O75 Public Administration

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence bounces from historical low to 71.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Apr-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 10.1% to 71.9 in the week to 5 April; this was the biggest gain since the survey shifted to a weekly basis in 2008. Current economic conditions rose by 24.6%, although this subcomponent is still 50% below its level of six weeks ago. Current financial conditions gained 8.8%, while future financial conditions rose 11.4%. The Time to buy a major household item subcomponent gained 17.5%, following a drop of 23.8% previously. The four-week moving average for inflation expectation was stable at 4.1%, but the weekly reading dipped to 4.1% from 4.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia has flattened the curve – for now

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Original article by Edmund Tadros, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 6-Apr-20

The global death toll from the coronavirus has risen to 74,395; more than 1,339,000 people worldwide have now been diagnosed with the respiratory illness, including 5,795 in Australia. The nation’s death toll from the virus has risen to 41, including a 12th passenger from the ill-fated ‘Ruby Princess’ cruise ship. However, Australia’s rate of infection has slowed to 1.7 per cent, with just 104 new confirmed cases on 6 April. Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has reiterated the need to keep complying with social distancing rules in order to continue to curb the virus’s spread.

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Economy the great unknown in viral era

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Original article by Nick Cater
The Australian – Page: 10 : 7-Apr-20

New Zealand and Australia have adopted vastly different strategies in their efforts to combat COVID-19. Many have urged Scott Morrison to adopt NZ Prime Minister Jacinta Ardern’s comprehensive lockdown, but he has preferred to adopt social distancing rules that aim to minimise restrictions on economic activity. Australians were asked by Roy Morgan recently if they believed things would get worse before they get better; 85 per cent said yes. It is starting to appear they are wrong so far as COVID-19 goes, but perhaps not so the economy. Modelling suggests adopting the NZ strategy would have a much more negative impact on the economy that those measures adopted by Morrison, while it is forecast that unemployment could rise by 1.2 million if the federal government’s current measures remain in place for six months or longer.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Business Confidence hits a record low of 95.1 in March – declines accelerated throughout the month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Apr-20

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 9.5pts (-9.1%) to a new record low of 95.1 in March 2020, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey; this is more than 4pts below the previous bottom of 99.8 the decade-old index hit in July 2011. Business Confidence is now 11.6pts lower than it was year ago, and 19.8pts below the long-term average of 114.9. Analysing Business Confidence by dividing March into fortnights reveals a tale of two distinct halves. In the first two weeks of the month the index continued its recovery from the summer bushfires and averaged 107.5, an increase of 2.9pts from February. However, this recovery was halted in mid-March, with the index averaging only 71.4 over the last half of the month. It plunged day-by-day through to the end of March as the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic hit Australia and prompted increasing government restrictions to stop the spread of the virus. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for March are based on 885 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Covid casuals: money for jam

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Original article by Rosie Lewis, Geoff Chambers, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 7-Apr-20

The federal government has reached a compromise with the ACTU regarding the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme. Industrial Relations Minister Christian Porter negotiated a deal with ACTU ­secretary Sally McManus to address the union movement’s concerns about draft legislation to amend the Fair Work Act. Labor still favours implementing the scheme via the Fair Work Commission, but it intends to vote for the legislation when parliament reconvenes for a one-off sitting on 7 April. Meanwhile, new data suggests that some casual workers may be paid significantly more under the JobKeeper scheme than they earned prior to the pandemic.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, SKILLS, SMALL AND FAMILY BUSINESS, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Unions push for reasonable test in JobKeeper compromise deal for casuals

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Original article by Samantha Maiden
The New Daily – Page: Online : 6-Apr-20

Attorney-General Christian Porter has indicated that he is open to a compromise regarding casual workers’ access to the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme. All eligible employees will be paid $1,500 per fortnight, regardless of their current income; this may include some part-time casuals who earned less than $750 a week prior to the pandemic. ACTU secretary Sally McManus has urged the federal government to introduce a ‘reasonable test’ for casual employees who had expected to work over the next year but had been with their current employer for less than 12 months.

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AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT, ACTU

Economy to contract almost 4pc in 2020

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 23 : 6-Apr-20

The median forecast of economists is that the Australian economy will contract by 3.9 per cent in calendar 2020, and by 1.1 per cent in the year to 30 June. The quarterly survey of economics also shows that the economy is expected to contract by 1.5 per cent in 2020-21, while economic growth is not forecast to rebound from the coronavirus until the end of 2021. Meanwhile, economists generally expect the unemployment rate to peak at 8.5 per cent by the end of June 2020, compared with 5.1 per cent at present. The inflation rate in turn is forecast to be 1.4 per cent in June, falling to 1.25 per cent by the end of the year.

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Social restrictions slowing the spread

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Apr-20

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Australia rose by just 139 on 5 April, or 2.5 per cent. The nation’s infection rate was rising by an average of 25 per cent each day just two weeks ago. Chief Health Officer Brendan Murphy says the latest figures show that efforts to contain the virus are continuing to ‘flatten the curve’, and he is optimistic that measures such as lockdowns and social distancing will allow the nation to avoid the large-scale crisis that has hit some countries. However, the nation’s death toll from the virus has risen to 35; three of the four new fatalities in New South Wales had been on the ‘Ruby Princess’ cruise ship.

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AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER

How Australia’s coronavirus stimulus stacks up against global competition

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Original article by Matt Johnson
The New Daily – Page: Online : 3-Apr-20

The International Monetary Fund has called on countries to enact ‘wartime measures’ to rescue economies crippled by the impact of COVID-19. Measures announced by the Australian government include a $130 billion wage subsidy plan and a $20 billion loan scheme. The UK has announced it will subsidise employees’ wages up to a value of Stg2,500 ($5,086) a month, while the US has introduced a $2.2 trillion rescue package that includes a controversial $500 billion corporate bailout fund to help big business.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Government unveils new jobs site as economists revise down unemployment forecasts

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Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 3-Apr-20

More than 26,000 vacancies have been listed on the federal government’s new Jobs Hub website, and this is expected to top 50,000 in the next week. The site features employment opportunities across a range of industries. The launch of Jobs Hub has coincided with the release of official data showing that the number of job vacancies nationwide fell by 0.1 per cent in February and 2.2 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, Westpac now expects the unemployment rate to peak at nine per cent – rather than its previous forecast of 17 per cent – due to the government’s wage subsidy scheme.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC