O75 Public Administration

Stevens: we’re kidding ourselves

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 11-Aug-16

Glenn Stevens has warned that more investment is needed to stimulate economic growth. The departing governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said on 10 August 2016 that monetary policy cannot revive economic growth on its own, and fiscal reforms are also needed. It is also necessary to curb demand for debt among companies and households. Stevens will leave the RBA in September, and will be succeeded by deputy governor Philip Lowe.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NAB forecasts more cuts in interest rates

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 10-Aug-16

National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by another 50 basis points in the next 12 months, to a record low of one per cent. The banking major anticipates rate cuts in both May and August 2017. Meanwhile, NAB’s latest monthly survey shows that both business sentiment and business conditions declined in July 2016. Likewise, the ANZ Bank-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index fell by 2.8 per cent in the first week of August.

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NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Gary Morgan’s comment on this week’s Consumer Confidence & Business Confidence – both down

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-16

This week’s fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence – down 3.3pts to 114.7 – follows a similar fall in Roy Morgan Business Confidence during July – down 3.4pts to 116.1. Both falls come as the new Turnbull Government deals with a closer than expected Federal Election result and a record 11 Senate cross-benchers. Although that might at first appear to be a huge problem for the Turnbull Government, the fact that most of the new cross-benchers in the Senate are right-of-centre should make dealing with the Senate easier during this term of Parliament than it was during the last term and it should be possible for the Government to pass its reforms with corporate tax cuts and the Australian Building & Construction Commission (ABCC) to increase workplace productivity. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low 1.25% last week is a step in the right direction to stimulate the broader Australian economy; however, a further cut of 1% at the RBA’s next meeting is required to be competitive with international competitors including the US & UK and deal with the rising $A and slowing Australian economy after the end of the mining boom.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence takes a hit – down 3.3pts to 114.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has fallen by 2.8 per cent to 114.7 in the week ending 7 August 2016. This is a surprising result given that the RBA cut the cash rate to a historic low of 1.5 per cent last Tuesday. While the drop is disappointing, overall confidence remains well above its long run average. The deterioration in confidence was relatively broadly based. Consumers’ views of their current finances fell by 2.4 per cent, and households’ views of the economic outlook in the next 12 months fell by 8.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Down for the count: census thrown into chaos

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Original article by Simone Fox Koob, Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Aug-16

Concerns about the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ management of personal information have been underscored by the failure of its website to cope with the nation’s inaugural digital-first census. Many people who tried to fill out their census form online on 9 August 2016 encountered server problems, with the website either not available or generating error messages. Some federal politicians have refused to put their name on the census form due to fears that such information will be retained for much longer than in the past.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, THE STATISTICAL SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, NICK XENOPHON TEAM

Business Confidence lower in July – down 2.8% to 116.1 during month of political uncertainty

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 2.8% to 116.1 in July 2016 following the inconclusive Australian Federal Election at the start of July. The fall in Business Confidence comes despite an upward trend on the Australian sharemarket in July – the All Ordinaries closed the end of July at 5,644 (up 6.3% (or 334pts) from June 30, 5310). This was the highest close for exactly a year since July 31, 2015 (5,681). The fall in Business Confidence in July means Business Confidence has dipped just below the 6yr average of 116.7.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Gary Morgan’s comment on Roy Morgan July Business Confidence

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-16

Although the result in the House of Representatives at the recent Federal Election was disappointing, the result in the Senate is probably better for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. The increase in the cross-bench at first appears challenging for the Turnbull Government; however, the fact is that most of the new Senators are right-of-centre and likely to be favourable to the Government’s broader Budget and policy agenda. Two of the most important policies the Government took to the election were significant corporate tax cuts and the re-introduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) to improve workplace productivity in the Construction industry. Despite the challenges, the Government should be able to pass these important reforms which will stimulate an Australian economy still dealing with the end of the mining boom.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Windfalls exempt from super cap

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 9-Aug-16

Australians who receive large sums of money as a result of "life events" will be offered an exemption from the proposed $A500,000 lifetime cap on non-concessional superannuation contributions. "Life events" include accident-related compensation payments, lottery wins and divorce settlements. Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison has stressed that the proposed cap on super contributions is necessary to make the super system more equitable.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI

Questions over IR judge’s role in CFA row

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Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 8-Aug-16

The role of Fair Work Commission president Iain Ross in the Victorian Country Fire Authority dispute is under scrutiny. Former CFA board member and farmer Michael Freshwater has questioned whether Ross acted impartially in the dispute over an enterprise bargaining agreement. He has written to Employment Minister Michaelia Cash requesting an independent inquiry. There have been suggestions that despite being a state issue, the CFA dispute may have affected Labor’s chances of winning the federal election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, VICTORIA. COUNTRY FIRE AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, EAST GIPPSLAND LIVESTOCK EXCHANGE, EAST GIPPSLAND SHIRE COUNCIL, VICTORIA. DEPT OF JUSTICE AND REGULATION, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Unhappy crossbenchers threaten IR laws

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Original article by Primrose Riordan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 8-Aug-16

Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm has accused the Coalition of reneging on a deal to include a sunset clause in legislation to extend a ban on the importation of the Adler A110 shotgun. He says that the Coalition may now not be able to count on his support for a bill to reinstate the Australian Building & Construction Commission. Senator Leyonhjelm also intends to introduce legislation to scrap section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, a reform which the Coalition had backed down on.

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LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA