O75 Public Administration

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 87.0 in the week the RBA cut interest rates to 3.85%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 87.0 in the week to 25 May; however, Consumer Confidence is now 6.8 points above the same week a year ago (80.2), and 0.5pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence fell in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but rose slightly in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 13% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Steph Hunt (Melbourne) and Aaron Violi (Casey) are the only two Liberals to achieve a primary vote swing of +4%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-25

The Liberal Party suffered a crushing defeat at the Federal Election held earlier this month, and the recriminations continue under new leader Sussan Ley. However, there were some bright spots for the party with 20 Liberal/LNP candidates achieving a positive primary vote swing, led by Liberal candidate for Melbourne, Steph Hunt, who achieved a primary vote swing of +4.6% from 2022, and Liberal MP from Casey (Victoria), Aaron Violi, with a primary vote swing of +4.4%. Other notable performances included Simmone Cottom with a primary vote swing of +3.9% in the Victorian seat of Hawke, Benson Saulo with a swing of +3.5% in the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara, Tim Beddoe with a swing of +3.3% in the western Melbourne seat of Maribyrnong and re-elected Liberal MP Tim Wilson reclaiming his seat on Melbourne’s bayside with a primary vote swing of +3.1%. Of the 20 Liberal/LNP candidates to achieve a positive primary vote swing in their electorate, 15 were in Victoria, three were in New South Wales and two were in Queensland.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

PM urged to act over US Darwin port offer

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 5 : 28-May-25

Landbridge Group’s long-term lease on the Port of Darwin is under renewed scrutiny, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese under growing pressure to act on his election pledge on the issue. Shadow home affairs minister James Patersons says Albanese should use the federal goverment’s constitutional powers to force Landbridge to relinquish its lease if it does not do so willingly on commercial terms. US-based private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management has proposed buying the port lease; Paterson says Cerberus would be an acceptable buyer under Australia’s foreign investment rules.

CORPORATES
PORT OF DARWIN, LANDBRIDGE GROUP COMPANY LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, CERBERUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP

Gas exporters on notice to lock in more supplies for Australians

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Original article by Nick Toscano
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 28-May-25

Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King addressed the Australian Energy Producers conference in Brisbane on Tuesday. Amid growing fears of a looming gas shortage on the east coast, King said that Australians are tired of seeing the nation’s vast gas resources exported while paying high prices themselves. King added that while some Australian LNG producers are "doing the right thing" by ensuring that there is sufficient domestic supply, a lot of work still needs to be done on this issue. She added that the federal government plans to undertake a review of laws and regulations governing the LNG sector, to ensure that they are working as intended.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY PRODUCERS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropped to 4.5% in mid-May – down from 4.8% for the month of April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 4.5% for the week of 12-18 May, down 0.3% points from the month of April, following two straight weekly declines in early May. However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for April shows the measure at 4.8% for the month – a second consecutive monthly increase of 0.1% points from the nearly four-year low in February of 4.6%. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of May 2024, and averaged 4.8%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,129 Australians aged 14+ in April 2025.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Victorian Labor enters debt-and-tax spiral

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Original article by Lily McCaffrey, Damon Johnston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 21-May-25

S&P Global analyst Rebecca Hrvatin has responded to the Victorian government’s 2025 budget by emphasising the need for fiscal discipline, particularly in the lead-up to the state election in November 2026. The budget papers show that Victoria’s net debt is forecast to rise from about $155bn at present to $194bn in 2028-29, while the state’s annual interest bill will top $10.5bn by that date. The state’s wages bill is in turn expected to blow out to $42bn in 2028-29, despite plans to shed about 1,200 full-time equivalent public sector jobs. Meanwhile, tax revenue is expected to rise to about $48bn in 2028-29, compared with $36.8bn in 2023-24; this is despite the absence of any new taxes in the budget.

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S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Chalmers concedes energy rebates must end

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Original article by Rhiannon Down
The Australian – Page: 7 : 21-May-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has refused to rule out extending the federal government’s energy rebate for a third time. However, he acknowledges that the government is aware that the $6.8bn rebate must end at some stage, which is why it has been extended for just six months rather than a year. Independent economist Chris Richardson says the rebate is "bad policy" and the money should have been used to reduce the structural deficit and increase unemployment benefits. Professor Bob Breunig from the Australian National University agrees that the rebate should not be extended beyond 2025, arguing that such subsidies tend to be inflationary.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.5pts to 88.8 in the week before the RBA met to consider interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.5pts to 88.8 in the week to 18 May; Consumer Confidence is now 6.8 points above the same week a year ago (82.0), and 2.4pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows mixed results with Consumer Confidence rising in Queensland and South Australia, but down slightly in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 41% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 14% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while 24% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 37% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

King to offer first details of critical minerals stockpile

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Original article by Tom Rabe, Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 21-May-25

The federal government has emphasised that mining companies will not be required to contribute to its proposed critical minerals stockpile. Resources Minister Madeleine King is set to disclose some details about the stockpile at a mining summit today; she will argue that Australia has an obligation to take a lead on critical minerals and rare earths globally, given that China – which dominates the sector – is seeking to impose export controls on some of these minerals. King adds that the stockpile will only hold ‘small’ and ‘temporary’ volumes of critical minerals; she has also downplayed concerns that the policy will distort prices, arguing that China’s market dominance is already doing this.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES

Liberals back Nationals split as necessary reset after election lashing

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Original article by Olivia Caisley
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 21-May-25

The National Party has formally abandoned its long-standing alliance with the Liberal Party, advising that it will not renew the Coalition agreement for the upcoming term of parliament. Nationals leader David Littleproud the negotiations between the two parties broke down over a number of policy issues, including nuclear energy, expanded divestiture powers for supermarkets and a $20 billion regional future fund. Former prime minister John Howard has urged the two parties to resolve their differences and reunite; however, a number of senior Liberals believe that the split was necessary, and some contend that it should have happened long ago. The Liberals will remain the formal Opposition in Parliament, with 28 lower house seats; the National will have 15 seats and Labor will have about 94.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY