O75 Public Administration

Unemployment and under-employment soar in Queensland during the pandemic but are relatively unchanged in NSW & Victoria

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-21

A special analysis of Roy Morgan’s latest unemployment estimates by State during the June 2021 quarter compared to the December 2019 quarter (prior to the pandemic), shows significant changes in two States. Queensland appears as the big ‘loser’ of the COVID-19 pandemic so far; total unemployment and under-employment is now at 23.5% of the workforce, an increase of 6.6% points since the December 2019 quarter – and now clearly higher than any other State. In contrast, South Australia has handled the pandemic better than any other state on the employment front, with total unemployment and under-employment now at 17.4% of the workforce and below the national average – a decline of 6.5% points on the December 2019 quarter. South Australia has had fewer days in lockdown of any State and is the only mainland State not to experience a lockdown so far during 2021. However, despite spending more time in lockdown than the other States, the lowest unemployment and under-employment is again to be found in the two largest States. New South Wales had the lowest unemployment and under-employment of any State at 16.5% of the workforce in the June 2021quarter, an increase of 1.3% points, while Victoria was second at 17.1% (up 0.1% points). down 0.4% points on late 2019.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Sydney’s lockdown extended by a week

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Original article by Alexandra Smith, Lucy Cormack, Mary Ward
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 7-Jul-21

The New South Wales government is set to announce that the COVID-19 lockdown in Greater Sydney will be extended until at least 16 July, following a crisis cabinet meeting. Restrictions had been slated to be eased on 9 July, but the state has recorded 18 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours; just 11 of these cases were self-isolating for the entire period they were infectious. The new cases include the sixth resident of an aged-care facility, who had been fully vaccinated; four workers at the facility have also tested positive. Meanwhile, Sydney students will return to remote learning when the school holidays end on 13 July, although schools in regional areas will re-open.

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Masks off, footy crowds of up to 75 per cent in Victoria

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Original article by Shannon Deery
Herald Sun – Page: 1 & 8 : 7-Jul-21

Senior Victorian government sources have confirmed that the state’s COVID-19 restrictions will be further eased in coming days. Amongst other things, office-based staff will no longer be required to wear a face mask at work, although masks will still be necessary in indoor settings such as public transport. Bill Lang of Small Business Australia has welcomed the move, saying that getting people to return to the Melbourne CBD is vital to the survival of hospitality and retail businesses in the city. The government is also expected to increase crowd numbers at football matches to 75 per cent of the venue’s capacity, and 50 per cent for live theatre. Victoria has recorded a sixth consecutive day with no locally-acquired COVID-19 cases.

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SMALL BUSINESS AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 4.4pts to 107.8 after multiple major Australian cities placed into lockdown

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.4pts to 107.8 on July 3/4, after multiple Australian cities were concurrently placed under lockdown. Consumer Confidence plunged in Sydney (down 10pts) and Brisbane (down 8.7pts) and is now sitting below the 2021 weekly average of 111.2; however, it remains 15.7 points higher than the same week a year ago (92.1). Now 27% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 15% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 16% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 19% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 41% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 24% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Employment surge turns up heat on rates

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Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Jul-21

Further indications that the Australian economy is continuing to strengthen may prompt the Reserve Bank to increase the cash rate earlier than expected. There was three per cent growth in job advertisements during June, according to data from the ANZ Bank, and the number of job ads is now 39.1 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, revised data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail spending increased by 0.4 per cent in May and 7.7 per cent over the year to May. The COVID-19 lockdown in Greater Sydney is tipped to hit retail sales for June, although economists expect any impact to be short-lived.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Breaches threaten Sydney lockdown exit

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Original article by Jill Margo, Finbar O’Mallon
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 6-Jul-21

New South Wales has reported 35 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, although 24 were in isolation while infectious and another four had been partially isolating. The new cases include three people who attended a party at an inner-Sydney hotel in breach of lockdown rules, as well as two additional residents of an aged-care home. There are now 312 active cases state-wide. Professor Raina MacIntyre believes that the state must record no more than five new cases of community transmission on 8 July for lockdown restrictions in Greater Sydney to be eased on the following day. Meanwhile, more than 600 health workers at two Sydney hospitals are self-isolating after being deemed to be close contacts of an unvaccinated student nurse who had worked at both hospitals while she was infectious with Covid-19.

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UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

Is the COVID-19 honeymoon over for New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern?

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jul-21

Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government dropped 5% points to 51% in June – the lowest for the Government since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Support for the Labour Party was down 6.5% points to 38.5%, while support for the Greens was up 1.5% points to 12.5%. The governing parties are now just 7.5% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/Maori Party on 43.5%, up 4.5% points since May. Support for National was up 1% point to 29.5% in June and support for Act NZ was up 2.5% points to a record high of 11.5%. Support for the Maori Party increased by 1% point to 2.5%. A small minority of 5.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for NZ First down 0.5% points to 1.5% and The Opportunities Party (TOP) up 0.5% points to 2% in June. The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 951 electors during June. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 10pts in June to 124 – the lowest it has been since October 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY, THE OPPORTUNITIES PARTY

Feds should lead the charge on payroll tax reform: ACCI

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 6-Jul-21

Payroll tax is consistently one of the most pressing issues for business, according to a survey by the Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry, and is viewed as an impediment to employment and economic growth. The ACCI has called the federal government to lead the way in its abolition by making up some of the revenue that would be lost by the states and territories if it was scrapped, with the states having levied almost $27 billion in payroll taxes in 2018-19. One possible option to replace money lost by scrapping payroll tax would be for the federal government to increase the GST and diverting the extra money raised back to the states.

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AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.1 in June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 114.1 in June, a little under its historical average of 120. Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation rose 7 points to +14%, by far its strongest post-COVID level; meanwhile, a net 22% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 5 points. In addition, a net 22% of consumers think it is a good time to buy a major household item, up 3 points to a post-COVID high. Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook rose 4 points to +3%, and the five-year outlook fell 8 points to +10%. CPI inflation expectations jumped 0.7%pts to 5.1%, a record high in data that starts in 2010.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Miners, LNG insulated from tax

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Weekend Australian – Page: 21 & 25 : 3-Jul-21

The OECD estimates that the new minimum corporate tax rate of 15 per cent could generate up to $US150bn ($201bn) in additional global tax revenue. The global tax regime has been backed by 130 countries and jurisdictions, including Australia; they have agreed to exclude ‘extractive industries’ such as mining and energy from the regime, which will make Australian companies in these sectors more attractive to international investors. Jones Day tax partner Niv Tadmore says large global companies will no longer be able to shelter their profits in other jurisdictions to avoid paying tax. This will include digital giants such as Google and Facebook, which have been widely criticised over the amount of tax they pay.

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, JONES DAY, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED