O75 Public Administration

Government debt could hit $1trn by September

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 8-May-25

Data from the Australian Office of Financial Management shows that the federal government’s gross debt is currently about $929bn. Micaela Fuchila, the chief economist at investment bank Jarden, has forecast that the nation’s gross debt will reach $1trn in either September or October of this year. The Treasury in turn expects the government’s net debt – which excludes the value of financial assets such as the Future Fund – to reach $556bn by June. S&P Global recently warned that Australia’s coveted AAA credit rating may be at risk if federal election spending promises are funded via debt rather than revenue or cost savings.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY. OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, JARDEN AND COMPANY, S&P GLOBAL INCORPORATED

NZ: In April, for a third straight month, both the National-led Government and Parliamentary opposition were under 50% support

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-25

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for April 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 49% (up 2% points) and the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 47% (down 0.5% points). This is the fourth straight month the two main blocks representing both sides of politics have fallen short of a majority of support; it is also the seventh straight month no single party has managed to garner a third of the electorate’s support. There were changes in the composition of support for the National-led Government, with National down 1.5% points to 31%; however, support for ACT increased 1.5% points to 9% and support for NZ First increased 2% points to 9%, now at their highest level of support since the Election in October 2023. For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 1% point to 28.5% while support for the Greens was virtually unchanged at 14%. Support for the Maori Party dropped 1% point to 4.5%. A further 4% (down 1.5%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 829 electors from 24 March to 20 April.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

Liberals revolt over policy failures

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Original article by Sarah Ison, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-May-25

Sources within the Liberal Party have indicated that many of its policies were either not released or delayed for so long that they had no impact on the federal election. They include policies in key areas such as defence, taxation, education, health and the environment. Meanwhile, Sussan Ley is now widely regarded as the frontrunner to replace Peter Dutton as Opposition leader; advocates for Ley contend that she could boost support among female voters who have become disillusioned with the Liberal Party.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 9.3pts to 96.7 in April before weekend’s Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-25

In April 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was down 9.3pts to 96.7, in the weeks leading up to last weekend’s Federal Election. There was a similar trend three years ago when Business Confidence plunged by 12.8pts in the month leading up to the last Federal Election. Business Confidence is now 13.5pts below the long-term average of 110.2, although it is down a more modest 2.6pts from April 2024. Now 24.3% (down 6.6ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the lowest figure for this indicator since September 2020, during the pandemic), while 36.7% (down 1.2ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 36% (down 8.8ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2019), while 25.6% (up 8.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2024). The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,549 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 4.1pts to 87.5 in the week Australians voted in the Federal election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.1pts to 87.5 in the week to 4 May; it is important to note that the vast majority of interviewing for Consumer Confidence was completed before the result of the Federal Election was known on Saturday night. Consumer Confidence is now 7 points above the same week a year ago (80.5), and 1.3pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.2. Analysis by State shows increases around Australia, including in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but a slight decrease in Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (down 5ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since September 2022). Looking forward, 28% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Albanese to dole out an extra ministry to the Left after landslide win

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Original article by David Crary, James Massola
The Age – Page: Online : 7-May-25

Labor’s expanded caucus is set to meet on Friday to decide which MPs and senators will be in the new ministry, although Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will allocate portfolios next week. Labor’s left faction is set to gain an additional seat in the ministry after gaining about 12 seats in the federal election, while the Victorian Right faction will also push for increased representation in the ministry. The Left faction is set to outnumber the Right in Labor’s caucus, which is set to increase to at least 110, compared with 103 before the election.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

PM urged to adopt 2035 emissions reduction target of 70pc

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-May-25

The federal government will decide its 2035 emissions reduction target later this year, based on advice from the Climate Change Authority. However, the Labor Environment Action Network’s convener Felicity Wade says the group wants the 2035 target to be at least 70 per cent lower than 2005 emission levels. Wade adds that the environment must be a top priority for Labor’s second term in office, while LEAN wants the government’s ­nature positive laws to be legislated within 12 months. There are already doubts as to whether Labor’s 2030 emissions reduction target is achievable.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LABOR ENVIRONMENT ACTION NETWORK

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased to 5.1% in late April – up from 4.7% for the month of March

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5.1% for the week of 21-27 April, up 0.4% points from the month of March, following two straight weekly increases in late April. However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for March shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – an increase of 0.1% points from the nearly four-year low in February of only 4.6%. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.3% since the start of 2024, and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,093 Australians aged 14+ in March 2025.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

The Role of Trust and Distrust in the 2025 Federal Election Webinar

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-25

Join Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine to learn why the 2025 Federal Election will be decided by distrust rather than trust. In this compelling webinar, Michele reveals why this will be ‘The Distrust Election’: who Australians distrust more – Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or Opposition Leader Peter Dutton; how cost-of-living pressures and economic uncertainty are intensifying the political battle; the surprising politicians Australians actually trust (and why): how distrust changes voter behaviour and reshapes election outcomes; and what unexpected decision or external shock could swing the election result. Discover the reshaping of Australia’s political landscape – and what it means for Election Day. Watch the webinar on YouTube.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.1pts to 83.4 to lowest for over six months in week before Federal election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 83.4 in the week to 27 April. Consumer Confidence is now 2.2 points above the same week a year ago (81.1), but 2.7pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.1. Analysis by State shows mixed results; the weekly decrease was driven by falls in Victoria and Queensland, while Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged in New South Wales and Western Australia, and increased slightly in South Australia. Now 15% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2023), while 47% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 26% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020, in the early days of the pandemic), while 30% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ