O75 Public Administration

PM pledges more jobs, no debt

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Jan-19

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will use a speech in Brisbane on 29 January to commit the Coalition to creating an additional 1.25 million jobs over five years if it wins the 2019 federal election. He will note that the Coalition has created more than 1.2 million jobs since it won the 2013 election. Morrison will also indicate that his government will aim to clear Australia’s net debt within a decade. It currently stands at $351.9bn, or 18.2 per cent of GDP. The mid-year Budget update had forecast that net debt will fall to 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2028-29.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations down 0.1% to 4.2% in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for December 2018. This is down 0.1% on a month ago and down 0.3% on December 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.2-4.5% for over two years. Inflation Expectations have dropped further below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations fell in December for supporters of all political parties. L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party, now at only 3.6%, down 0.1% in December. L-NP supporters have now had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters were down 0.2% to 4.0% in December and are now at their lowest since November 2016. December Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,104 Australians aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Small biz bosses in fear of Labor

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 15 & 18 : 25-Jan-19

The Executive Connection’s CEO Confidence Index fell 10 points to 112 in December, the first consecutive decline in two years. The Index is based on responses from around 110 small business owners, with nearly 60 per cent stating that a Labor government would be bad for their business. Labor has foreshadowed a series of tax increases that are tipped to raise $200 billion over a decade, although it has proposed a more generous investment allowance. Over 70 per cent of small business leaders surveyed expect that property prices will continue to fall.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY, MYOB GROUP LIMITED – ASX MYO, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

December jobs growth beats forecasts

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 25-Jan-19

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate eased from 5.1 per cent to five per cent in December, with a net gain of 21,600 jobs during the month. Some 24,600 new part-time jobs were created, although the number of full-time positions fell by 3,000. The general consensus of economists had been for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1 per cent and for 18,000 new jobs to have been created in December. Meanwhile, the labour market’s under-utilisation rate has fallen by 0.2 per cent to 13.3 per cent.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BIXWOOD PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Budget risks in pensioner pork

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 25-Jan-19

Speculation that the federal government may give pensioners and families on low incomes a one-off cash payment prior to the election has prompted suggestions of ‘pork barrelling’. Some observers have likened it to the strategy of former prime minister John Howard ahead of the 2007 election, which he lost. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics says a low jobless rate and a strong economy means such largesse is not necessary, while Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says the government is now in election mode.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Dividend credit refunds distort economic system

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 19 & 26 : 24-Jan-19

Professor Kevin Davis from the University of Melbourne has expressed support for Labor’s plan to abolish cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits. He says that dividend imputation was intended to prevent the double taxation of corporate profits, and providing franking credit refunds for investors who do not pay tax has resulted in a "significant economic distortion". Meanwhile, the University of Sydney’s Andrew Ainsworth says retail investors may be engaging in short-term trading to receive franking credit refunds.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ALP locks in shipping fleet

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Original article by Primrose Riordan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Jan-19

The Maritime Union of Australia’s national secretary Paddy Crumlin says Labor is likely to pursue coastal shipping reforms if it wins the 2019 federal election. He expects Labor to mandate that cargo ships operating between the nation’s ports must be Australian-flagged, with local crews who are subject to Australian conditions of employment. Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable says that such restrictions would lead to higher costs for businesses and consumers.

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MARITIME UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

No change to hourly pay gap in 10 years

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 24-Jan-19

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released a report which concludes that the average hourly pay of women is still 11 per cent lower than their male peers. The report shows that the gender pay gap is widest in the health sector, at 25 per cent, despite the fact that women account for nearly 80 per cent of workers in the sector. In contrast, sectors such as manufacturing, hospitality and the public service are among those with the narrowest gender pay gap.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS

PM’s cash splash for oldies

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 9 : 24-Jan-19

Sources within the federal government have indicated that it may offer pre-election sweeteners to age pensioners and families in the form of one-off cash payments. The potential measure is said to be aimed at ensuring that people who will not directly benefit from the government’s income tax cuts package are not disadvantaged. The first stage of the tax package took effect at the start of 2018-19, but Labor has committed to scrapping the second and third stages it wins the 2019 election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence softens to 115.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.9% to 115.7 in the week ended 20 January, giving back much of the previous week’s gain. The overall index is still above its starting point for 2019, although it is almost 5% lower than its average for January 2018. Households’ views towards current and future financial conditions fell by 0.3% and 2.4% respectively; both indices are around the levels seen this time last year and above long-run averages. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions gained 3.4%, while future economic conditions fell 0.7%. These indices are 6-8% below the levels that prevailed in January 2018. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell 3.2%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ