O75 Public Administration

Central bank signals more hikes next year

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Original article by Harriet Torry
The Australian – Page: 30 : 16-Dec-16

The yield on 10-year US treasuries rose to 2.523 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated after the Federal Reserve indicated that it is likely to lift the cash rate by 75 basis points in 2017. The central bank had been widely tipped to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in December 2016, but policymakers had signalled in September that rates were likely to rise just twice in 2017. Federal Reserve officials have cited the outlook for inflation and the improving labour market as factors that prompted only the second rate rise in the last decade. Originally published in "The Wall Street Journal".

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, JP MORGAN CHASE AND COMPANY, WELLS FARGO BANK, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, NAVY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION, MORTGAGE BANKERS’ ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA, FIRST PORTLAND MORTGAGE CORPORATION, ALASKA RETIREMENT MANAGEMENT BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

New Prime Minister Bill English must find a solution to New Zealand’s growing ‘Housing Crisis’ – the largest problem facing New Zealanders in late 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 15-Dec-16

A special New Zealand Roy Morgan telephone survey, which was conducted in October 2016, shows that 40% of respondents (down 5% since July) identify Government/Public Policy/Housing issues as the most important problems facing New Zealand. Within this bundle of concerns, Housing affordability/Increasing house prices (17%) and Housing shortage/Homelessness (10%) are the most prominent. Meanwhile, 31% of New Zealanders identify Economic Issues as the most important problems facing the nation (down 1%). The survey also shows that 30% of New Zealanders regard War & Terrorism/Security issues/Refugee Crisis as the biggest problems facing the world (down 1%).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Government warned about risky NBN loan

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Original article by Primrose Riordan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 15-Dec-16

The Parliamentary Budget Office estimates that the National Broadband Network will have an $A8.8 billion negative impact on Australia’s net worth. The PBO also warns in a report released on 14 December 2016 that NBN CO could experience difficulties with raising enough capital to pay back a loan of $A19.5 billion from the Federal Government in November. Finance Minister Mathias Cormann says the PBO’s doubts are unwarranted.

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AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NBN CO LIMITED

Super-union not finished yet with mergers

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 15-Dec-16

The Construction, Forestry, Mining & Energy Union (CFMEU) is merging with the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA). A memorandum of understanding for the merger was signed on 14 December 2016. CFMEU national secretary Michael O’Connor and MUA national secretary Paddy Crumlin said more mergers will be considered if they are advantageous to members.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, MARITIME UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, TEXTILE, CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR UNION OF AUSTRALIA

AAA could go at any time

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 15-Dec-16

Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings have signalled that Australia’s triple-A credit rating could potentially be downgraded on 19 December 2016, following the release of the mid-year budget update. Both credit rating agencies have previously warned that the triple-A rating could be at risk if the Government fails to meet its target of 2020-21 for returning the Budget to surplus. Meanwhile, Adam Boynton of Deutsche Bank has forecast that nominal GDP growth will be 3.25 per cent in 2017-18, compared with the May Budget forecast of five per cent.

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MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Dodgy ABN’s ‘key to crackdown’

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Original article by Joanna Mather
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 15-Dec-16

The Australian Government’s taskforce on the cash economy will release an interim report in March 2017. The taskforce will be led by Michael Andrew, who says the large number of Australian Business Numbers that have been issued but have never incurred a tax liability is a major concern. He has also flagged the potential to impose harsher penalties as part of the crackdown on the cash economy, and adds that the $A100 note would not be missed by most consumers if it were withdrawn from circulation.

CORPORATES
KPMG, SWINBURNE UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Crackdown on cash economy targets billions

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Original article by Joanna Mather
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 14-Dec-16

The Federal Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook will include the creation of a taskforce aimed at combating the cash economy. It will be headed by former KPMG executive Michael Andrew, and one of its priorities will be to investigate the large number of $A100 notes that are in circulation, despite the growing trend toward electronic payments. The taskforce’s final report will be delivered in October 2017. It is estimated that the cash economy accounts for about 1.5 per cent of Australia’s GDP, which equates to $A21bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, KPMG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HUMAN SERVICES, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN TRANSACTION REPORTS AND ANALYSIS CENTRE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF IMMIGRATION AND BORDER PROTECTION, CHARTERED ACCOUNTANTS AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL AUDIT OFFICE, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. BOARD OF TAXATION, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

PM’s GST floor to stem mine tax leakage: Grylls

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Original article by Andrew Burrell
The Australian – Page: 6 : 14-Dec-16

The Minerals Council of Australia has released a report which suggests that Western Australia would lose $A2.02bn worth of GST revenue if it increased the iron ore levy. However, WA National Party leader Brendon Grylls argues that this analysis excluded the impact of the Federal Government’s proposed "floor" for the distribution of GST revenue. The state would be likely to retain most of the proceeds of the levy, as its share of GST revenue has fallen well below the proposed floor of about $A0.70 in the dollar.

CORPORATES
MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Australian real unemployment steady at 9.2% (1.199m Australians); Under-employment down 1.5% to 8.4% (1.1m)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

In November 2016 a total of 2.299 million Australians, 17.6% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,199,000) or under-employed (1,100,000). This is down 237,000 (down 2%) from November 2015. Unemployment is comparable to a year ago with 1.199 million Australians now unemployed (up 13,000 in a year but steady at 9.2% due to overall growth in the workforce). These real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for October 2016 (5.6%). In November, the Australian workforce increased to 13,046,000 (up 92,000 since November 2015), and total employment increased to 11,847,000 (up 79,000). Full-time employment is now 7,950,000 – up 374,000 from a year ago (7,576,000 in November 2015). In contrast, part-time employment has decreased by 295,000 to 3,897,000 over the past year (an average of just under 25,000 per month). The lower part-time employment contributed to the fall in under-employment; now 8.4% of Australians 1,100,000 (down 250,000 since November 2015) are under-employed (down 2%).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Gary Morgan comment on Roy Morgan real unemployment unchanged at 9.2% in November

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

Australia’s continuing high level of real unemployment and under-employment – now above 2 million for a 14th straight month – has persistently indicated the weakness in the broader Australian economy, which has now been confirmed by Australia’s first quarter of negative GDP growth since the March quarter 2011. The ABS announced last week that Australian GDP shrunk 0.5% in the September quarter 2016. The election of Donald Trump in the US last month proves that politicians who take the concerns of their people seriously will find electoral success. Trump consistently asserted during his campaign that real unemployment in the US was far higher than the figures quoted by the official Bureau of Labor Statistics – over 20%, and perhaps even over 30%. The Turnbull Government must learn the lesson provided by Trump’s election without delay.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS