures is in some ways similar to the global financial crisis, although he stresses that the factors at play in 2023 are different to those of 2008-09. Swan notes that Australia now has some buffers in place that were not present during the GFC, while enforcement and regulatory arrangements have been improved since then. The bank deposit guarantee is amongst the measures that were introduced in response to the GFC; Swan contends that the latest turmoil in the global banking sector means that it would be appropriate for the federal government and regulators to consider increasing the $250,000 threshold.

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RBA signals rates pause amid warning on woeful productivity

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Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 22-Mar-23

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting on 7 March show that it may be open to leaving the cash rate on hold in April. The minutes note that RBA board members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the April meeting, as this would provide it with additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy. The board also noted that a rate pause will be appropriate at some point in order to more fully assess the effect of the 10 consecutive interest rate increases to date. The minutes show that the RBA board is also concerned about Australia’s low level of productivity and its impact on inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers eases fears: banks are safe

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 15-Mar-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has downplayed concerns about the potential implications of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse for Australian banks. He says the federal government, the Treasury and regulators are monitoring the situation and the potential impact on Australia’s financial system. Chalmers has emphasised that the nation’s banks are well-capitalised and have high levels of liquidity. The fallout from SVB’s collapse has prompted a global selldown of bank shares, while many investors now expect the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate on hold in April.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, SILICON VALLEY BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence slumps 10.6 points to 95.8 in February after the RBA raises interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Mar-23

In February 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 95.8 (down 10.6pts since January) after the RBA raised interest rates for a ninth consecutive meeting in early February. The fall in Business Confidence in February reversed the increase of 10.4pts in January, and Business Confidence is now 16.8pts below the long-term average of 112.6. Now just 39.1% (down 10.2ppts of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 59.3% (up 11.1ppts) expect bad times’. Some 41.2% (down 5.5ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since the early stages of the pandemic in March 2020) while 28.1% (up 7.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since in March 2020). Meanwhile, 46.5% (down 1.8ppts) of businesses say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 46.2% (up 2.5ppts) said it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED