O75 Public Administration

Public service forecast has $11.8b shortfall

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Original article by Luke Kinsella
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 29-Jan-26

The federal government had forecast in its March 2025 budget that the public service wages bill will remain steady at about $30bn annually over the next four years. However, analysis of the independent Parliamentary Budget Office’s costing suggest that government spending will rise by $11.8bn over the next four years if the number of public servants remains at the current level of about 213,000. The analysis also indicates that the government would need to reduce the public service headcount by 28,000 over the next four years in order to achieve its budget forecast.

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AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

Liberal elders step in as Ley ignored

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Original article by Greg BrownLachlan Leeming
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 29-Jan-26

Liberal MPs Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor are expected to meet in Melbourne today to negotiate a deal to put forward a single candidate from the party’s conservative faction to challenge Opposotion leader Sussan Ley. However, a leadership spill is considered unlikly when parliament resumes next week, given that the majority of the Liberals’ moderates have expressed support for Ley. Meanwhile, Nationals leader David Littleproud has refuted suggestions that the party rebuffed Ley’s request for the two leaders to meet in a bid to reunite the Coalition. Littleproud has indicated that he is prepared to hold talks with Ley after the Nationals have dealt with their own spill motion; the motion to be put forward by Queensland MP Colin Boyce is not expected to gain much traction among his colleagues.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIANATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers’ hard landing hits home

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Original article by Thomas HenryMatthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Jan-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the rise in the inflation rate in the December quarter was "difficult and unwelcome, but not surprising". He has also denied that increased government spending has contributed to the rise in inflation. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the annnual headline inflation rate rose from 3.2 per cent to 3.7 per cent, with the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation rising to 3.4 per cent. The data shows that housing costs rose by 5.5 per cent annually, while food inflation increased by 3.4 per cent. Financial markets and many economists now expect the Reserve Bank to increase the cash rate in February.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINETAUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICSRESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.7pts to 84.0 in the lead-in to the Australia Day long weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.7pts to 84.0 in the week to 25 January; however, it is still 2pts lower than a year ago (86.0), and 2.3pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Now 20% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 39% (down 6ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Looking forward, 25% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 37% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITEDAUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Chinese envoy warns of trade-ties risk over forced Darwin Port sale

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 29-Jan-26

China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qia, has used his annual press conference in Canberra to warn of likely repercussions if the federal government forces Landbridge to relinquish its 99-year lease on the Port of Darwin. He argued that Beijing has an obligation to protect the legitimate overseas interests of Chinese companies, and notes that Landbridge has invested significantly in the port since being granted the lease in 2015. Xiao indicated that future Chinese investment in Australia could be affected if Landbridge is required to sell its lease. The company is privately owned, but a parliamentary inquiry in 2020 concluded that it has extensive links to both the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army.

CORPORATES
PORT OF DARWINLANDBRIDGE GROUP COMPANY LIMITEDCOMMUNIST PARTY (CHINA)PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY OF CHINA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slumps 5.2pts to 79.3; lowest Consumer Confidence for 18 months since July 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 5.2pts to 79.3 in the week to 18 January; it is now 6.5pts lower than a year ago (85.8), and 7pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Consumer Confidence is now at its lowest level since the week of 8-14 July 2024 (78.5). Analysis by State shows large falls in New South Wales and Queensland, and small falls in Victoria and South Australia, while Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2023), while 45% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 25% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 4ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since November 2023), while 34% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 6ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (up 6ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2025).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 5.6% in mid-January – up 0.1% points from the month of December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations have remained high so far in 2026 and were at 5.6% for the week of 12-18 January, up 0.1% points from the full month of December 2025. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for December 2025 shows the measure at 5.5% for the month – up 0.4% points from the prior month of November, the highest monthly figure since July 2023. Looking back over the last six months, since mid-July, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.7% to 5.6%, and averaged 5.1%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for December shows increases in all five mainland States, but a decline in the island State of Tasmania (down 0.9% to 5.1%, and now clearly the lowest Inflation Expectations of any State). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Increasing majority of Australians (72%) say January 26 should be known as ‘Australia Day’, and say the date of Australia Day should stay on January 26 (60.5%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll shows that 72% of Australians now say January 26 should stay as ‘Australia Day’, up 3.5% from two years ago. Only 28% (down 3.5%) say January 26 should be called ‘Invasion Day’. Meanwhile, 60.5% (up 2% from 2024) of respondents say the date of Australia Day should not be moved, while 39.5% (down 2%) say it should be moved. An increasingly large majority of men favour January 26 staying as ‘Australia Day’ rather than ‘Invasion Day’ by a margin of almost 5:1 (83% cf. 17%) a significant change from two years ago (76.5% cf. 23.5%). In contrast, women are more evenly split; a majority of 61% (down 0.5% points from two years ago) are in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’, while 39% (up 0.5% points) say it should be known as ‘Invasion Day’. This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,311 Australians aged 18+ from January 14-16.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.46 million in December – 13 months straight above 3 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

In December 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 41,000 to 1,669,000 (up 0.2%, to 10.4% of the workforce). More people were looking for full-time work in December (up 68,000 to 667,000), although there were fewer people looking for part-time work (down 27,000 to 1,002,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.79 million Australians (11.1% of the workforce, up 0.4%) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 78,000 from November). In total 3.46 million Australians (21.5% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December. Meanwhile, employment increased by 89,000 to 14,428,000; Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 16,097,000 in December (up 130,000 on a month ago), and representing 69.2% of Australians aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Labor’s hate speech laws pass Senate in late-night vote as Nationals split from Liberals to oppose bill

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Original article by Tom McIlroy, Dan Jervis-Bardy
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 21-Jan-26

The federal government’s hate speech bill has been passed by both houses of parliament, after Labor secured a deal with Opposition leader Sussan Ley regarding further changes to the legislation. Amongst other things, the legislation creates a new aggravated offence for religious or spiritual leaders who advocate violence, while people who join designated hate groups or provide them with funding could be jailed. The Senate voted 38-22 to pass the bill late on Tuesday night, despite the Nationals voting against it after all of their proposed amendments where rejected; the bill had been passed by the lower house earlier in the day. Meanwhile, the government’s legislation to establish a national gun buyback scheme has been passed with the support of the Greens.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS