O75 Public Administration

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 86.7, but net buying sentiment improves to strongest since April 2022 as End of Financial Year sales begin

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jun-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 86.7 in the week to 8 June; Consumer Confidence is now 9.7 points above the same week a year ago (77.0), and in line with the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence increasing in New South Wales and Western Australia, but down slightly in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia – a reversal of last week’s results. Now 20% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 25% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since late March 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic), while 30% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 12% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

AUKUS under threat as Trump launches review

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: Online : 12-Jun-25

The US Department of Defense has confirmed that it will undertake a review of the AUKUS alliance with Australia and the UK. The Pentagon says the review will aim to ensure that the alliance is in the best interests of the US and that it aligns with the ‘America First’ agenda of President Donald Trump. The review is expected to be led by defence official Elbridge Colby, who has been a notable critic of AUKUS in the past; amongst other things, he has previously stated that the alliance’s benefits and viability is "questionable". Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is likely to come under pressure to obtain a firm commitment to AUKUS from Trump if the two leaders meet on the sidelines of the upcoming G7 summit in Canada.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. DEPT OF DEFENSE, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Wong’s Israeli sanctions create legal minefield

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 12-Jun-25

The federal government is under growing scrutiny over its decision to back a joint statement imposing financial sanctions and travel bans on two Israeli cabinet ministers. Foreign Minister Penny Wong reiterated Labor’s support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in announcing the sanctions on National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The Department of Foreign Affairs & Trade has warned that Australian individuals or companies that have business interests in Israel should seek legal advice, because they could potentially be in breach of the sanctions and may incur large fines or even imprisonment.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE

China puts six-month limit on ease of rare-earth export licenses

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Original article by Lingling Wei, Brian Schwartz
The Australian – Page: Online : 12-Jun-25

Sources have indicated that the Chinese government has agreed to start approving rare-earth license applications for US companies immediately, as part of a proposed trade deal between the two nations. However, China is said to be planning to initially restrict rare earths export licences to just six months, which would give the nation leverage if renewed trade tensions emerge. These export licences are also said to primarily cover rare earths elements that are used in the manufacturing of electric vehicles, wind turbines, consumer electronics and military equipment. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has indicated that tariffs will stay at the levels that were agreed to during the recent negotiations in Geneva.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.6pts to 86.4 as Reserve Bank interest rate cut fails to increase confidence

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.6pts to 86.4 in the week to 1 June; however, Consumer Confidence is now 5.9 points above the same week a year ago (80.5), and in line with the 2025 weekly average of 86.5. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence dropping in New South Wales and Western Australia, but up slightly in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Now 18% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 26% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 14% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Victoria turns blind eye to credit downgrade risk

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Original article by Lily McCaffrey
The Australian – Page: 6 : 4-Jun-25

Victoria’s Treasurer Jaclyn Symes will hold meetings with global credit ratings agencies in New York on Friday. Symes has told parliament’s public accounts and estimates committee that there has been no indication from the ratings agencies that Victoria’s credit rating may be subject to an unfavourable review. The issue came under scrutiny earlier in 2025 when S&P Global warned that the government must demonstrate "fiscal discipline" if it hopes to retain the state’s AA/Stable credit rating, which had been downgraded from triple-A in 2020. The Treasury has advised that it has not undertaken any modelling on the impact of a further credit rating downgrade on the state’s budget position.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF TRANSPORT, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Climate change spend surges to $9bn a year

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 4-Jun-25

Analysis by the Institute for Public Affairs shows that the federal government’s spending on climate change and net zero policies has increased by 400 per cent since it took office in May 2022. Labor allocated more than $9bn to such initiatives in its pre-election budget in March, compared with just $1.7bn in the former Coalition government’s last budget in March 2022. This compares with the $600m that was spent on climate change and net zero programs a decade ago. The IPA’s chief economist Adam Creighton says that despite the big increase in spending on net zero, the government’s own figures show that Australia’s carbon emissions have fallen by just 2.8 per cent compared with 2005 levels.

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INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

PM leaves door ajar to super tax compromise

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Jun-25

The federal government will require the support of either the Coalition or the Greens to pass legislation in the Senate from 1 July. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has given indications that Labor may be willing to make changes to its superannuation tax reforms to secure the Coalition’s support for the legislation. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien recently stated that the Coalition would consider a deal with Labor if it agreed to abandon plans to tax the unrealised capital gains of super funds. Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO Andrew McKellar says the business community would welcome greater co-operation between the major political parties if it results in policy outcomes that are in the national interest.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoys third honeymoon as ALP strengthens two-party preferred lead in May: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-25

The latest Roy Morgan survey shows that support for the ALP has risen to 58.5% on a two-party preferred basis (up 3.2% since winning the federal election), well ahead of the Liberal-National Party Coalition on 41.5% (down 3.2%). The Albanese Government’s second election victory netted the party 94 seats in the House of Representatives, equalling the all-time record of the Howard Government in 1996. In addition, the two-party preferred result – currently at 55.3% for the ALP according to the AEC – is the largest since Malcolm Fraser won the 1975 election for the Coalition with a two-party preferred result of 55.7%. In the month of May primary support for the ALP increased to 37% (up 2.4% since the election), and is clearly ahead of the Coalition on 31% (down 0.8%). Support for the Greens dropped 0.7% from the election to 11.5% and support for One Nation was down 0.4% to 6%. In addition, support for Independents/Other Parties was at 14.5% (down 0.5%). Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 15.5 points to 97 during May. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 5,128 Australian electors from 5 May to 1 June.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Trump’s tariffs could spark fresh sell-off, says RBA

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 4-Jun-25

Sharemarkets have recovered most of the losses incurred in response to the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs announcement in early April. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s chief economist Sarah Hunter says ongoing uncertainty regarding the US tariffs regime could result in renewed financial market volatility. Speaking ahead of the release of GDP data for the March quarter, Hunter warned that further changes to US tariffs or the economic outlook could prompt another equities sell-off; this in turn could adversely affect consumer spending and deter businesses from hiring staff or proceeding with capital investment plans.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT