O75 Public Administration

Last weekend’s Roy Morgan face-to-face poll shows: ALP 52.5%, L-NP 47.5%. L-NP jump 3% on 2PP after ALP vote to loosen border protection laws

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Feb-19

An Australia-wide Roy Morgan face-to-face poll conducted over the weekend of 16-17 February shows that support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis is 52.5%, compared with 47.5% for the L-NP. There has been a 3% swing to the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis following the ALP’s decision to back the medivac legislation. The L-NP’s primary vote has risen by 2.5% to 37%, while the ALP’s primary vote has fallen 1.5% to 34.5%. Roy Morgan’s executive chairman Gary Morgan says the results of the Roy Morgan poll show that the issue of border protection is a major strength for the L-NP; however, a lot can happen between now and the Federal Election in May.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Police wanted to prosecute at least one over AWU leak

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 19-Feb-19

The Australian Federal Police have disclosed that there seemed to be enough evidence to justify charging at least one person for leaking details of raids on the offices of the Australian Workers’ Union in October 2017. However, the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions ruled against any prosecutions. The AFP’s Deputy Commissioner Leanne Close has also revealed that former industrial relations minister Michaelia Cash and former justice minister Michael Keenan declined to provide witness statements on two separate occasions, and had instead submitted written letters to the AFP.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN WORKERS’ UNION-FEDERATION OF INDUSTRIAL, MANUFACTURING AND ENGINEERING EMPLOYEES, AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE, AUSTRALIA. DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC PROSECUTIONS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. REGISTERED ORGANISATIONS COMMISSION, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Morrison’s Tampa moment

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Original article by Rosie Lewis, Joe Kelly, Primrose Riordan, Paige Taylor
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 18-Feb-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has highlighted the federal government’s border protection policies in a newspaper article which is targeted at migrant communities. In addition, Morrison has recorded a two-minute video clip aimed at people-smugglers, in which he stresses that the passage of the medivac legislation will not affect Australia’s tough stance on asylum-seekers. The video will be broadcast in 15 languages on YouTube. Meanwhile, Labor has criticised the government’s decision to re-open the detention centre on Christmas Island.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT

PM heads off revolt by Nationals

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Feb-19

The National Party is very unhappy over the federal government’s shelving of legislation that would allow the forced divestment of energy companies’ assets. It is understood that some Nationals MPs were prepared to cross the floor of the House of Representatives and vote against the government on small business legislation. The government has moved to placate the Nationals by agreeing to support amendments to the legislation that will make it easier for smaller businesses to sue larger companies. The government has also indicated that it will support a Labor/Greens motion calling for a royal commission into the treatment of the disabled.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL

Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.2% in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2019. This is unchanged on December and down 0.3% on January 2018. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range of between 4.2-4.5% since November 2016. Inflation Expectations remain significantly below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis of Inflation Expectations by voting intentions shows that L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party in January, unchanged at only 3.6%. L-NP supporters have had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters fell 0.1% to a record low of 3.9%. January Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,111 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Leak came from union watchdog

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Original article by Patrick Durkin, Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 15-Feb-19

Senator Michaelia Cash is due to give evidence in the Federal Court on 15 February in a case brought by the Australian Workers’ Union. She is expected to be asked to respond to allegations by her former chief-of-staff Ben Davies that he was tipped off about an Australian Federal Police raid on AWU offices by former Registered Organisations Commission media adviser Mark Lee. The AWU contends that a ROC investigation into donations made by it to GetUp and Labor leader Bill Shorten is "politically motivated" and legally invalid.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN WORKERS’ UNION-FEDERATION OF INDUSTRIAL, MANUFACTURING AND ENGINEERING EMPLOYEES, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. REGISTERED ORGANISATIONS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Business bashing poll on the cards

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-Feb-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has accused Labor of siding with large energy companies over its role in having the federal government withdraw legislation to force them to sell assets if they fail to reduce electricity prices. With the Greens having secured the consent of Labor and six crossbenchers to have the legislation amended so that the government could not subsidise new coal-fired power stations, the government withdrew it, knowing that it would have been defeated in the House of Representatives. The government will now take the legislation, which has been attacked by energy companies and big business, to the upcoming election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY COUNCIL

NAB the big loser from Hayne Royal Commission – most distrusted bank in Australia

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Feb-19

Roy Morgan has been measuring bank trust and distrust since 2017 and recently conducted a survey in January before the release of the Hayne report, and another in February during the week following the report being made public. The Roy Morgan Net Trust Score Survey in January revealed CBA as the bank brand with the lowest level of trust and the highest level of distrust. However, in the wake of the Hayne report, NAB skyrocketed into the unenviable position as Australia’s least trusted and most distrusted bank brand. In January 36.9% of Australians distrusted NAB, but in the immediate wake of the report’s release the number of Australians distrusting NAB soared to 53.7%. Simultaneously, NAB’s level of trust plunged from 18.5% to 11.5%, delivering it the banking sector’s worst Net Trust Score of -42.2%, with the other three major brands in the minus twenties. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says this is the highest level of distrust we have ever seen for a bank brand in Australia.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Small business faces $8bn holiday pay hit

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Original article by Dennis Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-Feb-19

Labor’s motion to disallow the Fair Work Amendment (Casual Loading Offset) Regulations is expected to be debated by the Senate on 2 April. The Coalition moved to clarify the status of casual workers via regulation in late 2018 in response to the WorkPac case, in which the Federal Court ruled that casual workers are entitled to annual leave in addition to a casual loading. Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox has urged parliament to reject the disallowance motion, warning that it would threaten the viability of many small businesses.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WORKPAC PTY LTD, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, ACTU, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA

Wage rises to arrest falling growth outlooks

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Original article by Natasha Gillezeau, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 14-Feb-19

BIS Oxford Economics recently downgraded its GDP growth forecast to 2.2 per cent, but the firm does not expect the Hayne royal commission to have much impact on the economy. Alexandra Heath, the Reserve Bank’s head of economics, says the labour market was more resilient in 2018 than the central bank had expected, and it is likely to remain strong in 2019. She says this should in turn lead to a gradual increase in wages. She adds that the downturn in the housing market is unlikely to have much impact on economic growth or consumer spending.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH