O75 Public Administration

Lowe keeps nation guessing on rates

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 2-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that official interest rates will rise in 2022. Lowe stated that although inflation has increased, it is not yet sustainably within the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. This has been identified as a prerequisite for increasing the cash rate, which was left at a record low of 0.1 per cent on Tuesday. The RBA will also end its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, Lowe has forecast that core inflation will peak at 3.25 per cent, compared with 2.6 per cent at present, while he expects the unemployment rate to fall below four per cent later in 2022.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations dropped 0.1% points to 4.8% in December; down from seven year high in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Feb-22

In December 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.8% annually over the next two years, down 0.1% points from the seven-year high reached in November. The small decline ended a record six straight months of increases from June to November. Inflation Expectations are now 0.1% points above the long-term average of 4.7% and 1.2% points higher than in December 2020 (3.6%). A look at Inflation Expectations by socio-economic quintile shows increases across the board since the measure reached a low in August 2020 during Victoria’s second wave of COVID-19. Australians in the highest ‘AB Quintile’ have experienced the largest increase since mid-2020, with their Inflation Expectations rising 1.8% points to 4.1% in December 2021. However, this is still significantly lower than all four other socio-economic quintiles. On a State-based level, Inflation Expectations were highest in two States, with large regional populations led by Tasmania at 5.5% and also well above the national average in Queensland at 5.2%. Queensland is unique as a State with more people living in regional areas than the capital city of Brisbane.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1.7pts to 101.8pts as Omicron wave of COVID-19 continues to recede

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Feb-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.7pts to 101.8 during the fourth week of January; however, Consumer Confidence is still 10.3pts below the same week a year ago (112.1), and it is now just above the 2022 weekly average of 101.5. On a State-based level, Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales (up 6pts) and Western Australia (up 4.5pts) – the week after WA Premier Mark McGowan announced an extension to his State’s border closure – but it was down slightly in Victoria (down 2.6pts) and Queensland (down 0.6pts). Now 27% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 18% (up 1ppt expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. However, just 15% (up 4ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 36% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

NZ’s new Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon boosts support for National by 5% points – highest since March 2020 (pre-pandemic)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-22

Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government was down 2.5% points to 44% in December – the lowest combined level of support for the Government since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took office in October 2017. Support for the Labour Party was down 0.5% points to 35.5% and support for the Greens decreased by 2% points to 8.5%. In contrast, support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government increased by 6% points to 50%, its highest since Ardern came to power. The increase was driven by support for the National Party rising 5% points to 31.5%, to its highest since March 2020 (37%), while support for Act NZ was up 1% point to a new record high of 18.5%. Support for the Maori Party fell 2% points to 1%. New Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon took over leadership of the National Party from former leader Judith Collins on November 30, and the latest Roy Morgan Poll shows that the change is already receiving a positive response from the New Zealand electorate. This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 967 electors during December.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITEDMORGAN POLLLABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND)GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALANDNATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALANDACT NEW ZEALANDTHE MAORI PARTY

Cancer screening rates drop amid closures

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 1-Feb-22

Data from the Productivity Commission shows that screening for bowel, breast and cervical cancer declined at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, with screening rates down as much as five per cent in high-risk groups. A report released by Cancer Australia in 2021 stated that a decline in cancer testing during the pandemic would increase the likelihood of people being diagnosed with conditions too late to treat or more advanced disease. The Commission’s data was released as part of an annual report on government services across the country, with the report showing that recurrent expenditure on health services by state, territory and federal governments was worth an estimated $122.2 billion in the period covered by the report.

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AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSIONCANCER AUSTRALIA

Record debt to squeeze rate hike

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 1-Feb-22

Data from the Reserve Bank of Australia may strengthen the case for tightening monetary policy earlier than anticipated. The nation’s total household debt to income ratio rose to 185 per cent in 2021. This is slightly below the previous peak in 2019, although it is about 25 per cent higher than in 2009, when the central bank last began increasing the cash rate. Meanwhile, the ratio of owner-occupier housing debt to household disposable has risen to a record high of 103 per cent. Brendan Rynne of KPMG expects the RBA to increase the cash rate to 0.25 per cent in November. He adds that the central bank is likely to announce the end of quantitative easing at its board meeting on Tuesday.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIAKPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Albanese denies going soft on Beijing

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Original article by Geoff ChambersHeidi Han
The Australian – Page: 2 : 1-Feb-22

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has rejected suggestions by senior government ministers that he has "gone soft" on China. He says he holds the same views on issues such as Taiwan and the human rights abuses of Uighurs as the Coalition does. Albanese says he accepts that China is operating concentration camps for Uighurs, while he claims he had been clear in his previous assertion that the relationship between Australia and China would remain "in a difficult position", regardless of who wins the upcoming federal election.

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Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumped 7.2pts to 120.2 in December – up strongly in NSW, Victoria and Queensland – before the full impact of the Omicron variant hit

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-22

In December 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 7.2pts (+6.4%) to 120.2. The increase came as the country opened up, with border closures ending in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory during the month in the lead-up to Christmas. On a State-based level the big monthly increases in December were in New South Wales, up 8pts (+6.9%) to 124.6, Victoria, up 10.9pts (+10.1%) to 118.9 and Queensland, up 17pts (+17.2%) to 116.0. Business Confidence in December 2021 was at its highest since the Delta wave of COVID-19 began in June 2021 (128.3). However, despite the monthly increase, Business Confidence was 3pts (-2.4%) lower than in December 2020 (123.2). Businesses grew increasingly confident about the Australian economy’s prospects in December, with 63.1% (up 7ppts from November) of businesses expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year and 53.1% (up 6.5ppts) expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

NSW government has always known Covid deaths would rise after reopening: Perrottet

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Original article by Michael McGowan
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 1-Feb-22

New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet has defended his government’s decision to ease COVID-19 restrictions in mid-December, following the revelation that health officials had warned days earlier that the Omicron variant could result in a surge in infections. Perrottet has also conceded that the government had been aware that case numbers, hospitalisation rates and deaths from Covid would rise when the state’s economy reopened. NSW recorded 13,026 new COVID-19 cases and 27 additional deaths from the current outbreak on Monday. There were 10,053 new cases and eight deaths in Victoria, while Queensland reported 7,462 new cases and three deaths.

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NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Private hospital staff diverted to public system on deadliest day of Covid pandemic

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Original article by Mostafa Rachwani, Sarah Martin
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 19-Jan-22

The federal government has activated emergency measures which will make more than 100,000 employees of private hospitals available to work in public hospitals that are dealing with staff shortages and a rising COVID-19 caseload. The activation of the surge plan coincided with Australia recording 77 deaths from the coronavirus on Tuesday; it was the nation’s biggest one-day toll since the pandemic began, and included 36 deaths in NSW, 22 in Victoria and 16 in Queensland. NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant says 33 of the people who died in the state had been vaccinated, although most had not received a booster shot. There were 29,830 new COVID-19 cases in NSW on Tuesday, a total of 20,180 in Victoria and 15,962 in Queensland.

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NEW SOUTH WALES. MINISTRY OF HEALTH