O75 Public Administration

Interesting times for US pollsters

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Original article by Michele Levine, Gary Morgan, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Nov-20

Not since 1948 has US polling been so poorly regarded. Regardless of whether or not Donald Trump is re-elected, he has proven the polls wrong again. Since the 1960s, we at Roy Morgan have known, and reported, that with polling there is a bias towards the party or leader that everyone ‘thinks will win’. This is especially the case with telephone polls, robo-polling and online polls. In the US this phenomenon (the bias towards the party/leader people ‘think will win’) was demonstrated to the extreme – as it did in the previous Presidential election. Essentially pollsters didn’t interview enough people who were ‘intending’ to vote for Trump; and if they did interview Trump supporters many were too frightened to say they would vote for Trump. The best way to measure ‘voting intention’ accurately is with ‘face-to-face’ interviews conducted with a representative sample of people using a ‘secret ballot’. Of course things can change in politics, as voters did in Queensland, when Pauline Hansen’s vote almost halved when she publicly called to ‘open’ Queensland borders. However in the US the polls simply got it wrong – with Trump concentrating on the economy – and blue collar jobs – while Biden and the media were focused on COVID.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Have ‘the guts to open’, like NSW

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Original article by Finbar O’Mallon, Jenny Wiggins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-Nov-20

The New South Wales government will reopen the state’s borders to travellers from Victoria on 23 November. Premier Gladys Berejiklian says it is in the national interest for other states to reopen their borders with NSW, and she has urged them to do so. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says the NSW government’s decision is a sign of confidence in his state’s health system. However, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says her state will monitor the situation in Victoria during the next month before considering any move to ease border restrictions.

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NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET

Unions push for better protections as 80% of employees say they want to keep working from home

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Original article by Paul Karp
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 4-Nov-20

The ACTU proposes to adopt a charter of rights about working from home. The charter covers issues such as a safe working environment and the right to be compensated for all hours worked from home. Meanwhile, the ACTU has released a survey of 10,000 workers which found that 81 per cent want to keep working from home if they have sufficient support from their employer. Some 47% of respondents said they are more productive at home, while 49 per cent reported experiencing a mental health issue due to working from home.

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ACTU

China to halt key Australian imports in sweeping retaliation

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Original article by
Bloomberg – Page: Online : 4-Nov-20

Sources have indicated that Chinese traders have been ordered to cease buying at least seven categories of Australian commodities, amid growing tensions between the two nations. Traders are said to have been verbally told to stop buying Australian coal, barley, copper ore and concentrate, sugar, timber, wine and lobster from 6 November. However, iron ore is not believed to be included in the list of barred commodities at present. Chinese media reports have also suggested that a ban on Australian wheat will also be imposed.

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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for ninth straight week, up 0.2pts to 99.9 – up in Melbourne as 16 week lockdown ends

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Nov-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.2pts to 99.9 on the weekend of October 31/ November 1. It is now 5.7pts above the 2020 weekly average of 94.2, but it is still 13.6pts lower than a year ago (113.5). Consumer Confidence has now increased for nine straight weeks and is up 9.7pts since ending August at 90.2, and is at its highest since March 14/15 (100.0). Now 22% (down 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 34% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 36% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 16% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 12% of Australians (up 3ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since March, while 30% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since July 2019). Meanwhile, 35% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA’s shot in zero-sum rates game

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Nov-20

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has flagged the use of "additional monetary policy options" if necessary, after reducing the cash rate to a record low and announcing a quantitative easing program. Lowe has indicated that the cash rate will remain at 0.1 per cent for 3-5 years, while the RBA’s three-year bond rate target has also been reduced to 0.1 per cent. Meanwhile, former RBA board member John Edwards has hailed the "courageous" and "historic" decision to pursue quantitative easing. The central bank will purchase about $5bn worth of federal and state government bonds each week over the next six months.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

SA expected to soften borders with Victoria to allow quarantine

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Original article by Emily Cosenza
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 4-Nov-20

South Australian Premier Steven Marshall says the state is likely to scrap its hard border with Victoria within two weeks. However, Victorians will still be required to self-quarantine for 14 days after entering the state. Marshall says the travel restrictions will initially be relaxed for people living in border communities, who will no longer need to tested for COVID-19 every week if they want to travel to SA. Victoria has now recorded four consecutive days with no coronavirus cases, and there are just 38 active cases across the state. Meanwhile, the number of active cases among returned travellers in hotel quarantine in SA has increased to 13 after two more tested positive for COVID-19.

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SOUTH AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET

Trump predicts solid win as Biden grows more confident

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Original article by Matthew Knott
The Age – Page: Online : 4-Nov-20

Democrats candidate Joe Biden has an average lead of 2.3 percentage points over US President Donald Trump in the key ‘battleground’ states. However, Trump believes that he has a "solid chance" of winning the presidential election, while he has ruled out "playing games" by declaring an early victory if the results are not clear on election night. Biden in turn has told his supporters that he senses that the Democrats are set for a "big win". More than 100 million Americans voted by mail or at an early voting site prior to election day; these votes are expected to favour the Democrats, but the Republican Party is tipped to perform better among people who vote on election day.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES)

Concerned agency silenced in quarantine inquiry

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Original article by Peta Credlin
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 3-Nov-20

The spread of COVID-19 from Victoria’s hotel quarantine program has led to the deaths of over 800 people, with the infection outbreak being blamed on the use of poorly trained private security guards rather than police or Australian Defence Force personnel. The botched program is the subject of an inquiry, and the Victorian Government Purchasing Board has complained to Victorian Treasury that it was not approached to provide evidence to the inquiry nor asked to provide input into Treasury’s statement. The Board contends that statement overlooked what it claims was the failure of the Department of Jobs, Precincts & Regions to follow correct procurement accreditation procedures when awarding private security contracts.

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VICTORIAN GOVERNMENT PURCHASING BOARD, VICTORIA. DEPT OF JOBS, PRECINCTS AND REGIONS, VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE

Aussie migrants give Melbourne the cold shoulder

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, David Tanner
The Australian – Page: Online : 3-Nov-20

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that 25,000 people left Melbourne during the June quarter, while there was a 6,595 decline in the number of people coming to Melbourne when compared to the June 2019 quarter. Greater Melbourne’s net loss of 8,000 people was its biggest on record, while Greater Sydney’s net loss of 6,000 was its smallest quarterly net loss since 2016. Queensland recorded a net migration gain of 6,800 in the June quarter, while more people moved from Victoria to New South Wales than from NSW to Victoria for the first time since the June 2007 quarter.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS