O75 Public Administration

Labor faces $7.4b wages black hole

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Jan-25

The federal public service wages bill increased by 11.7 per cent in 2023-24, due to wage rises and the addition of about 15,000 new staffers. The Treasury’s forecasts suggest that the public service wages bill is set to increase by another 10.8 per cent in 2023-24; however, the federal government’s recent mid-year budget update assumes that annual growth in the public services wages bill will then remain flat at $30 billion for the following three financial years. This forecast is at odds with the government’s latest enterprise agreement for public servants, which featured a pay rise of 11.2 per cent over the three years to March 2026.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Dutton, PM spar over power prices

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Original article by Greg Brown, Michael McKenna
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Jan-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Cairns on Tuesday, as part of a tour of regional Queensland. He contended that Opposition leader Peter Dutton is not interested in capitalising on the job opportunities that will arise from the transition to net-zero emissions, arguing that he has a plan to stop investment in Australia rather than a plan for the future. Building seven nuclear power stations is a key element of the Coalition’s energy policy, and Dutton contends that nuclear power will be one-third of the current cost of electricity in Australia. He adds that Albanese is a "desperate prime minister" leading a "desperate government with no vision for the future". Dutton notes that Albanese has admitted that he has broken an election promise of a $275 reduction in households’ electricity bills by 2025.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.6pts to 87.5, highest start to New Year for three years since 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Jan-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.6pts to 87.5 in in early January, with the traditional ‘New Year’s bump’. Consumer Confidence is now 2.7 points above the same week a year ago (84.8), and 4.6 points above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows increases in the four largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but a decline in South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 46% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 29% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 28% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 42% (down 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

PM’s green tape tangle for miners

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Original article by Noah Yim, Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Jan-25

The Minerals Council of Australia has expressed concern about key elements of the federal government’s proposed critical minerals production tax incentive scheme. The MCA contends that the ‘community benefit principles’ requirement of the tax incentive would create uncertainty for the nation’s critical minerals industry, which is already facing strong global competition. The government estimates that the tax incentive will cost about $7bn over a decade, but create secure jobs in Australia and diversify global supply chains by processing critical minerals onshore rather than exporting the raw materials overseas.

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MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers to press on with super tax hike

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Dec-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government has no plans to tighten tax concessions, although it intends to proceed with its existing tax reform agenda. This includes legislation to double the tax rate on the earnings of superannuation funds whose balance exceeds $3m; the legislation has been stalled in the Senate amid a push by both the Greens and crossbenchers for amendments. Meanwhile, the Treasury’s annual Tax Expenditures and Insights Statement shows that superannuation tax concessions are expected to cost the federal budget about $55.2bn in 2024-25.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Record insolvencies tarnish Chalmers’ spin

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Dec-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission undermines the federal government’s economic credentials. The figures show that 12,405 businesses were declared insolvent in the first 11 months of 2024. This includes a record 1,442 business failures in November, which is 62 per cent higher year-on-year. Nearly 26,000 businesses have collapsed since Labor won the May 2022 federal election; Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley notes that this is approximately the same as the number of additional public servants Labor has hired since it took office. Separate data shows that the number of welfare recipients has risen by about 83,000 year-on-year.

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AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.8% in mid-December – up from 4.7% for the month of November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Dec-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of 9-15 December. This figure is below the average this year of 4.9%, but up 0.1% points from the month of November. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for November shows the measure at 4.7% for the month – unchanged from September and October, and below the average so far this year of 4.9%. Looking back over the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.5% to 5.3% and averaged 4.9%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,012 Australians aged 14+ in November 2024.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.6pts to 83.9 as buying intentions plunge after the end of the Black Friday/ Cyber Monday sales period

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Dec-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.6pts to 83.9 in the week to 15 December, following the end of the Black Friday sales period. However, Consumer Confidence is now 2.1 points above the same week a year ago (81.8), and 1 point above the 2024 weekly average of 82.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows varied results around the country with decreases in NSW, Victoria, and WA, offsetting small increases in Queensland and SA. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (down 5ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Pesutto leadership on the line as he faces special party room meeting

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Original article by Kieran Rooney
The Age – Page: Online : 17-Dec-24

A special meeting of the Victorian Liberal party room will be held on Friday, with its purpose being to return exiled MP Moira Deeming to the party room. The meeting is seen as a test of the leadership of John Pesutto, who last week lost his high-profile defamation case against Deeming. He was ordered to pay her $300,000 in damages, with Justice David O’Callaghan finding that Pesutto harmed Deeming’s reputation by "repeatedly and falsely implying that she knowingly associated with neo-Nazis". Deeming said after the judgement that she expected and wanted to be returned to the Liberal party room, while Pesutto has previously stated that any decision about her status is for the party room.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA

‘No legal basis’: Indonesian MP criticises decision to send remaining Bali Nine home

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Original article by Zach Hope, Karuni Rompies, Amilia Rosa
The Age – Page: Online : 17-Dec-24

Andreas Hugo Pareira has criticised the deal that has seen the remaining members of the Bali Nine returned to Australia, with Pareira being the deputy head of Indonesia’s parliamentary justice committee. Indonesia has struck a similar deal with the Philippines to return high profile death-row inmate Mary Jane Veloso back home, and Pareira says the prisoner deals with Australia and the Philippines goes against Indonesia’s Corrections law, and set a bad precedent. Pareira is a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, the current opposition to new Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto

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INDONESIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF STRUGGLE