O75 Public Administration

Real wages growth story is an ugly one

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 18-Jan-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has talked up the fact that wages grew by 3.1 per cent in the year to November. This was the fastest growth in wages since September 2013, and Chalmers has highlighted the fact that average wage growth has been just 2.3 per cent annually over the last decade. However, an inflation rate of 7.3 per cent means that real wages shrank by 4.2 per cent in the year to September, and average annual real wage growth over the last decade was just 0.4 per cent. The Treasury and the Reserve Bank do not anticipate real wage growth until 2024.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence rebounded by 5.8 points to 96.0 in December as Australians spent big for Christmas

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jan-23

In December 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 5.8 points to 96.0, largely recovering from the 6.4 point decline in November. The increase in Business Confidence came despite the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise interest rates for an eighth straight month in early December. However, Business Confidence is 16.8pts below the long-term average of 112.8. Now 39.2% (up 5.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 39.4% (up 5.9ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years. Meanwhile, 58.7% of businesses expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year, and 54.5% expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years.’ Some 47.3% (up 2.6ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 39.6% (down 3.5ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Chalmers still open to JobSeeker increase

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Jan-23

Australian Council of Social Service CEO Cassandra Goldie has called for the JobSeeker payment to be increased from $48 per day to at least $73. The Greens in turn advocate increasing it to $88 per day. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has indicated that he may be open to increasing JobSeeker, after some members of the federal government’s economic inclusion advisory committee supported such a move. However, he has reiterated the need to take into account other pressures on the economy. Gareth Aird from the Commonwealth Bank cautions that increasing JobSeeker would boost inflation and may create a disincentive for unemployed people to work.

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AUSTRALIAN COUNCIL OF SOCIAL SERVICE, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 87.7 in second week of January – highest since September 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jan-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 87.7 in the week ended 15 January, at its highest level since late September 2022 (87.8). However, Consumer Confidence is 10.5pts below the same week a year ago (97.9), although it is now only 1pt below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence was mixed around Australia and was up in Victoria and Western Australia (for the first time this year), but down in NSW, Queensland and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 35% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since March 2022), while 29% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

No vote would be bad look: Albanese

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 2 : 11-Jan-23

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Australia’s international reputation would be damaged if the referendum on an Indigenous voice to parliament is defeated. He says a ‘no’ vote would send a bad message with regard to reconciliation, as well as the in the way Australia is perceived internationally. Albanese contends that the voice would be subservient to the parliament and will only be a voice of consultation on matters that affect Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders. Former prime minister Tony Abbott has cautioned that changing the Constitution should never be done lightly.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Bowen considers import carbon tariff

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 11-Jan-23

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen says the federal government may be open to implementing a Carbon Border Adjustment Scheme along the lines of the one that will be introduced by the European Commission. Bowen says it is the right time for Australia to "cautiously" consider a tariff on imported products that have a large carbon footprint. However, such a scheme could potentially affect Australia’s key trading partners such as China, Japan and the US. Bowen says any decision on such a scheme will be not be made by July, when changes to the safeguard mechanism will take effect.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER

Unions push for a wage deal levy for non-members

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Original article by Angus Thompson
The Age – Page: Online : 11-Jan-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that union membership fell to a record low of just 12.5 per cent in 2022. Several unions have called for a long-standing ban on imposing bargaining fees on non-members to be overturned. The Health Services Union’s national president Gerard Hayes and Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union secretary Steve Murphy are amongst those who contend that workers who benefit from union-negotiated enterprise agreements but are not members of the union should pay a fee. Meanwhile, the ACTU has used its submission to a migration review to call for migrant workers to be inducted by unions and be given the opportunity to join one.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, HEALTH SERVICES UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, ACTU

Labor caps carbon price

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 11-Jan-23

Australia’s 215 biggest industrial polluters will be required to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 4.9 per cent annually between 2023 and 2030, under the federal government’s changes to the safeguard mechanism. The changes take effect on 1 July, and will apply to sectors such as mining, oil and gas, manufacturing and transport. The government will cap the carbon price for heavy emitters at $75 per tonne, although it will rise in line with the inflation rate. The government will also provide $600m from the Powering the Regions Fund to assist trade-­exposed businesses and regions to ­invest in technologies that will lower their carbon emissions.

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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.9pts to 87.4 in traditional New Year’s bounce – highest since September 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jan-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.9pts to 87.4 in the week ended 8 January, to reach its highest level since late September 2022 (87.8). However, Consumer Confidence is 18.6pts below the same week a year ago (106.0), although it is now only 1.3pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but down in Western Australia. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 33% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (down 5ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 9% (up 3ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Worry about Japan not China, says Beijing’s top envoy in Australia

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Original article by Matthew Knott
The Age – Page: Online : 11-Jan-23

China’s ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian says the relationship between the two nations is at "a critical stage of turnaround". Xiao has claimed that the AUKUS alliance is targeting China and buying nuclear-powered submarines will not solve Australia’s security concerns. Xiao contends that Japan is a greater military threat than his nation, given that Japan has never officially apologised for its conduct during World War II, including the bombing of Darwin and the mistreatment of prisoners of war. He argues that the lack of an apology means that Japan could potentially go to war with Australia again. However, Australia and Japan have established close security ties in recent decades.

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