O75 Public Administration

FOI documents show Dutton’s ‘captain’s call’ to make senior Liberal head of defence thinktank

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Original article by Tory Shepherd
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

The former Coalition government appointed Justin Bassi to succeed Peter Jennings as executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute shortly before it called the 21 May election. Bassi was the chief of staff to foreign affairs minister Marise Payne at the time; documents obtained via freedom of information show that former defence minister Peter Dutton selected Bassi for the role even though the ASPI itself preferred one of the other five candidates. The ASPI is partially funded by the Department of Defence, but its charter states that it is independent. Labor had warned Dutton against making a "political captain’s call" regarding the ASPI appointment.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Worst of Covid over, experts say

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Original article by Natasha Robinson
The Australian – Page: 5 : 10-Aug-22

Infectious diseases expert Professor Peter Collignon believes that Australia’s winter COVID-19 wave has peaked. Infectious diseases modeller Romain Ragonnet says barring the emergence of major new variants, future waves are likely to be smaller and less severe, and COVID-19 will eventually become a seasonal event like influenza. Just 26,746 new COVID-19 cases were reported nationwide on Tuesday, compared with 35,659 a week earlier. NSW reported 10,043 new cases and 25 deaths, while there were 6,380 new infections and 44 deaths in Victoria.

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Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 5.9% in July – the highest monthly rating since August 2012

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

In July 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.9% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points from June. Inflation Expectations in July are now 1.8% points higher than a year ago, and 2.5% points above the near record low of 3.4% in July 2020. A look at Inflation Expectations by socio-economic quintile shows large increases across the board since the measure hit record lows in mid-2020 during Victoria’s second COVID-19 wave. Inflation Expectations are lowest for the top ‘AB Quintile’ at 5.3%, although this is up 2.8% points since mid-2020 – the equal largest increase of any socio-economic quintile. Inflation Expectations are progressively higher for each subsequent socio-economic quintile. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were highest in Tasmania in July at 7%, far higher than any other State. Next highest was the largest State of NSW at 6.3% – also well above the national average. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 7,484 Australians aged 14+ in July 2022.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment increases to 8.5% in July as workforce swells to 14.7 million Australians

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.25 million Australians (8.5% of the workforce) were unemployed in July, up 121,000 (0.7%) from June. The number of Australians looking for full-time work was up 85,000 to 494,000 in July, and the number of people looking for part-time work was up 36,000 to 752,000. Some 1.27 million Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work – up 44,000 from June. In total, 2.52 million Australians (17.1% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July, up 165,000 on June. Meanwhile, employment increased by 74,000 to 13,440,000 in July, driven by an increase in full-time employment (up 8,000 to 8,884,000); part-time employment rose by 66,000 to 4,556,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for July is more than double the ABS estimate for June of 3.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops by 3.8pts to 80.3 after RBA raises interest rates for fourth straight month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.8pts to 80.3 in the week ended 7 August. It is now 18.3pts below the same week a year ago (98.6). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 11.6pts below the 2022 weekly average of 91.9 and at its lowest since early April 2020 during the early stages of the pandemic. On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down across all five mainland States this week with the largest falls in NSW, South Australia and Western Australia. Now 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 29% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 35% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 45% (up 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since September 2020). Meanwhile, just 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Dutton presses button on the nuclear debate

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 5 : 3-Aug-22

Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says the energy crisis has demonstrated the need for more dispatchable power in the electricity grid. He adds that the nation must have an honest and informed debate on the benefits and costs of nuclear energy. Dutton has advised that the Coalition will hold an internal party review on the issue of nuclear energy; he says it is mature, proven technology that can provide reliable, emissions-free, base-load electricity. Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable has welcomed the Coalition’s commitment to looking at the option of nuclear energy, but Energy Minister Chris Bowen contends that more renewable energy is the solution to rising power prices.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER

No Covid re-run: Social, market researchers on consumer mood say 70% tightening belts; young men stressed, third-life crisis at 30 – but 24% free-spending so category discounts not required

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Aug-22

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine, Southern Cross Austereo’s Jasmine Beech and veteran qualitative consumer researcher Neer Korn unpack what’s coming down the track in a new podcast. Social market researchers think the deepening cost of living crisis will play out very differently to Covid. But there are parallels with previous bust cycles. The "lipstick effect" comes into play, and certain categories – homeware, necessities, some everyday luxury branded goods – should hold up. While 70 per cent of Australians report making some cutbacks, a quarter of the population will keep spending – and brands shouldn’t think about discounting to that cohort. For the broader population, retailers must communicate price hikes honestly or lose community trust earned during Covid.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, SOUTHERN CROSS AUSTEREO PTY LTD

Climate change bill set to pass

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 3-Aug-22

The federal government’s climate bill may be put to a vote in the House of ­Representatives as early as ­Wednesday. The bill to enshrine a 43 per cent per cent emissions reduction target in law is expected to be passed after the Greens and teal independents pushed for amendments that are likely to be accepted by Labor. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has indicated that the Coalition will review its emissions reduction targets ahead of the next election. The Senate is likely to vote on the climate bill in September, with the government requiring the support of the Greens and at least one crossbencher.

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AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 2.4pts to 94.9 – lowest since September 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Aug-22

In July 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell 2.4pts to 94.9. This is the third straight monthly fall and the first time the index fell for three straight months since the long lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria in August 2021. Business Confidence is now at its lowest since September 2020 (85.6), and 18.5pts below the long-term average of 113.4. The monthly decline in Business Confidence was driven by a fall in confidence about the prospects for the Australian economy over the next five years, with only 37.6% of businesses now expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years, down 2ppts from a month ago. Meanwhile, 41.4% (down 0.1ppts) expect the business to be ‘better off’ this time next year and 38.8% (up 0.2ppts) say the business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Higher interest rates tipped to bite

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Aug-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that higher interest rates are necessary to return inflation to the target range of 2-3 per cent and to create a sustainable balance of demand and supply. Financial markets are now pricing in a cash rate of three per cent by December, following the RBA’s third consecutive increase of 50 basis points on Tuesday. The cash rate is now at a six-year high of 1.85 per cent, and many economists expect a rate rise of either 25 or 50 basis points in September. Meanwhile, the RBA has downgraded its economic growth forecast for both 2023 and 2024 to just 1.75 per cent, while it expects the official unemployment rate to reach four per cent by the end of 2024.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA