O75 Public Administration

Long road to life without Covid

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 17-Apr-20

International modelling shows that Australia has a coronavirus detection rate of 84 per cent, compared with 12 per cent for the US and just 3.6 per cent for the UK. However, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has indicated that lockdown restrictions are likely to remain in place for at least another four weeks. He has outlined a three-stage process for easing the restrictions; this will be based on increased testing for the virus, improved tracing of virus cases and action to contain coronavirus ‘hotspots’. Morrison argues that easing the restrictions too soon risks further infections, with resulting health and economic consequences.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

PM flags business growth plan

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 17-Apr-20

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has told a meeting of the national cabinet that pro-growth economic policy measures will be required in the post-coronavirus environment. He has stressed that business rather than government will lead the economic recovery, so there will be a need for policies that encourage employers to invest in their business and to hire people. Morrison has also raised the prospect that some of the policies that the Coalition took to the May 2019 election might need to be shelved. Business Council of Australia CEO Jennifer Westacott has expressed support for Morrison’s pro-business focus.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

ABS March unemployment figures are misleading – because second half of March ignored!

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-20

The ABS yesterday, finally, released their March unemployment estimates – actually the first half of March. The ABS March employment estimates show employment increasing by 6,000 and unemployment virtually unchanged at 5.2%, up only 0.1% from February – both very misleading and should never have been released in their current form. On April 8, 2020 Roy Morgan released accurate real employment and unemployment estimates for the whole of March – pre and post COVID-19 lock-down. Roy Morgan’s unemployment estimate pre the COVID-19 lock-down was 7.3%, essentially unchanged on February. However, Roy Morgan’s late March unemployment estimates showed the Government’s COVID-19 lockdown response resulted in an extra 1.4 million Australians becoming unemployed in a matter of two weeks, leading to unemployment of 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increasing 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%) in the second half of March. This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – depression numbers! (Following is a link to full details on Roy Morgan’s March employment and under-employment estimates: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8363-roy-morgan-unemployment-and-under-employment-march-2020-202004080900)

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Hope as recoveries outpace new cases

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Original article by Jill Margo, Edmund Tadros, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 16-Apr-20

The global death toll from the coronavirus has risen to 134,007; more than 2,073,000 people worldwide have been diagnosed with the respiratory illness. There are 6,447 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Australia, and the nation’s death toll has risen to 63. However, just 47 new cases were reported nationwide on 15 April, while the number of people who have recovered from the virus is estimated to have increased by 90. Experts warn that the rate of infection could rise again, particularly if lockdown measures are relaxed too soon.

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IMF jumped the gun with dire forecasts: Frydenberg

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Apr-20

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has downplayed the International Monetary Fund’s latest economic growth and unemployment forecasts for Australia. He argues that they were made prior to pandemic stimulus measures such as the $130bn JobKeeper scheme. New figures show that more than 838,000 businesses have applied for the wage subsidy to date. The IMF has forecast that the domestic economy will contract by 6.7 per cent in 2020, although Alan Oster of National Australia Bank expects GDP growth to fall by just 4.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Ex-Fair Work senior official calls for bargaining overhaul

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Hannah Wootton
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 16-Apr-20

A former senior deputy president of the Fair Work Commission warns that strict application of the ‘better off overall test’ is contributing to the decline of enterprise agreements. Jonathan Hamberger, who stepped down from the FWC in late 2019, has praised the flexibility of employers and unions in negotiating changes to industry awards during the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that such flexibility is needed in the enterprise agreement system. Amongst other things, he says the better off overall test should be replaced with the ‘no disadvantage test’.

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AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence continues recovery – up 9% to 78.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Jan-20

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was up 9% to 78.2 on the Easter weekend, and now up 20% since a record low of 65.3 two weeks ago. Driving the increase are more Australians saying they expect to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year – up 7% to 32%, while 27% (down 1%) say they expect to be ‘worse off’. This is the only index question in positive territory, however compared with the previous week there were improvements across the other four Consumer Confidence questions. The two weeks of increases follow the Federal Government’s announcement of a $130 billion wage subsidy in late March and shows how important it is to measure sentiment in the Australian economy on a real-time weekly basis rather than over the longer monthly time period.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Covid and the Great Exodus

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 16-Apr-20

Net overseas migration accounted for 63 per cent of Australia’s population growth in the year to September. The nation’s population increased by 371,000 during this period; meanwhile, the federal government’s April 2019 Budget had forecast net overseas migration of 271,000 in 2020. However, data from Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge shows that the number of temporary visa holders fell by 260,000 to 2.17 million in the March quarter. Economist Warren Hogan warns that the decline in net ­migration will have an impact on consumer spending and the housing market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY

Virgin ups ante with threat of administration

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Original article by Lucas Baird, Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 15-Apr-20

Shares in Virgin Australia Holdings were placed in a trading halt on 14 April as the embattled carrier continues to seek financial assistance. The federal government is resisting Virgin’s push for taxpayers’ support, prompting Virgin to warn that it may appoint voluntary administrators within a month if it does not receive a bailout. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has emphasised that any government assistance for the aviation sector must be industry-wide. Labor leader Anthony Albanese contends that the government could take an equity stake in Virgin and sell it in the future.

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VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

‘We’re winning but we’ll never get rid of it’

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale, David Tanner
The Australian – Page: 5 : 14-Apr-20

The global death toll from the coronavirus has risen to 125,896; more than 1,990,000 people worldwide have been diagnosed with the respiratory illness. There are 6,400 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Australia, and the nation’s death toll has risen to 62. However, the coronavirus curve continues to flatten, with only 36 new cases reported nationwide on 15 April. Microbiologist Peter Collignon warns that the virus is unlikely to be completed eradicated in Australia, and that some lockdown restrictions may need to remain in place until at least the end of winter. Meanwhile, the death toll in the US has risen to 25,830 after an additional 2,190 deaths were reported in the last day.

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AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY