O75 Public Administration

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increases driven by more confidence about the year ahead

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-25

In June 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased by 2.8pts to 102.4 in the month after the Federal Election; it is now marginally above the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 7.7pts below the long-term average of 110.1, although it is up 0.9pts from June 2024. Now 26.4% (up 3.9ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago, while 40.6% (up 4.6ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 39.6% (up 7.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 21.7% (down 1.8ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for June are based on 1,215 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Treasurer’s calling but RBA puts him on hold

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Jul-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold is not the outcome that millions of Australians were hoping for and financial market had expect. Most economists had expected a rate cut on Tuesday, and financial markets had priced in a near-100 per cent chance. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock contends that traders were too focused on the monthly inflation data for June, which showed a headline rate of 2.1 per cent; she says the monthly figures are volatile and the RBA board is not yet convinced that inflation is that low in a "sustainable way". The RBA will instead wait for inflation data for the June quarter to be released at the end of this month. Six members of the monetary policy board voted to leave the cash rate at 3.85 per cent, while three favoured a rate cut.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Trump threatens to escalate trade war amid confusion over new tariff rates

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Original article by Callum Jones
The Guardian – Page: Online : 9-Jul-25

US President Donald Trump has ruled out another extension to the reciprocal tariffs deadline, which has already been pushed back to 1 August. Trump has also advised that more countries will be informed of their new tariffs in coming days; Japan and South Korea are among the 14 countries that have already received letters advising that they will face tariffs of up to 40 per cent. Meanwhile, Trump has announced punitive tariffs on a range of imports; this includes a tariff of 50 per cent on copper and up to 200 per cent on foreign-made drugs, although he indicated that pharmaceutical companies will be given at least a years’ notice.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Roundtable revolt on super

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-Jul-25

The federal government’s economic reform roundtable is set to be inundated with submissions from business leaders, the union movement and special interest groups. Many of these submissions are likely to propose alternatives to Labor’s superannuation tax reforms, particularly the controversial plan to tax the unrealised capital gains of super funds. Critics of this provision of the reforms contend that at the very least the $3m threshold should be indexed to inflation. Financial services industry veteran Geoff Wilson has previously warned that taxing unrealised gains will have a negative impact on productivity.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

PM’s $16m team: it’s time to earn it

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-Jul-25

The Australian Public Service had 193,503 ongoing and non-ongoing employees at the end of 2024, but the federal government’s March 2025 budget papers had forecast that this will rise to about 213,000 in 2025-26. Meanwhile, analysis shows that the combined remuneration of the 17 highest-ranking federal public servants will be around $16.3m in 2025-26. They received a salary increase on 1 July, following a recent ruling of the Remuneration Tribunal. Steven Kennedy, who heads the Department of Prime Minister & Cabinet, is the nation’s highest-paid bureaucrat, with total remuneration of $1,035,690.

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AUSTRALIA. REMUNERATION TRIBUNAL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

China, critical minerals dominate Quad agenda

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 2-Jul-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese still hopes to have his first face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue leaders’ meeting later this year. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s executive director Justin Bassi say the Quad meeting must address issues such as China’s "coercive conduct" in the Indo-Pacific region and the nation’s dominance of global critical minerals supply. These issues are also expected to be discussed at this week’s Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in Washington DC.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.5pts to 87.2 as buying sentiment improves for a second straight week

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Jul-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.5pts to 87.2 in the week to 29 June, and is now at its highest since mid-May. Consumer Confidence is now 5.9 points above the same week a year ago (81.3), and just above the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in New South Wales and South Australia, down in Queensland and Western Australia, and unchanged in Victoria. Now 17% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 11% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 28% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 31% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2022).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Keating says 12pc super is 25 years late but worth wait

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 1-Jul-25

The compulsory superannuation guarantee will rise by 0.5 per cent to 12 per cent today, following progressive increases in recent years. Former prime minister Paul Keating – considered to be one of the ‘architects’ of Australia’s super system – has welcomed the milestone but says it should have been reached in 2000. The Coalition government of the era froze the guarantee at nine per cent, a policy which remained in place until 2013. Keating contends that the delay has cost some workers up to $300,000 in retirement savings. He opposes the federal government’s proposed changes to the tax treatment of super, particularly the taxation of unrealised capital gains.

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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence increases to 98.8 – highest so far this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Jul-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose 5.9 points to 98.8 in June. The future conditions index, made up of forward-looking questions, rose 8 points to 104.8, recovering last month’s fall; the current conditions index rose 3 points to 89.8. Net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 3 points to -13%; only 26% (up 2% points) of respondents said they are ‘better off financially’ compared to a year ago, while 39% (down 1% point) say they are ‘worse off financially’. Meanwhile, a net 20% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year (up 8 points on a month ago), and a net 23% (down 2% points) expect to be worse off. A net 7% (down 3% points) of New Zealanders now think it is a ‘bad time to buy’ a major household item, whil two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations lifted from 4.6% to 4.9%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Gas crisis: Bowen calls on reserves

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Original article by Greg Brown, Colin Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 1-Jul-25

The federal government will undertake a review of the east coast gas market, amid new fears that a shortage could potentially occur by the end of 2025. Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has indicated that the government will require new gas projects to supply some of their output to the domestic market, although the policy will not affect the LNG export contracts of existing projects. The government will also consider the option of an east coast reservation scheme, which the Opposition had proposed during its ill-fated election campaign. Bowen has conceded that gas will be crucial to the energy transition, although he remains upbeat about the nation’s troubled green hydrogen industry.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER