O75 Public Administration

Living standards stagnant until 2030: Deloitte

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jan-25

Deloitte Access Economics has forecast that state and federal government spending will reach a record 28 per cent of real GDP by the end of 2025. This compares with an average of 22 per cent in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The firm has warned that despite rising government expenditure, Australians’ living standards will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2030. Meanwhile, Deloitte partner Stephen Smith expects that CPI data to be released today will show that inflation is moving sustainably towards the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. However, he says factors such as a resilient labour market, elevated government spending and a falling Australian dollar are complicating the central bank’s decision on interest rates.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Deep end: big tech’s disruption

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 29-Jan-25

Science Minister Ed Husic says it is too early for the federal government to determine whether China’s DeepSeek AI platform is a potential national security risk. He says the government will take advice from national security agencies on the potential threat posed by the DeepSeek chatbot. US technology investor Marc Andreessen has described the latest version of DeepSeek as "AI’s Sputnik moment". However, Australian Strategic Policy Institute executive director Justin Bassi says the West was never reliant on the Soviet Union’s economy or its technology in the way it is with China; he adds that Western governments and companies acted after the Soviets launched the Sputnik artificial satellite in 1957, and similar action is required now.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE LIMITED

Top 10 Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime on the Rise, Climate Change Fades

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-25

Roy Morgan’s in-depth survey data covering the last few years highlights the key issues gaining importance for Australian electors as we approach the Federal Election. Cost-of-living increasingly dominates voter concerns with several related issues rising significantly since the Federal Election in mid-2022. The most important issue for electors is clearly ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’ (up 7% points to 57%). ‘Keeping interest rates down’ (up 8% points to 19%) and ‘Managing immigration and population growth’ (surging 8% points to 14%) have also increased. The sharp rise in immigration-related concerns is during a period in which Australia has had record high immigration and housing affordability issues have been at the forefront. At the same time, public anxiety about safety has escalated significantly with ‘Reducing crime and maintaining law and order’ jumping 10% points to 23% – the largest increase for any issue. In contrast, there are two issues that have fallen rapidly in importance: ‘Global warming and climate change’ is down 9% points to 23% and ‘Open and honest government’ is down 6% points to 19%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Dozens more charged over alleged bribes-for-registration scheme

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Original article by Lachlan Johnston
The Age – Page: Online : 24-Jan-25

Victoria’s Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission announced on Thursday that it had charged another 28 people as part of its investigation into allegations that employees at the Victorian Building Authority took bribes to register builders. IBAC stated that the 28 people charged are on top of six people that were charged in 2024 as part of Operation Perseus, with two of the six people charged then being VBA staff. The Victorian government in March 2024 removed the board of the VBA and made CEO Anna Cronin its sole commissioner, with the VBA’s operations having been under scrutiny since the 2022 suicide of building inspector Rob Karkut

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VICTORIA. INDEPENDENT BROAD-BASED ANTI-CORRUPTION COMMISSION, VICTORIAN BUILDING AUTHORITY

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine: Woolworths and Coles have gone from the Most Trusted to Most Distrusted in just over a year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-25

In a dramatic shift in consumer sentiment, Woolworths and Coles have recorded the highest distrust since Roy Morgan began tracking brand trust in late 2017. Woolworths now replaces Optus as the most distrusted brand in Australia, while Coles has followed closely, recording the second-highest level of distrust on record. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine commented that "Distrust has a far more potent impact on consumer behaviour than trust. While trust creates loyalty, distrust can drive customers into the welcoming arms of more trusted brands. The reputational fall of Woolworths and Coles is a powerful reminder of the fragility of trust in today’s environment. The pandemic placed the major supermarkets at the centre of Australian lives. But the goodwill they built during that period has been reversed by perceptions of too profit-motivated and unaffordable pricing".

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says understanding how electors feel about issues is critical as Federal Election approaches

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-25

Australians are shifting their focus on what are the ‘Issues of most importance’ ahead of this year’s Federal Election. The rising focus on cost-of-living pressures – spanning day-to-day expenses, interest rates, and housing affordability – reflects a growing urgency among voters to address financial strain, making it the defining issue of this election cycle. Concern about ‘reducing crime’ has surged around Australia and for supporters of all major parties, especially in Queensland, doubling from 16% to 32%, in Victoria, with a rise from 14% to 26% and in the NT, up 13% to 33%. In Victoria, new State Liberal Leader Brad Battin faces his first electoral test in early February in the Labor Government-held seat of Werribee. Battin is a former policeman, like Federal Coalition Leader Peter Dutton, and will be hoping his tough reputation will add momentum to the Liberal Party’s campaign to win the seat.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Coalition demands Labor hate speech crackdown explicitly outlaw threats and attacks on places of worship

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Original article by Krishani Dhanji
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 24-Jan-25

Federal parliament will resume in February, with Labor’s proposed crackdown on hate speech set to be one of the major points of discussion. Tabled in September, Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus contends that the legislation will act as a deterrent to anti-Semitism and other forms of hate speech and would protect places of worship, but the Coalition wants the legislation to explicitly outlaw threats and attacks against places of worship. For her part, independent MP Allegra Spender has called on the government to include a stronger vilification offence for hateful speech in the legislation. Her eastern Sydney electorate has a large Jewish community and LGBTQ+ community, who she said have both raised concerns about the proposed legislation not doing enough.

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AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT

Coalition will stay in Paris climate pact

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 24-Jan-25

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said on Thursday that he will not withdraw Australia from the Paris climate accord if he wins the upcoming election, despite pressure from the Conservative wing of the Coalition for such a move in the wake of Donald Trump taking the US out of it. The Coalition will set an emissions reduction target for 2035 if it does win the election, although its target is unlikely to be as ambitious as Labor, which is also yet to announce its 2035 target, given that 2035 would be before the proposed operation of the Coalition’s first nuclear reactor.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.3pts to 85.8 as buying intentions drop for a second straight week

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jan-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts to 85.8 in the week to 19 January. However, Consumer Confidence is now 1.4 points above the same week a year ago (84.4), and 2.9 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows decreases in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, whilst remaining unchanged in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 3ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down by 1pt in December after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged again

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jan-25

In December 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 105.9 (down 1pt from November 2024) after the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at a 13-year high of 4.35%. Business Confidence is now 5.3pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 14.8pts from December 2023. Roy Morgan Business Confidence has also now had a positive rating above 100 for three months in a row – for the first time since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 59.7% (up 1.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while only 37.6% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 40.5% (down 6.9ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 21.1% (down 1.3ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 1,533 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED