O75 Public Administration

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.8pts to 86.7 in early February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Feb-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 86.7 in the week to 9 February, with rising concerns about the Australian economy driving the decline. Consumer Confidence is now 4.1 points above the same week a year ago (82.6), and just 0.2 points below the 2025 weekly average of 86.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows decreases in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, while the index increased sharply in Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since July 2024), while 48% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia accused of breaking its word on exports as Trump presses go on tariffs

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Original article by David Crary, Michael Koziol, Olivia Ireland
The Age – Page: Online : 12-Feb-25

President Donald Trump signed an executive order to impose a tariff of 25 per cent on all steel and aluminium imports to the US on Tuesday, shortly after discussing the issue with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Trump said there will be "no exceptions", although he had earlier told Albanese that an exemption will be considered due to factors such as America’s trade surplus with Australia. The executive order contended that Australia’s exports of primary aluminium to the US have surged in recent years, despite a verbal commitment to limit these exports. The tariffs will take effect from 12 March, giving the government just one month to negotiate an exemption in the lead-up to the federal election.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Kerr found not guilty of racially aggravated harassment

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Original article by
The New Daily – Page: Online : 12-Feb-25

A British jury has taken just over four hours to find soccer player Sam Kerr not guity on a charge of racially harassing a police officer. The captain of Australia’s national women’s team did not address the media outside the Kingston Crown Court, but subsequently issued a statement in which she apologised for her behaviour. Kerr acknowledged that she had expressed herself poorly on a "traumatic evening", adding that she had always maintained that she did not intend to insult or harm anyone. Kerr was charged after calling a male police constable "stupid and white".

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New probe into CFMEU violence

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 5-Feb-25

Current and former CFMEU officials and employees in Queensland will be foced to co-operate with an inquiry into the ‘culture of violence’ in the state’s construction industry. The CFMEU’s administrator Mark Irving says his inquiry will look into violence, threats of violence and menacing conduct across the state’s construction sector; he has emphasised that employers who have engaged in violence and menacing conduct will also come under scrutiny. Iriving has also warned that action will be taken against employers who victimise CFMEU members or delegates who agree to co-operate with the inquiry.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION

Support for NZ’s National-led Government down in January although support for National increases

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jan-25

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for January 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 50% (down 1.5% points), still clearly ahead of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 46.5% (up 1.5% points). There were changes in the composition of support for the National-led Government with National up 1.5% points to 32.5%; support for ACT dropped 4% points to 9% and support for NZ First increased 1% point to 8.5%, its highest level of support since the 2023 New Zealand Election. For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 2.5% points to 28.5% but support for the Greens dropped 2% points to 11.5%. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens since the 2023 Election. Support for the Maori Party increased 1% point to 6.5%. A further 3.5% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. The survey results for January would lead to 62 seats (down six seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 58 seats (up three seats) being won by the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition. This New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 885 electors from 2 to 26 January. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 6.5pts to 89 in January.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

100 per cent sure Bowen knows best

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Original article by Glen Norris, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Feb-25

Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Resources Minister Madeleine King have defended the federal government’s ambitious renewable energy target, amid growing opposition within the business community. Bowen and King have stated that the government takes its advice on energy policy from experts. Infrastructure NSW chairman Graham Bradley is amongst the business leaders who contend that the target of generating 82 per cent of Australia’s electicity via renewables by 2030 is unrealistic and must be revised.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES, INFRASTRUCTURE NEW SOUTH WALES

Tariff fight heats up as China strikes back

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Original article by Andrew Tillett, Jessica Sier, Matthew Cranston, Michael Read, Alex Gluyas, Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 5-Feb-25

The Chinese government will impose a tariff of 15 per cent on US coal and LNG imports from 10 February. Crude oil, farm equipment and some vehicles will in turn be subject to a tariff of 10 per cent. Beijing announced the move shortly after President Donald Trump’s new tariff regime on all goods imported from China took effect on Tuesday. Economists have warned that the tariffs dispute between the US and China will impact on the Australian economy, particularly if it escalates into a broader trade war. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has imposed export controls on critical minerals such as tungsten, tellurium and molybdenum, citing the need to "safeguard national security interests".

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Senator rejects Chalmers’ super tax offer

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 5-Feb-25

The federal government’s legislation to double the tax rate for superannuation funds with balances exceeding $3m requires the support of the Greens and at least three Senate crossbenchers. Lydia Thorpe and Fatima Payman are expected to support the bill, while Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock firmly oppose it. The support of Tasmanian independent Tammy Tyrell will therefore be crucial; however, she has rejected a deal to back the bill in retun for a commitment to proceed with a proposed ban on debit and credit card surcharges. Tyrell and a number of other crossbenchers are particularly concerned about the proposal to tax the unrealised gains of super funds. One Nation opposes the entire bill.

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AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

S&P loses patience, warns of state downgrades

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Original article by Michael Read, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-Feb-25

A report from S&P Global Ratings has concluded that the expenditure of Australia’s state and territory governments was $212bn higher between 2020 and 2023 than had been forecast in their 2019 budgets. This significantly offset the $146bn in revenue over the same four-year period. S&P forecasts that the combined debt of the states and territories will top $780bn by 2027, and the firm has warned they may face credit ratings downgrades unless action is taken to rein in spending.

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S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases 2.5pts to 88.5 after the long weekend – its highest since May 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Feb-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.5pts to 88.5 in the week to 2 February. Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (83.8), and 1.5 points above the 2025 weekly average of 87.0. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia while the index was virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 46% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since July 2024), while 27% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 27% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ