O75 Public Administration

Inflation fall fuels election fight

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Original article by Greg Brown, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 30-Jan-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says a ‘soft landing’ for the Australian economy is becoming "more and more likely" following the release of CPI data for the December quarter. The headline inflation rate fell 0.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent in the year to December; the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation eased to 3.2 per cent, below the central bank’s own expectations of 3.4 per cent. Three of Australia’s four major banks now expect an official interest cut in February. However, Warren Hogan from Judo Bank says the economic case for a rate cut is very weak; he notes amongst other things that core inflation remain above the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, while the cost-of-living crisis is still a major issue for many Australians.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JUDO BANK PTY LTD

Plibersek praised nature positive deal with Pocock and Greens as critical before PM scrapped it, documents reveal

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Original article by Dan Jervis-Bardy
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 30-Jan-25

A draft Senate program shows that a bill to establish a federal environmental protection agency is listed for debate next Thursday. Documents released via freedom of information laws confirm that Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek reached a written agreement with the Greens and independent senator David Pocock to amend the EPA legislation in late November. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese intervened to put the deal on hold less than 24 hours later. The proposed EPA is part of the federal government’s so-called ‘nature positive’ environmental reforms. Shadow environment minister Jonno Duniam has called for the proposed laws to be scrapped, and says Plibersek and Albanese must state their real intentions regarding the legislation.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

PM, the dodgy foreign student college, the degustation dinner – and Dan Andrews

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Original article by Damon Johnston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 30-Jan-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is under scrutiny following revelations that he attended a private dinner with members of the Indian-Australian business community at a Toorak mansion in November. They included the Barkly International College’s founder Rupinder Brar, who is seeking to overturn the Australian Skills Quality Authority’s decision to deregister the Melbourne-based private vocational education provider. Barkly is primarily focused on Indian students, and some of the guests at the dinner have indicated that visas are among the issues that were discussed. The guest listed included former Victorian premier Daniel Andrews.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, BARKLY INTERNATIONAL COLLEGE

ACCI warns of need for cap on spending

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 6 : 30-Jan-25

The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry will call for federal government spending to be capped at 25 per cent of GDP. The ACCI’s pre-election Agenda for Business policy blueprint will also advocate tax reform, the abolition of stamp duty and changing the definition of a small business to 25 employees or less, compared with the current threshold of 15 employees. CEO Andrew McKellar will use a speech on Thursday to argue that rising government spending is pushing up interest rates and adversely affecting productivity. Data released in late 2024 shows that government spending has risen to a record high of almost 28 per cent of GDP.

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AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 86.0 for Australia Day long weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 86.0 in the week to 26 January. Consumer Confidence is now 3.5 points above the same week a year ago (82.5), and 3.1 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in the two largest States of New South Wales and Victoria, but declines elsewhere in Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

‘Don’t panic over DeepSeek national security threat’

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Original article by Tom McIlroy, Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Jan-25

Former Australian Signals Directorate executive Simeon Gilding has downplayed concerns about the national security implications of China’s DeepSeek AI chatbot. Gilding contends that Chinese-made electric vehicles are a bigger security concern, given that they "suck up data" and send it back to China, where it could potentially be accessed by the Communist Party. He adds that it is too soon to consider banning DeepSeek in Australia, but says this could change if China’s security services start trying to imbed the technology into critical infrastructure and services.

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AUSTRALIAN SIGNALS DIRECTORATE

Van bomb targeted at synagogue

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Original article by Alexi Demetriadi
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Jan-25

The Joint Counter Terrorism Team has been deployed to investigate a suspected plot to target Jewish Australians, after NSW police discovered a caravan packed with explosives in the north-west Sydney suburb of Dural. A note identifying a Jewish target – which is said to be a Sydney synagogue – was found in the caravan, and Deputy Police Commissioner Dave Hudson estimates that the explosives were sufficient to create a blast zone radius of 40 metres. NSW police found the caravan 10 days ago, and argue that publicly disclosing the incident may have compromised their investigation; it was only revealed after being leaked to the media on Wednesday. Meanwhile, police have confirmed that the owner of the caravan is in custody, although he has not yet been charged with any offence.

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NEW SOUTH WALES POLICE FORCE, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased to 5.2% in mid-January – up from 4.8% for the month of December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5.2% for the week of 13-19 January 2025. This figure is above the average for last year of 4.9%, and up 0.4% points from the month of December. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for December 2024 shows the measure at 4.8% for the month – up 0.1% points from previous three months of September to November, but below the average for last year of 4.9%. Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.5% to 5.3% since the start of 2024 and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Labor axes aspirational 15 per cent super guarantee goal

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 4 : 29-Jan-25

The superannuation guarantee is scheduled to increase to 12 per cent in July, and Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones says the federal government has no plans to further increase it. However, Labor’s national platform in 2023 included setting a ‘pathway’ to increasing the super guarantee to 15 per cent once the initial target of 12 per cent has been reached. Jones says the policy platform is merely a set of principles rather than binding commitments, and Labor has no plans to further increase the super guarantee.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition maintains a narrow lead over ALP on the Australia Day long weekend: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-25

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with an unchanged two-party preferred vote from a week ago: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Although primary support for the Coalition dropped 1.5% to 40.5% and ALP support was up 1% to 29.5%, the movements for the minor parties cancelled this trend out. Support for the Greens dropped 1.5% to 11.5% while support for One Nation was up 2% to 6%. Other Parties were down 0.5% to 3.5% while support for Independents increased 0.5% to 9%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,567 Australian electors from January 20-26. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY