O75 Public Administration

Rate cut chances tumble on inflation rise

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 30-Jan-20

Official data shows that headline inflation rose 0.7 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 0.5 per cent in the three months to September. The annual inflation rate rose to 1.8 per cent. Factors such as higher prices for fruit, meat and petrol contributed to the increase in the inflation rate. Ben Udy of Capital Economics says the CPI data should ensure that the Reserve Bank of Australia leaves the cash rate on hold in February. The central bank expects core inflation to rise to 1.8 per cent by the end of 2020.

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CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

PM stays course on coal, climate

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Jan-20

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has used a National Press Club speech to reiterate the federal government’s commitment to its 2030 target for reducing carbon emissions by 26-28 per cent. He noted that the Paris Agreement allows developing countries to continue increasing their carbon emissions, and stressed the need to address the ‘climate gap’ between nations. Morrison also defended Australia’s coal export trade, arguing that if it is shut down coal buyers will merely seek alternative sources of coal that may be of lower quality.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NATIONAL PRESS CLUB (AUSTRALIA)

From virus city to island refuge

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Original article by Richard Ferguson, Robyn Ironside
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 30-Jan-20

The federal government has requested permission from its Chinese counterpart to evacuate Australian citizens from Wuhan. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has stressed that only one chartered flight from Australia may be permitted to land in Wuhan, while he has defended the government over criticism of its slow response to repatriating citizens who are in the quarantined city. The government intends to place evacuees in quarantine on Christmas Island for up to 14 days. Seven cases of the coronavirus has now been confirmed in Australia; more than 6,000 people worldwide have contracted the virus, which has claimed 132 lives to date.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Price expectations much higher for Young Parents than Young Couples with no children

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-20

Australians as a whole expect prices to increase by 4% annually over the next two years, according to Roy Morgan surveys conducted in December. This is a slight increase of 0.1% on expectations in November, but down 0.2% on a year ago. Comparing price expectations by Household Life-Cycle shows that Young Parents expect prices to increase by 4.5% annually over the next two years – higher expectations than that of any other household type. In contrast, Young Couples who have no children expect price increases of only 3.3% per year. Most Household Life-Cycle segments cluster in the middle between these two, around the national average of 4%. Mid-Life Families (4.1%) and Young Singles (4.1%) are slightly higher, Older Households (4%) are right on the national average and Mid-Life Households (3.9%) are slightly below it.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australians amongst least confident in the world about 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-20

A special Roy Morgan survey conducted in Australia in conjunction with the Gallup International Association survey in 47 countries world-wide finds that Australia is one of the least confident countries in the world about 2020. Only 12% of Australians (down 32% points on a year ago) expect 2020 will be a ‘better year’ than 2019, which is equal 43rd with South Korea of the 47 countries surveyed. Australia is more positive about 2020 than only three countries – Italy (11%), Jordan (7%) and Lebanon (5%). Australia’s traditional allies the US and the UK fare significantly better with their views of 2020. A plurality of 43% of Americans says 2020 will be better than 2019, while a third of Britons (33%) expect 2020 will be better. There are 10 countries for which a majority of respondents expect 2020 will be a ‘better’ year than 2019, led by Nigeria (73%), Peru and Albania (both 70%). Conversely, a 30-year high of 40% of Australians (up 26% points from a year ago) expect 2020 will be a ‘worse year’ than 2019.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, GALLUP INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 108.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.3% to 108.0 in the week ended 26 January. Current finances fell 0.5%, but this was balanced by a similar increase in future finances. Current economic conditions fell 1.8%, while future economic conditions gained 3.5%. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex was down 2.4%, after a gain of 4.7% previously. The four-week moving average of ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.9%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

2020 survey: no lift in wage growth, no lift in economic growth and no progress on unemployment in year of low expectations

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Original article by Peter Martin
The Conversation – Page: Online : 29-Jan-20

A panel of 24 leading economists expects Australia’s economic growth to remain at or below two per cent in 2020. The average forecast is for growth of 1.9 per cent. The consensus of the economists is that the unemployment rate will remain above five per cent, while growth in wages will remain at around 2.2 per cent. The panel also expects the iron ore price to continue to fall, which will in turn see growth in Australians’ living standards slow to 2.4%. Meanwhile, there is general agreement among the economists that official interest rates will be cut just once in 2020 and the the Reserve Bank will not have to pursue quantitative easing.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Aussies trapped as US flees virus

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Original article by Richard Ferguson, Amanda Hodge
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Jan-20

The official death toll from the coronavirus has risen to 106, while more than 4,500 people have now been diagnosed with the illness worldwide. The virus has spread to at least 15 countries, including the US, France and Japan, with five cases having been confirmed in Australia to date. Meanwhile, more than 400 Australian citizens remain in the Chinese city of Wuhan where the outbreak began, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison has indicated that the federal government will seek to evacuate them. The Chinese government has not yet agreed to allow Australia to send a chartered plane to Wuhan, although the US has been cleared to do so.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Why prescribed burning has never been so important to Australia

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Original article by Neil Burrows, Rick Sneeuwjagt
The Age – Page: Online : 29-Jan-20

The issue of hazard reduction burning in national parks and forests has come under scrutiny in the wake of the bushfires crisis. The purpose of prescribed burning is to assist in safely suppressing bushfires rather than stopping them. Reducing the fuel load in some areas means that they can take a lower priority in the event of a fire, enabling firefighters to be deployed to the fire’s perimeter or to defend properties. Indirect suppression strategies such as back burning are easier if the fuel load has previously been reduced.

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Coronavirus: Australian government asks travellers to reconsider their need to travel to China

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Original article by Danuta Kozaki, Kevin Nguyen
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 29-Jan-20

The federal government’s Smarttraveller website has updated its travel advice for China in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Australians have been advised to reconsider whether they need to travel to China at all, while Foreign Minister Marise Payne says people should not travel to Hubei province – ‘ground zero’ for the virus – under any circumstances. Meanwhile, some schools in New South Wales have urged parents to keep their children at home for the start of the school year if they have travelled to China in recent weeks.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE