O75 Public Administration

Conservative commodity price forecasts offer revenue windfall

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that the Treasury is continuing to adopt a conservative approach to commodity price forecasts. The budget’s revenue forecasts are based on expectations that the iron ore price will fall to $US60 per tonne at port by the end of March 2026; the price of the steel input is currently trading at around $US100 per tonne. UBS recently forecast that the iron ore price will remain within a range of $US90 to $US100/tonne for the next five years. The Treasury’s forecasts for other key commodities such as coal and LNG are also significantly below current prices.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Tariff war impact ‘modest’: Treasury

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 2 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that Australia is now expected to record economic growth of just 1.5 per cent in 2025, compared with forecasts of two per cent growth in the 2024 budget and 1.75 per cent growth in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has conceded that the Trump administration’s tariffs policy will have a slight impact on Australia’s economic growth. The Treasury’s modelling suggests that the combined direct and indirect impact of the tariffs on the Australian economy by 2030 is likely to be modest.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$17b tax cut sparks poll fight

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 26-Mar-25

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has accused the federal election of an election bribe after it used the 2025 budget to announce a tax cut. The cut will see the 16 per cent tax rate, which applies to workers earning between $18,201 and $45,000, reduced to 15 per cent from 1 July 2026, with the rate then being cut to 14 per cent from 1 July 2027; all up, the cuts will save workers in that earning bracket $536 a year and will be worth $17.1 billion over five years. Taylor said the Opposition would not support the proposed tax cuts, while the budget forecasts a deficit of $27.6 billion for this financial year, increasing to $42 billion in 2025-26.

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Liberal backbenchers urge Coalition not to raid foreign aid budget to pay for rumoured $15bn defence boost

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Original article by Henry Belot
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 25-Mar-25

Recent media reports suggested that the Coalition may be open to increasing defence expenditure by at least $15bn a year if it wins the federal election. Some Liberal MPs have expressed concern that funding may be redirected from foreign aid to boost defence spending. A Liberal backbencher has warned that China may step in to fill the funding void if Australia were to reduce foreign aid to its neigbours in the Pacific region. The UK government recently opted to reduce foreign aid in order to increase defence spending, while the Trump administration has paused foreign aid.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Lib takes aim at teal with corruption probe call

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Original article by Rhiannon Down, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 7 : 25-Mar-25

Former Liberal MP Jason Falinski has called for a National Anti-Corruption Commission investigation into MP Zoe Daniel to be re-opened. Daniel had been accused of misusing commonwealth resources, but was cleared by the NACC earlier this year. It came after consultant Jim Middleton approached The Australian Financial Review about dropping Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court from its 2024 Power list, with Holmes a Court having funded Daniel’s 2022 election campaign. The NACC found that Middleton was working as a temporary part-time consultant for Daniel and was being paid by her private not-for-profit company rather than the Commonwealth at the time of his approach to the AFR, but Falinski contends he has evidence that indicates that Middleton was still a ‘senior adviser’ to Daniel at the time, with Falinski accusing her of misleading the NACC.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. NATIONAL ANTI-CORRUPTION COMMISSION

Top-heavy bureaucracy needs efficiency, not cuts

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 25-Mar-25

Public Service Minister Katy Gallagher believes that the federal public service is "roughly the right size now", at about 209,000 people. A former head of the Australian Public Service Commission, Andrew Podger, agrees that the number of public servants is "probably about right". However, he says there are inefficiencies in the public service that must be addressed; amongst other things, Podgers contends that the number of deputy secretaries is too high, while some bureaucrats are paid too much. The federal government has increased the public service head count by about 36,000 since taking office in May 2022.

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AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

Coalition denies plans to slash NDIS, but says cost is out of control

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Original article by Sarah Basford Canales
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 25-Mar-25

The National Disability Insurance Scheme’s growth rate is forecast to reach 12 per cent in 2024-25, before falling in the next two financial years. The national cabinet agreed to cap the scheme’s growth rate at eight per cent by mid-2026, but shadow NDIS minister Michael Sukkar says Labor is missing the targets it has set. Meanwhile, shadow public service minister Jane Hume contends that more can be done to reign in the scheme’s growth, arguing that its cost is out of control. NDIS Minister Amanda Rishworth says the Liberals cannot be trusted with the NDIS, and she has urged the party to reveal the cuts it plans to make if it wins the upcoming federal election.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF SOCIAL SERVICES, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Trump suggests auto, pharma tariffs might not come on April 2

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Original article by
The Australian – Page: Online : 25-Mar-25

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to announce reciprocal tariffs on the nation’s trading partners on 2 April. Trump has previously stated that sector-specific tariffs will take effect at about the same time. They were expected to include the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors; however, Trump has told a cabinet meeting that automotive tariffs will be announced "very shortly", while pharmaceutical tariffs will be revealed "at some point". Shares in Tesla rallied by nearly 12 per cent in response to indications that the tariff on automobiles may not take effect in early April. A White House official has confirmed that sector-specific tariffs "may or may not happen" on 2 April, although reciprocal tariffs will be imposed from this date. Meanwhile, Trump has revealed that a "secondary tariff" of 25 per cent on countries that buy oil from Venezuela will also take effect on 2 April; he has accused the country of sending "tens of thousands" of criminals to the US.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

ALP’s fiscal reckoning

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 25-Mar-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal budget is in much better shape than when Labor took office in May 2022. He adds that tonight’s budget will help to "finish the fight against inflation" and ease the cost-of-living crisis. The budget papers are expected to show that gross debt will total $940bn in 2024-25, which equates to about 36 per cent of GDP; this compares with the forecast of 35.2 per cent in the 2024 budget. Chalmers has emphasised Labor’s economic credentials, noting that it has delivered two surpluses in its first term and reduced the former Coalition government’s debt by $177bn. However, the budget will be in deficit for 2024-25, and Chalmers has conceded that it is unlikely to return to surplus for at least a decade.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Roy Morgan Poll: ALP holds election winning lead pre-Budget despite small swing to Coalition this week: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Mar-25

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 53% (down 1.5% from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 47% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Roy Morgan Government Confidence dropped 4.5 points to 80 with only 32.5% (down 2.5%) of Australians saying the country is ‘going in the right direction’ compared to 52.5% (up 2%) that say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’. Primary support for both major parties increased with the Coalition up 1.5% to 35.5% and the ALP up 1% to 33.5%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 12.5%, One Nation was down 1% to 4%, Other Parties were unchanged at 4.5% and Independents were down 0.5% to 10%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY