O75 Public Administration

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition regains narrow lead after Reserve Bank boost proves short-lived: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Mar-25

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament, with the Coalition on 50.5% (up 1.5%) narrowly ahead of the ALP on 49.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. The Coalition, or the ALP, would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. This latest weekly poll has not completely reversed the ‘Reserve Bank boost’ but has definitely shown the ‘boost’ to Labor has been significantly softened. The Coalition stretched their primary vote lead, with L-NP support up 3.5% to 40% while ALP support dropped 3% to 28.5%; the Greens were unchanged at 13.5%, One Nation down 1% to 4%, Other Parties unchanged at 3.5% and Independents up 0.5% to 10.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations fell to 4.2% in late February – well down from 5.0% for the month of January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Feb-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 4.2% for the week of 17-23 February 2025; this is down 0.8% points from the month of January, and the lowest since August 2021. However, a look at monthly Inflation Expectations for January 2025 shows the measure at 5.0% for the month – an increase of 0.2% points from December, and just above the average for last year of 4.9%. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.3% since the start of 2024 and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 6,086 Australians aged 14+ in January 2025.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Sydney nurse Sarah Abu Lebdeh charged over kill Israelis video

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Original article by Stephen Rice
The Australian – Page: Online : 26-Feb-25

NSW detectives from Strike Force Pearl have arrested former Bankstown Hospital nurse Sarah Abu Lebdeh several weeks after she and a male colleague threatened to kill Israeli patients. The 26-year-old has been charged with three commonwealth offences, including threatening violence to a group, the use of a carriage service to threaten to kill, and use of a carriage service to menace, harass or offend. Police Commissioner Karen Webb says the charges have been laid following a lot of hard work, as well as legal advice received from the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions on Tuesday. Ahmad Rashad Nadir has yet to be charged over the antisemitic rant that was recorded by Israeli social media influencer Max Veifer.

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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.7pts to 89.8 after the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates for the first time since 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Feb-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.7pts to 89.8 in the week to 23 February, after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1%. Consumer Confidence is now 6.6 points above the same week a year ago (83.2), and 2.7 points above the 2025 weekly average of 87.1. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in all States, with the largest increase in Western Australia and increases of at least 3 points in the other States. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (down 6ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Looking forward, 37% (up 5ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2022), while 27% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 26% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022). Meanwhile, 24% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since before the Black Friday sales period), while 44% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

National nightmare of teals on a Green pitch

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Original article by Paul Garvey, Perry Williams, Colin Packham, Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Feb-25

Woodside Energy CEO Meg O’Neill says it would be bad for households, business and the environment if the Greens or the teals hold the balance of power after the federal election. Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods has expressed similar concerns, warning that a minority government could result in "exorbitant power" being given to a small collection of MPs who are focused solely on their own narrow agenda rather than the good of the nation. He contends that electors should vote for either Labor or the Coalition, as the consequences of giving the Greens or teals greater influence would include higher unemployment and severe energy shortages.

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WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED – ASX WDS, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Public service’s dirt job for Chalmers

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Feb-25

The federal government is continuing to attract scrutiny over claims that it had asked the Treasury to undertake costings on the Coalition’s proposal to offer tax breaks of up to $20,000 for small businesses. Treasury is not permitted to provide the government of the day with costings on the opposition’s policies. However, a series of emails between senior Treasury officials and the office of Treasurer Jim Chalmers shows that the Treasury was aware that it was modelling Coalition policy. Chalmers has publicly stated that he had asked Treasury to cost the policy; shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has accused him of using the Treasury as his personal "dirt unit".

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Ukraine agrees minerals deal after Washington drops toughest demands

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Original article by Christopher Miller, Alec Russell, Gideon Rachman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 26-Feb-25

Ukrainian officials have advised that the war-torn nation’s government will sign a deal with the US to jointly develop its mineral and energy resources after the Trump administration agreed to abandon its most onerous conditions. The US had initially sought a right to some $US500 billion ($788 billion) in potential revenue from exploiting Ukraine’s mineral and energy resources. The final version of the agreement will establish a fund into which Ukraine will contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the future monetisation of state-owned mineral and energy resources, as well as and associated logistics; The fund would invest in projects in Ukraine. However, the agreement does not mention the US security guarantees that Ukraine had sought in return for backing the deal.

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Cash splash to increase tax burden

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 25-Feb-25

Analysis shows that the federal government has made $123.6bn worth of discretionary spending decisions in the three budgets it has handed down since taking office in May 2022. The government has also announced some $20bn worth of election promises since the start of 2025, headlined by the $8.5bn expenditure on Medicare. Independent economist Chris Richardson says the cost of Labor’s spending decisions since taking office will ultimately be borne by taxpayers via ‘bracket creep’. He adds that it will also delay any prospect of further tax cuts by 5-6 years.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Roy Morgan Poll: ALP takes lead on two-party preferred after Reserve Bank cuts interest rates: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-25

The latest Roy Morgan survey shows that if a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament; the ALP is on 51% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, just ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 49% (down 2.5%). The ALP or the Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government. The ALP gained significant ground on primary support this week, up 3.5% to 31.5%, while the Coalition was down 3% to 36.5%. Support for the Greens increased 1% to 13.5%. Support for One Nation dropped 0.5% to 5%, support for Other Parties dropped 1% to 3.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 10%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Albanese confident US would come to Australia’s defence in event of attack

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Original article by Kate Lyons
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 25-Feb-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese discussed issues such as Australia’s alliance with the US, the cost-of-living crisis and social cohesion in a special edition of the ABC’s Q&A program on Monday night. Amongst other things, Albanese expressed confidence that Australia could rely on the US to help defend the nation if it were to come under attack; however, he also emphasised the need for Australia to invest in its own defence. Albanese described anti-semitism as "abhorrent and completely unacceptable", in response to criticism from an audience member regarding his perceived lack of action against people who have been targeting Jewish Australians.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET