O75 Public Administration

Turnbull says cabinet was told robo-debt was legal

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Original article by Tom Burton
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 7-Mar-23

The royal commission into the robodebt scheme heard evidence from former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull on Monday. Cabinet agreed to the controversial scheme in 2015, prior to Turnbull becoming prime minister; he said cabinet was told that the scheme was lawful, and he was therefore focused on the accuracy and fairness of the scheme rather than its legality. Turnbull also revealed that he recommended in early 2017 that the Digital Transformation Agency should be tasked with improving the scheme, but said that this did not occur.

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AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO THE ROBODEBT SCHEME

A plan for unions, not nation

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 4 : 7-Mar-23

Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association CEO Steve Knott has backed claims by former Productivity Commission chair Gary Banks that Australia is going "backwards" on industrial relations. Knott contends that the federal government’s changes to industrial relations laws are all about trying to revive falling union membership numbers, rather than what is good for Australia. Industrial Relations Minister Tony Burke has dismissed Banks’ criticisms, suggesting that he is making the case for how "the nation can be better off if people have less secure jobs on lower wages", with Burke saying that was not just his view.

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AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES AND ENERGY EMPLOYER ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS

Australia faces the threat of war with China within three years – and we’re not ready

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Original article by Peter Hartcher, Matthew Knott
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 7-Mar-23

The federal government’s review of Australia’s defence needs will soon be released, and it will have consulted a number of experts. They include some who have conducted their own review on behalf of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, with their review concluding that the overwhelming source of danger to Australia is from China. The experts suggest that Australia faces the prospect of war with China in as little as three years’ time, and that Australia is not prepared for such a conflict. China has long stated its desire to reclaim Taiwan, and has indicated that it is prepared to take military action to do so. US President Joe Biden has committed to coming to Taiwan’s help if it is invaded, and Australia would be expected to lend its support.

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Inflation: Act now or hurt like 1990s

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Ewin Hannan, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Mar-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to announce a 10th consecutive increase in the cash rate on Tuesday, and some economists believe that there is potential for up to four rate rises by June. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says households face a tough time in coming months, and they must expect more rate rises. Evans warns that it is "now or never" if the RBA is to get inflation under control, and he contends that failing to do so would risk the prospect of interest rates approaching the levels that were seen in the 1990s. ACTU secretary Sally McManus has called for a pause in interest rate rises, arguing that Australians are "seriously hurting" and the rate rises to date have achieved the RBA’s goal of running down households’ savings.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ACTU

Labor concedes super tax rise to hit more retirees

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 7-Mar-23

The federal government’s plan to increase the tax on earnings on superannuation balances above $3 million from 15 to 30 per cent is currently only slated to impact 0.5 per cent of all superannuation account holders. However, the government has confirmed that this will rise to one in 10 people within 30 years, because the cap will not be indexed to inflation. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has stated that if a future government wants to index the cap, then that would be their prerogative.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Billions more in military spending won’t be enough to counter China: Morrison

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Original article by Paul Sakkal
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 7-Mar-23

Former prime minister Scott Morrison says Australia’s defence budget should be increased to at least 2.5 per cent of GDP, compared with less than two per cent at present. Morrison contends that a big increase in defence spending is needed in order to counter the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific region; however, he concedes that Australia could not hope to defeat China in a military conflict, so alliances with countries such as the US and India are vital. The Chinese government recently revealed plans to increase its defence spending by seven per cent in 2023, to $330 billion. In contrast, Australia’s annual defence budget is currently $48.7bn, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wants to lift this to more than two per cent of GDP.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Australian full-time employment hit a record high above 8.9 million in February as unemployment falls 0.6% to 10.1%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Mar-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 86,000 to 1.52 million (10.1% of the workforce) in February. Underemployment was down 59,000 to 1.37 million (9.1% of the workforce). A total of 2.89 million Australians (19.2% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in February, down 145,000. Meanwhile, employment increased by 99,000 to 13,517,000 in February. The increase was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 48,000 to a new record high of 8,949,000; part-time employment also increased, up 51,000 to 4,568,000. Roy Morgan’s under-employment figure of 9.1% is 3% points higher than the ABS estimate of 6.1% for January. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that compared to a year ago, the increased immigration and faster population growth than during the pandemic is boosting figures across the workforce. The workforce has grown rapidly over the last year and is up 595,000 to 15,038,000 – driven by both an increase in jobs (up 301,000 to 13,517,000) and a similar-sized increased in unemployment (up 294,000 to 1,521,000).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Albanese Government support down 2% points after superannuation changes: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Mar-23

Albanese Government support is down 2% points to 54.5% compared to the L-NP on 45.5% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll – the closest result so far this year. The second consecutive weekly drop in support for the Albanese Government came after Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced changes to the taxation rules for superannuation. Australians with over $3 million in superannuation will now face an increased level of taxation and importantly the limit has not been indexed to inflation – which is currently at a 32-year high with an annual rate of 7.8%. Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged this week at 96 with 40% of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ while 44% say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. This Roy Morgan Poll was conducted over the last week with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,216 electors. Watch out for more details on the latest Roy Morgan Poll in today’s Market Research Update video.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Workers miss out as gulf between wages and inflation widens

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Original article by Sezen Bakan
The New Daily – Page: Online : 6-Mar-23

Seek senior economist Matt Cowgill says Australia may have already seen the peak of its salary growth, with the Seek Advertised Salary Index rising by just 0.2 per cent from December to January; it was the second month in a row that growth had slowed. Real wages had their biggest fall on record in 2022, while Greg Jericho from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work claims the link between company profits and wages has weakened; he contends that industrial relations policy for the last 20 years has been all about low wages growth

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SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED. CENTRE FOR FUTURE WORK

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 3.6pts to 79.8 in February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Feb-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 3.6pts to 79.8 in February, to a level that is by any definition very subdued. Consumers’ net perceptions of their current personal financial situation fell 10 points to -30%, the lowest level since 2008. A net 7% of consumers expect to be better off this time next year, unchanged on a month ago. A net 35% think it is a bad time to buy a major household item, down 7 points. Meanwhile, net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 1 point to -41%. The 5-year-ahead measure eased from -1% to -3% on a net basis.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN LIMITED