O75 Public Administration

Chalmers’ budget update locks in extra $25bn of unavoidable expenditure

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Original article by Jack Quail, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-Dec-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although global economic volatility is weighing on the federal budget, Labor has delivered two surpluses and lower debt since taking office in May 2022. Meanwhile, the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Wednesday will feature some $25.1bn worth of additional government spending; this will include $16.3bn for increased welfare payments, childcare subsidies and cost of living relief. The government describes this as ‘automatic spending increases’, while Finance Minister Katy Gallagher has flagged $8.8bn of ‘unavoidable spending’. Independent economic Chris Richardson refutes suggestions that some expenditure cannot be avoided.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

‘No legal basis’: Indonesian MP criticises decision to send remaining Bali Nine home

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Original article by Zach Hope, Karuni Rompies, Amilia Rosa
The Age – Page: Online : 17-Dec-24

Andreas Hugo Pareira has criticised the deal that has seen the remaining members of the Bali Nine returned to Australia, with Pareira being the deputy head of Indonesia’s parliamentary justice committee. Indonesia has struck a similar deal with the Philippines to return high profile death-row inmate Mary Jane Veloso back home, and Pareira says the prisoner deals with Australia and the Philippines goes against Indonesia’s Corrections law, and set a bad precedent. Pareira is a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, the current opposition to new Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto

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INDONESIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF STRUGGLE

Miners claim uranium ban negligent, nonsense policy

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Original article by Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 5 : 17-Dec-24

Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable will appear before a parliamentary inquiry into nuclear power on Tuesday. Constable will argue that there is no scientific, technical or economic justification for retaining Australia’s long-standing legislative ban on nuclear energy. She will also contend that adding nuclear to the nation’s energy mix will be necessary in order to fully decarbonise the domestic economy by 2050. Electrical Trades Union organiser Simon Brezovnik has told the inquiry that nuclear energy is too expensive and high-risk.

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MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, ELECTRICAL TRADES UNION

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition boosts primary support and retains clear two-party preferred lead for Christmas: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Dec-24

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with the two-party preferred vote unchanged from last week: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 41% – the highest since the last Federal Election and came at the expense of One Nation 5% (down 1.5%), and drops in support for the ALP 27.5% (down 0.5%), Greens 12.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties 3.5% (down 0.5%) which all lost support. Support for Independents remained steady at 10.5%. The rise in Coalition primary came after the RBA left interest rates unchanged and the Coalition outlined its energy plan to bring in nuclear power and lower energy costs.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Academic and banker to join RBA policy board

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 17-Dec-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government undertook a "very robust and very consultative" process to select the members of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s two new boards. Professor Renee Fry-McKibbin and former Bendigo Bank CEO Marnie Baker will join four of the RBA’s current external board members on the new interest-rate setting board, which will also include governor Michele Bullock, deputy governor Andrew Hauser and Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy. Current board members Carol Schwartz and Elana Rubin will join the RBA’s governance board.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN

Roy Morgan Business Confidence virtually unchanged in November after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged again

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

In November 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 106.9 (virtually unchanged from October) after the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at a 13-year high of 4.35%. Business Confidence is now 4.3pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 21.1pts from November 2023. Business Confidence is now at its most positive rating since April 2022, and is the highest it has been since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 58.6% (down 0.4ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while only 37.6% (up 0.8ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 47.4% (up 1.4ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 22.4% (up 1.8ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for November are based on 1,457 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.9pts to 85.5 after the end of the Friday/Cyber Monday sales period

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.9pts to 85.5 in the week to 8 December, following the end of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales weekend. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (80.8), and 2.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country, with a reversal of last weeks’ results including decreases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but increases in Victoria and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In November Australian unemployment dropped to 8.6% as employment grew by over 180,000 to a new record high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-24

In November 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 88,000 to 1,362,000 (down 0.6% to 8.6% of the workforce), with many of these people finding employment. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.54 million Australians (9.8% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 68,000 from October. In total, 2.91 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November. Meanwhile, Australian employment increased 183,000 to 14,430,000; this increase was driven by a rise in part-time employment, up 420,000 to 5,163,000 as the pre-Christmas and Black Friday sales period kicked off, but full-time employment decreased 237,000 to 9,267,000. The total workforce in November was 15,792,000 (up 95,000 from October, and up 874,000 from two years ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.6% for October is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for October but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Public sector hides bad news for unions

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 11-Dec-24

Recent data from Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that unions have recorded membership growth for the first time since 2011. However, new data reveals that this growth has been solely in the public sector, where union membership has increased by 191,000 over the last two years; in contrast, the number of private sector workers who are union members has fallen by more than 15,600 over this period. The number of public sector union members now exceed those in the private sector for the first time. ACTU secretary Sally McManus has sought to put a positive spin on the figures, but Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox says they underline the fact that unions are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ACTU, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

RBA lifts Labor hopes of rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 11-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. However, the RBA’s monetary policy statement has notably omitted a line which stated that the board is "not ruling anything in or out". RBA governor Michele Bullock has in turn noted that the latest wages and economic growth data has given the board some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining; however, she cautioned that the board is of the view that underlying price pressures are still too high. Bond traders have now priced in a 62 per cent chance of an official interest rate cut at the RBA’s next board meeting in February; a second rate cut has been widely tipped for April, with the federal election set to be held no later than mid-May.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA