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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence softens ahead of RBA interest rates decision, down 1.3pts to 89.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts to 89.3 in the week to 10 August. However, Consumer Confidence is now 5.4 points above the same week a year ago (83.9), and 2.5pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.8. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, but down in Queensland and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 40% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 13% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 26% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

More than 6.7 million Australians work from home

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

New research from Roy Morgan shows that over 6.7 million Australians (representing 46% of employed Australians) work from home at least some of the time, paid or unpaid. The remaining 54% work entirely in-person. A slim majority of full-time employees (51%) work from home at least some of the time, compared to 36% of part-time employees. Australians living in capital cities are more likely to work from home than those who live in regional areas. A majority of workers from Australia’s largest cities of Sydney (55%) and Melbourne (52%) work from home, as do 51% in the nation’s capital in Canberra/ACT. Working from home rates are lower in the smaller capital cities led by Hobart (45%) and Adelaide (44%), and followed by Brisbane (43%) and Perth (40%). In contrast, regional areas show lower adoption of working from home, led by Queensland (40%), (NSW 39%) and Victoria (37%).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

One of Australia’s largest exports to the US escapes tariff hit

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Original article by Olivia Ireland
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

US President Donald Trump has confirmed that gold imports will continue to be exempt from his administration’s tariffs regime. Trump has clarified the situation in response to the Customs & Border Protection agency’s recent ruling that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars will be subject to the country-based tariffs regime that took effect on 7 August. Official data shows that Australia exported $11bn worth of non-monetary gold to the US during the first four months of 2025, compared with $2.95bn for the whole of 2024.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

RBA’s grim growth warning

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Aug-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its forecast for productivity growth in the medium-term from one per cent to just 0.7 per cent. RBA governor Michele Bullock says lower productivity growth is already resulting in slower growth in real wages; she adds that the central bank cannot do anything to lift productivity, and the outlook for this metric will depend on what the federal government does in response to its economic reform summit next week. The RBA has also warned that the domestic economy can now sustain a GDP growth rate of just two per cent a year. Meanwhile, economists expect another official interest rate cut by the end of 2025, after the RBA reduced it by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent on Tuesday.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

In July Australian unemployment was virtually unchanged at 10.3%, but under-employment surged to 10.9%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

In July 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell by 10,000 to 1,644,000 (down 0.1% to 10.3% of the workforce). The small dip in unemployment was driven by fewer people looking for part-time work (down 157,000 to 949,000), which was offset by people looking for full-time work (up 147,000 to 695,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.74 million Australians (up 1% to 10.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 158,000 from June). In total, 3.38 million Australians (21.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July. Meanwhile, Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,930,000 in July, up 43,000 on a month ago, and representing 69% of Australians aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Lower interest rates a welcome relief, critical banks pass on full cut

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Original article by
Australian Retailers Association – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

Retailers have welcomed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s announcement of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut as a vital confidence boost for the sector’ recovery. The Australian Retailers Association and the National Retail Association said that lower interest rates will encourage much-needed discretionary spending. The ARA’s CEO Chris Rodwell says the two clear messages that stem from the decision are that the RBA remain open to further cuts in 2025 – given that retail growth and consumer confidence remain subdued – and it is critical that banks act now to pass on the full rate cut. Rodwell adds that a stronger Australian economic trajectory cannot happen without a retail recovery.

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AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, NATIONAL RETAIL ASSOCIATION LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

New Zealand: In July, National and Labour tied at 31%; National-led Government retains clear lead

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Aug-25

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for July 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) virtually unchanged on 51% (down 0.5% points) and the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 46% (up 1.5% points). For the tenth straight month neither major party has managed to secure a third of the vote. Within the National-led Government support for National was down 1% point to 31%, support for ACT was down 1% point to 10.5% and support for NZ First increased 1.5% points to 9.5% (the highest support for NZ First since the last New Zealand Election). For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was up 2.5% points to 31%, support for the Greens increased 0.5% points to 11.5%, and support for the Maori Party dropped 1.5% to 3.5%. A further 3% (down 1% point) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 832 electors from 30 June to 27 July. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell 11.5pts to 83.5 in July.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.9pts to 90.6 – first rating above 90 for over three years since May 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Aug-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.9pts to 90.6 in the week to 3 August. Consumer Confidence is now 9.3 points above the same week a year ago (81.3), and 3.9pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.7. Analysis by State shows increases across the board with all five mainland States up this week, led by Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia – all at 90 or above. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 40% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest this figure has been since May 2022). Looking forward, 28% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (down 6ppts) also expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 12% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up slightly in July as business grow more confident about their prospects

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Aug-25

In July 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 0.6pts to 103.0, despite the Reserve Bank electing to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.85% amid widespread expectations of a cut to interest rates. Business Confidence is now 7pts below the long-term average of 110, although it is up 7.9pts from July 2024. Now 32.2% (up 5.8ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 33.5% (down 7.1ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 40.9% (up 1.3ppts) of respondents expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.3% (down 1.4ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for July are based on 1,246 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Offshore option as Japan frigate wins

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 6-Aug-25

Defence Minister Richard Marles has advised that a contract for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build three general purpose frigates will be signed in early 2026. Marles says the Japanese frigate is the best option for Australia; Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems also pitched for the contract. The frigates will be built in Japan, and are slated to be delivered between 2029 and 2034. An additional eight Mogami-class frigates will be built by Austal at its Henderson shipyard in Perth. Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy has conceded that the shipyard may not be able to accommodate the first three vessels to be built in Australia, but Western Australia’s Premier Roger Cook says they must be built in his state.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE, MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES LIMITED, THYSSENKRUPP MARINE SYSTEMS, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET