O75 Public Administration

GST warning in roundtable revamp

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Greg Brown, Sarah Elks
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 25-Jun-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had pitched the federal government’s plans to bring unions, business leaders and community groups together in August as a productivity roundtable. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to broaden the scope of the summit by describing it as an "economic reform roundtable". He has also reiterated that the goods and services tax will be on the agenda; Chalmers adds that changes to the GST will only be considered if they are revenue-neutral and in the national interest.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Blockade a wake-up call for fuel reserves

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 25-Jun-25

Defence and national security expert Jennifer Parker believes that Iran’s ally China will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to be closed to oil tankers. However, Parker says Iran’s threat to block the strait – which is used to ship about 25 per cent of global oil supplies – is a "timely reminder" that Australia needs to build a much larger onshore reserve of fuel. The International Energy Agency’s protocols require nations to hold at least 90 days of oil stocks in reserve; this includes both oil that is stored domestically and fuel that is in transit. The IEA estimates that Australia has just 56 days of onshore fuel reserves, including 31 days worth of petrol.

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.3pts to 86.7, driven by improving buying sentiment amid Mid-Winter Sales

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 86.7 in the week to 22 June, rebounding from last week’s fall to return to the level of two weeks ago despite the continued conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3 points above the same week a year ago (80.4), and it is just above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in Victoria and Queensland, unchanged in New South Wales and Western Australia, and unchanged in South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 11% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In May Australian unemployment dropped to 10.9% – however, this was due to people leaving the workforce rather than finding jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jun-25

In May 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell by 65,000 to 1,715,000 (down 0.3%, to 10.9% of the workforce). However, the fall in unemployment was not because people looking for work found jobs, but because they gave up and left the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.44 million Australians (9.1% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (down 36,000 from April). In total, 3.15 million Australians (20.0% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May. Meanwhile, Roy Morgan estimates that the overall workforce size (which adds together both the employed and unemployed) was just over 15.7 million in May, down 206,000 on a month ago and representing 68.3% of Australians aged 14+. This is the smallest estimated workforce so far this year, and the largest monthly workforce contraction since October 2021. Roy Morgan also estimates that just over 14 million people (14,025,000) were employed in May; this is down 141,000 from a month ago, and the lowest level of employment since November 2023.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Labor flags wider tax makeover

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Original article by John Kehoe. Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 18-Jun-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will use a National Press Club speech today to identify boosting productivity, budget sustainability and economic resilience as the federal government’s reform priorities for its second term in office. Chalmers will contend that while the federal budget is now stronger, it is not yet sustainable; he will also argue that the domestic economy is growing and resilient, but it is not productive enough or resilient enough. Meanwhile, he has given indications that tax reform may be on the agenda for the productivity roundtable in August, stating that Labor may be open to broader tax reforms than its proposed changes to the tax treatment of superannuation accounts with balances exceeding $3m.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY. NATIONAL PRESS CLUB (AUSTRALIA)

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.3pts to 85.4 as Israel and Iran conflict threatens to engulf Middle East

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jun-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts to 85.4 in the week to 15 June; however, Consumer Confidence is 5.1 points above the same week a year ago (80.3), and just below the 2025 weekly average of 86.2. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence down in the largest States of New South Wales and Victoria, up in Queensland and South Australia, and unchanged in Western Australia. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 27% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (rising off a five year low), while 34% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now just 11% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED. AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

NZ: In May, for an eighth straight month, both National and Labour are supported by fewer than a third of the electorate

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jun-25

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for May 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 50% (up 1% point) and the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 45% (down 2% points), with both failing to muster a majority of public support. This is the fifth straight month the two main blocks representing both sides of politics have fallen short of a majority of support. There were changes in the composition of support for the Government, with support for ACT up 3% points to 12% (the highest support for ACT so far this year) while support for NZ First dropped 2.5% points to 6.5%; support for National was little changed at 31.5%. For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was virtually unchanged at 29%, support for the Greens dropped 2.5% points to 11.5% and support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 4.5%. A further 5% (up 1%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 799 electors from 28 April to 25 May. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 17pts to 80.5 in May.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

Renumeration Tribunal sets 2.4 per cent pay rise for federal MPs

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Original article by Jessica Wang
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 12-Jun-25

Federal politicians, department secretaries and senior public servants will receive a pay rise of 2.4 per cent from 1 July. This is in line with the inflation rate, but below the pay rises that were awarded by the Remuneration Tribunal in the previous two years. The salary package of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will rise from about $607,471 per year to $622,050; Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ remuneration will in turn rise by $10,514 a year, to $448,625. The annual pay of other cabinet ministers will rise to $412,735.

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AUSTRALIA. REMUNERATION TRIBUNAL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increases modestly after the Albanese Government’s decisive election win

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jun-25

In May 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased by 2.9pts to 99.6 in the weeks after last month’s Federal Election, although it is still marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence had dropped by 2.9 points in the weeks after the previous Federal Election in late May 2022. Business Confidence is now 10.5pts below the long-term average of 110.1, although it is up 2.6pts from May 2024. Now 22.5% (down 1.8ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the lowest figure for this indicator since August 2020, during the pandemic), while 36% (down 0.7ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 32.3% (down 3.7ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since August 2015), while 23.5% (down 2.1ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for May are based on 1,218 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Budget faces $9b hit from NDIS delays

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 12-Jun-25

The federal government’s budget papers in March showed that it is targeting $19bn worth of savings related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme over the next four years. However, some $8.8bn of these savings are now in doubt, which will jeopardise the government’s goal of restricting growth in the NDIS to just eight per cent a year from mid-2026. Its annual growth rose to 20 per cent in 2022, prompting former NDIS minister Bill Shorten to commission a review of the scheme; amongst other things, it recommended the introduction of ‘foundational supports’.

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