O75 Public Administration

Housing crisis puts even safest seats at risk

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Nila Sweeney, Tom Rabe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 23-Apr-25

Analysis of data from Cotality suggests that the housing affordability crisis could potentially undermine support for the Coalition and Labor in traditionally safe seats at the election on 3 May. The analysis shows that a number of such seats have recorded the biggest decline in housing affordability since the previous federal election in 2022. They include the Labor seats of Watson, Blaxland and Kingsford Smith, and Coalition-held seats such as Banks and Moncrieff. Both major parties have announced new initiatives aimed at helping people to buy their own home.

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COTALITY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Dutton’s march to a war footing

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Original article by Ben Packham, Greg Sheridan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 23-Apr-25

Opposition leader Peter Dutton will announce details of the Coalition’s defence policy in Perth today. Amongst other things, the Coalition will propose to increase defence spending to 2.4 per cent of GDP by the fourth year of the budget’s forward estimates period, and to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030. The Coalition’s ultimate aim will be to lift defence expenditure to three per cent of GDP over the next decade, in line with the Trump administration’s push for America’s allies to meet this benchmark. The Coalition will also commission a new national security strategy, with Dutton noting that the world has changed significantly since the last such strategy was prepared a decade ago.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

‘Liar, liar’: Leaders’ bitter row over campaign truth

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 6 : 23-Apr-25

The Nine Network hosted the third leaders’ debate between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton on Tuesday. The latter expressed confidence that the Coalition can win the election on 3 May, despite trailing in public opinion polls. Dutton noted that polling is not always accurate, and conceded that the last federal government to serve just one term was in 1931; however, he added that there has not been a worse federal government since then. Meanwhile, the two leaders questioned each other’s integrity; Dutton accused Albanese of not being able to "lie straight in bed" during an exchange on the issue of Medicare bulk-billing, while Albanese accused Dutton of not being truthful about the Coalitions plans to cut government spending to pay for its proposed nuclear power stations.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Forecast for Australian growth cut

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 23-Apr-25

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded Australia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to just 1.6 per cent; its previous forecast issued in January was for GDP growth of 2.1 per cent in the current calendar year. Both the Treasury and the Reserve Bank had also previously forecast economist growth of at least two per cent, although this was before the global turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report also forecasts global growth of just 2.8 per cent this year.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Roy Morgan Poll: ALP increases election-winning two-party preferred lead to 55.5% cf. 44.5% L-NP as early voting has now started

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Apr-25

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 55.5% (up 1%) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 44.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Roy Morgan Government Confidence was unchanged at an 18-month high of 86 – although still below the neutral level of 100. Now 48% (down 0.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to 34% (down 0.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’. This was the first week in which all candidates were known and support for both major parties increased at the expense of Independents and Other Parties. Primary support for the ALP increased 2.5% to 34.5% and is just ahead of the Coalition on 34%, up 0.5%, while the Greens were unchanged at a six-month high of 14.5% and One Nation was unchanged at 6%. The declaration of candidates meant a drop in support for Independents, down 2.5% to 7.5% with Independent candidates not running in all 150 seats. There was also a decline in support for Other Parties, down 0.5% to 3.5%, with many minor parties running in only a handful of seats.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Dutton’s tax oath

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Original article by Paul McIntyre, Dennis Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-Apr-25

Opposition leader Peter Dutton has indicated that income tax reform will be one of his long-term goals if the Coalition wins the election on 3 May. He has identified tax indexation as an issue that he particularly wants to address, arguing that ‘bracket creep’ stifles productivity, ­entrepreneurialism and hard work. However, Dutton has emphasised that returning the budget to surplus would be the priority in the first term of a Coalition government, given that Labor has forecast deficits for the next decade. Dutton likens his approach to that of John Howard and Peter Costello in the 1990s, whereby they focused on budget repair during their first term in office before putting tax reform on their second-term agenda.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Gender-gap pay rulings a game-changer

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-Apr-25

The Fair Work Commission has recommended large pay rises for workers covered by industry awards in sectors that have predominatly female workers. The ACTU says the FWC’s recommendations will directly increase the wages of an estimated 175,000 workers, as well as 335,000 workers whose agreements ae underpinned by awards. Amongst other things, the FWC’s expert panel has recommended a pay rise of to 28.4 per cent for early childhood educators, up to 31.2 per cent for psychologists and up to 14.1 per cent for pharmacists. The proposed wage rises would be phased in over several years, and are in addition to any increase in the minimum wage from July.

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AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU

Director Sentiment rebounds from post-pandemic low

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-25

The latest director sentiment survey from the Australian Institute of Company Directors shows an improvement in both economic and business conditions for the first half of 2025. This AICD survey of 1,127 company directors was conducted by Roy Morgan between 19 February and 6 March. While the Director Sentiment Index (DSI) remains in negative territory for the sixth consecutive survey (-23.9), it has lifted nearly 10 points, the strongest improvement since 2021. Meanwhile, only 25% of directors now believe that a recession is likely within the next 12 months, compared with 46% in the second half of 2024. However, nine out of 10 directors believe that escalating trade tensions under the Trump presidency threaten the economic outlook for both Australia and the world. Global uncertainty is now the top economic challenge facing Australian businesses, surpassing productivity growth and cost of living. Concerns over global protectionism have also increased significantly.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF COMPANY DIRECTORS, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australia can play key role in global supply of rare earths

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 24 : 17-Apr-25

Federal Resources Minister Madeline King recently called for Australia to establish a strategic reserve of critical minerals. However, King did not name terbium and dysprosium, which are crucial for the defence sector and which will now be subject to export controls by China. King also did not mention that although Australia has terbium and dysprosium deposits, the nation does not currently produce these minerals. Meanwhile, Haoma Mining’s rare earth ore bodies at Bamboo Creek in the Pilbara carry some of the highest grades of terbium and dysprosium in the world. Gold will first be extracted via the Elazac process, which greatly assists the economics. The high content of terbium and dysprosium in the remaining material can potentially be treated several ways. The Bamboo Creek ore also contains lutetium and yttrium, which are important in lutetium-based prostate cancer treatments.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES, HAOMA MINING NL

Trump’s tariff probe boosts local miners

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Original article by Andrew Tillett, Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 17-Apr-25

US President Donald Trump has signed a new executive order regarding critical minerals. He has directed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to investigate whether new tariffs should be imposed on all critical minerals imports on national security grounds. Amongst other things, Lutnick will examine the impact of the "predatory economic, pricing and market manipulation" strategies of countries that process critical minerals. Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable has welcomed the investigation, saying it will present Australia with an opportunity to strengthen its position as a trusted and reliable supplier of critical minerals to the US.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA