O75 Public Administration

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps 12.4pts to 106.7 in October as official inflation falls into the RBA’s target range

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-24

In October 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 106.7 (up 12.4pts since September) as official ABS monthly inflation dropped from 3.5% in July to 2.7% in August (announced in late September) and has now fallen to only 2.1% in September (announced in late October). Business Confidence is now 4.5pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 16.3pts on October 2023. Roy Morgan Business Confidence has now improved to its most positive rating since April 2022, and is the highest it has been since the Albanese Government was elected in May 2022. Now 59% (up 6.8ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2022), while only 36.8% (down 7.9ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2022). Meanwhile, 46.3% (up 5.2ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.6% (down 4.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for October are based on 1,884 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Labor fails to rein in migration

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Original article by Julie Hare, Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 13-Nov-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that net overseas migration totalled 391,850 people in the first nine months of 2024. This is the highest level ever recorded for the first three quarters of a calendar year, eclipsing the record of 390,580 that was set in 2023. Monthly arrivals in the first quarter of 2024-25 averaged 41,823; the Institute of Public Affairs has estimated that this will need to fall to just 21,670 if the federal government’s net migration target of 260,000 for the current financial year is to be achieved. Meanwhile, Department of Home Affairs data shows that Immigration Minister Tony Burke did not cancel any visas on character grounds during his first month in the portfolio.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS

PM to quote Turnbull in Trump tariff talks

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Nov-24

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel to Peru on Wednesday to attend the APEC leaders’ summit, ahead of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro next week. However, he has rejected the Coalition’s push to have a stopover in the US to meet with president-elect Donald Trump, amid concerns that Australia will be directly impacted by his proposed tariff of up to 20 per cent on all non-China imports. Albanese has indicated that he will use similar arguments in tariff talks with Trump as those of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2017; the latter’s argument that Australia was one of the few nations that had a trade surplus with the US helped convince Trump to shelve plans to impose punitive tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20), UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Workers, don’t bank on wage rise

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 5 : 12-Nov-24

Data from the Australian Human Resources Institute shows that 23 per cent of employers intend to impose a wage freeze in the year to October 2025. This compares with 16 per cent of respondents to its survey in the Septemer quarter. Respondents also indicated that they expect a mean basic pay increase of just 2.7 per cent excluding bonuses in the next year; Australia’s annual inflation rate was 2.8 per cent in the year to September. AHRI CEO Sarah McCann-Bartlett said the data provides further evidence that the surge in wages growth over the last two years might have peaked.

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AUSTRALIAN HUMAN RESOURCES INSTITUTE

Labor urged to champion crypto following US poll

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Original article by Noah YimSarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 12-Nov-24

Liberal MP Simon Kennedy has used a speech to the Tech Council summit in Melbourne to voice support for the cryptocurrency sector and to call on the federal government to provide clear regulation for the sector. His comments come in the wake of the election of Donald Trump as US President, with the crypto sector having strongly supported his campaign; it is understood to have spent over $200 million in the US election. Liberal senator Andrew Bragg, who is a noted advocate of crypto and has previously introduced legislation on the matter, says that "I think that the crypto industry knows that if we are elected, that we will deliver legal certainty".

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

McKenzie persists with Qantas probe

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Original article by Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-Nov-24

Opposition transport spokeswoman Bridget McKenzie has not ruled convening a Senate inquiry into Qantas, former CEO Alan Joyce and his relationship with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. She had initially called for such an inquiry after it was claimed in a book that Albanese would liaise with Joyce directly about getting flight upgrades when he was minister and shadow minister for transport, with Albanese having denied he ever asked Joyce or anyone else at Qantas for an upgrade. McKenzie’s refusal to rule out an inquiry into the issue is despite her being forced recently to disclose 16 of her own flight upgrades and the major parties appearing to have called a truce on the matter.

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QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QANAUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

A quantum Psi of relief for Qld taxpayer

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Original article by Lydia Lynch
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 12-Nov-24

The new Queensland government has indicated that it may withdraw from its Labor predecessor’s deal to invest $470m in a quantum computing project. Treasurer David Janetzki has stated that he will closely scrutinise the full details of Labor’s deal to match the federal government’s investment in US-based PsiQuantum’s project to build a ‘fault-tolerant’ quantum computer in Brisbane. Janetzki had raised concerns in Opposition regarding the viability of the project and the secrecy that surrounded the tender process.

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QUEENSLAND. TREASURYPSIQUANTUM CORPORATIONAUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition retains a narrow lead over Labor as Donald Trump wins US Presidential Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Nov-24

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the Coalition 50.5% (down 0.5%) narrowly ahead of the ALP 49.5% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. The close result and the large size of the crossbench (currently 16 seats) means either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government. Primary vote support was little changed for the major parties, with the Coalition down 0.5% to 37.5% and the ALP unchanged at 30.5%; however, the Greens dipped 1.5% to 12.5%. One Nation increased 0.5% to 6.5%, Other Parties were up 0.5% to 4.5% and Independents increased 1% to 8.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITEDMORGAN POLLAUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTYLIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIANATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIAAUSTRALIAN GREENSONE NATION PARTY

Green boom at risk from trade war

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Original article by John KehoePhillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 12-Nov-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has used a speech at the Australian Institute of International Affairs conference to warn that the nation would be particularly vulnerable in the event of a trade war between the US and China. He noted that trade in goods and services accounts for about 50 per cent of the Australian economy, compared with just 25 of the US economy. Chalmers added that Australia’s aim of becoming a major exporter of ‘green’ metals and hydrogen in particular would be jeopardised by a trade war. US president-elect Donald Trump has flagged a tariff of 60 per cent on Chinese imports, and a tariff of 10-20 per cent on all other countries.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURYAUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

A $2.3m gamble led to Cup glory

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 6-Nov-24

About 90,000 spectators were at Flemington on Tuesday to see 80-1 outsider Knight’s Choice win the Melbourne Cup in a photo finish. The owners of Knight’s Choice paid just $85,000 for the five-year-old gelding, which exceeded all expectations by winning the race and $4.4m in prizemoney. Winning trainer Sheila Laxon had urged owner Cameron Bain to accept an offer from Hong Kong interests to buy Knight’s Choice for $2.3m in 2023. Laxon has now trained two Melbourne Cup winners from two attempts, having won with Ethereal in 2001. The winning jockey, Robbie Dolan, made his Melbourne Cup debut on Knight’s Choice.

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