O75 Public Administration

PM’s test for independents

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Joe Kelly, Dennis Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 9 : 14-May-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says it is "reasonable and fair" to ask independent candidates who they would support if neither the Coalition or Labor secure a majority in the federal election. Former prime minister John Howard has noted there is no guarantee that an independent candidate who wins a seat will support the Liberal Party, while Labor leader Bill Shorten has claimed that Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson would "call the shots" in a minority ­Coalition government.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, ONE NATION PARTY

ACTU leader to channel Hawke in Fair Work wage pitch

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 14-May-19

Michele O’Neil will become the first ACTU president since Bob Hawke to personally present the union movement’s case for a rise in the minimum wage. O’Neill will appear before the Fair Work Commission’s wage review panel on 15 May; the ACTU is seeking a six per cent increase in the minimum wage, followed by a 5.5 per cent rise in 2020. Meanwhile, Labor has advised the FWC that it will withdraw its current submission to the wage review if it wins the federal election, and will make a new one that will call for a "real wage increase to award rates".

CORPORATES
ACTU, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

Over 600,000 jobs created since last election, but is it enough for the L-NP?

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

Roy Morgan real Australian unemployment is 8.9% in April, down 2% in a month, and following the same pattern seen during the last Federal Election when unemployment declined by 1.1% during the campaign before rebounding. There were 1.2 million Australians unemployed in April and a further 1.18 million Australians under-employed – a total of 2.38 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work (17.7% of the workforce). Full-time employment was 8.03 million, up nearly 350,000 since the last election, while part-time employment was 4.22 million (up 260,000). Although over 600,000 jobs have been created since the last Federal Election in July 2016, total unemployment and under-employment remains stuck well above 2 million people.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine analyses the boost in support for the ALP a week before the Federal Election

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

The ALP campaign launch last week with a message of unity has helped provide a ‘boost’ in ALP support with under a week to go until the Federal Election. The ALP 52% now holds an election winning lead over the L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis. In addition Bill Shorten’s good week came as many Australians felt sympathy for Shorten after he described the struggles his mother had endured to undertake her dream of completing a law degree. A front-page headline in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph which sought to attack Shorten for drawing on his mother’s story only served to highlight his mother’s achievements to a wider audience. Shorten also had two successful leadership debates with Prime Minister Scott Morrison including a quick-witted put-down of Morrison as a ‘classic space invader’ during the second leader’s debate and a solid performance in the third, and final, leader’s debate last Wednesday. In calculating the two-party preferred support the Roy Morgan Poll uses respondent’s stated preferences. While Greens supporters strongly preferences the ALP, other parties stated preferences are dividing fairly evenly between the ALP and L-NP and as many as one-in-four electors still haven’t made their mind up. However, most Australians believe the ALP will win the election with many polls for months showing the ALP well ahead of the Government. But will all the polls be proven wrong again like with the US Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016? Most people believed Clinton would win and this belief was reflected by most of the American polls at the time.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ALP regains initiative with a week to go: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

The last face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll before the election shows the ALP regaining the initiative and pulling away from the L-NP with an election winning two-party preferred lead: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%. The increase for the ALP came through an increased primary vote at the expense of the Greens, according to the final face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll of the Federal Election, and indicates the chances of Australia electing a hung Parliament this weekend have diminished. Primary Voting Intention: Primary support for the L-NP was unchanged at 38.5% this week but support for the ALP increased by 1.5% to 35.5%. The ALP gained support from the Greens, down 1% to 10%. Support for One Nation was unchanged at 4% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) was unchanged at 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down marginally by 0.5% to 8.5%. In a worrying sign for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 6pts to 93 this week with 44.5% of electors (up 3.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ and only 37.5% (down 2.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

PM’s late pitch for young voters

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 13-May-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has used the Coalition’s official election campaign launch to announce a First Home Loan Deposit Scheme. The $500m scheme will allow Australians to buy their first home with a deposit of just five per cent rather than 20 per cent, with the government to underwrite the balance via its National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation. Labor responded by announcing that it will match the policy while pressing ahead with its negative gearing reforms. Morrison also committed to providing $4bn worth of federal funding for the East West road link in Melbourne.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. NATIONAL HOUSING FINANCE AND INVESTMENT CORPORATION

Newstart review will go beyond adequacy of dole

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 13-May-19

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says he does not intend to pre-empt the findings of the review of Newstart that Labor will conduct if it wins the federal election, and that the review will not just be about increasing the dole. A study commissioned by the Australian Council of Social Service in 2018 concluded that increasing the dole by $75 a week would cost taxpayers $3.3 billion, but that it would deliver $4 billion in economic benefits. ACOSS CEO Cassandra Goldie contends that people on Newstart are the "real victims of growing inequality in Australia".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN COUNCIL OF SOCIAL SERVICE, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

ABCC targets building union leadership

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 10-May-19

The Australian Building & Construction Commission will allege that the construction industry union breached workplace laws in trying to force Botany Cranes to sign an enterprise agreement. The ABCC has launched legal action against four Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining & Energy Union officials, including New South Wales secretary Darren Greenfield. Amongst other things, they are alleged to have threatened to damage the company’s equipment and stage a secondary boycott if it did not sign the agreement.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, BOTANY CRANES, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BOOM LOGISTICS LIMITED – ASX BOL, WGG CRANE GROUP

Bellwether sectors shed thousands of workers

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 23 & 31 : 10-May-19

Analysis by JP Morgan shows that nearly 140,000 jobs were lost in Australia’s manufacturing, construction and retail sectors in the first three months of 2019. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that so-called bellwether sectors are the most closely linked to the economic cycle. He says rising job losses in these sectors will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. George Tharenou of UBS says GDP growth is a more reliable indicator of the health of the economy than monthly employment data.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

Greens rally to Garrett war cry

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 6 : 10-May-19

The Greens will seek to declare a ‘climate emergency’ when Parliament resumes after the federal election. Their call is in line with that of former environment minister Peter Garrett, who says that if Labor wins the election it should convene a climate emergency summit. Garrett also says a new federal department should be set up to "decarbonise the economy". Opposition finance spokesman Jim Chalmers says Garrett is very passionate about taking genuine action on climate change, while Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has announced a $3.5 billion Climate Solutions Package.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA