O75 Public Administration

Roy Morgan Poll: ALP (50.5%) now marginally ahead of the Coalition (49.5%) after Albanese Government’s strong stance on putting the CFMEU into administration

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Sep-24

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 50.5% (up 1%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. This was a reverse of last week’s results after the Albanese Government’s strong stance on placing the CFMEU into administration last week; however, the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government. The result once again highlights the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result. The ALP primary vote increased 1% to 30.5%, Coalition support dropped 3.5% to 36% – its lowest for nearly three months. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 13% while support for One Nation was up 2% to 6%, support for Other Parties was unchanged at 5% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 9.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION

‘Too far’: ALP frontbencher’s warning to Reserve Bank

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Sep-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says CPI data to be released on Wednesday will underline the impact of interest rate rises on the economy. Chalmers contends that he is "not taking a shot at anyone", although some observers have suggested that he is seeking to blame the Reserve Bank for the slowdown in the economy. Independent economist Saul Eslake says the fact that there has been only a small uptick in the unemployment rate refutes Chalmers’ claim that the Reserve Bank’s interest rate increases are "smashing the economy". Meanwhile, Assistant Immigration Minister Matt Thistlethwaite says the central bank must not go "too far" in seeking to combat inflation.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Households deplete pandemic savings

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 28-Aug-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia has estimated that the nation’s households had amassed excess savings of about $300bn during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, National Australia Bank believes that this figure was about $200bn. Meanwhile, research from Yarra Capital Management suggests that households had most likely exhausted these pandemic-era savings by March 2024. Economists are now speculating as to whether consumers will opt to spend or save the additional income from the stage-three tax cuts that took effect on 1 July. Too much spending could force the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold for longer than expected.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, YARRA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations drop to 4.8% in late August – down from 5.1% for the month of July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Aug-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of August 19-25. This figure is below the average so far in 2024 of 5.0%, and down 0.3% points from the month of July. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for July shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, up 0.2% points from a month earlier and the highest monthly figure since April (5.2%). Looking back over the first seven months of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%, and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,200 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,088 Australians aged 14+ in July 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation watch: mind the gap

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 28-Aug-24

Economists expect official data to be released on Wednesday will show that Australia’s headline inflation rate eased to 3.4 per cent in the year to July, compared with 3.8 per cent in June. HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says the Reserve Bank’s board is likely to overlook the headline inflation figure when it meets in September, given that its preferred measure of underlying inflation is expected to be higher. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although inflation remains "sticky and stubborn", Labor has made a lot of progress in reducing it since taking office in May 2022. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor contends that Labor’s cost-of-living measures will temporarily reduce the headline inflation rate.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.6 in late August; highest six-week average since February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Aug-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.6 in the week to 25 August; however, the index has now spent a record 82 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.5 points above the same week a year ago (78.1), and 0.7 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. Consumer Confidence is up in Victoria and Western Australia, but down in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

CFMEU vows to destroy the ALP

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Original article by Ewin Hannan, Mohammad Alfares
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 28-Aug-24

More than 60,000 construction workers downed tools on Tuesday to join capital city protests against the federal government’s move to appoint administrators to the CFMEU’s construction divisions. Sacked CFMEU state leaders said they will campaign for the "absolute destruction" of Labor, urging union members to vote against the party at the next federal election and the state polls in Queensland and NSW. Former Queensland state secretary Michael Ravbar intends to pursue a High Court challenge against the administration, while former national secretary Christy Cain has urged Maritime Union of Australia members to join the next rally in solidarity with the CFMEU.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MARITIME UNION OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers unmoved by $3m super-tax critics

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 27-Aug-24

Former prime minister Paul Keating has criticised the federal government in regard to its proposal to increase the tax on high-value superannuation accounts. Keating is unhappy about the part of the proposal that involves taxing unrealised gains, while he says if there has to be a threshold, it should be at least $5 million and should be indexed; the government is talking about an account balance threshold of $3 million and does not plan to index it at this stage. Crossbench MPs have echoed Keating’s concerns, but Treasurer Jim Chalmers has rejected the criticisms of Keating and the crossbench MPs, contending his proposals are modest and that he is not open to amending them.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Coalition’s $100bn savings formula

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 27-Aug-24

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor says the Coalition will pursue a ‘back to basics’ economic agenda if it wins the next federal election. The Coalition has identified nearly $100bn worth of savings it can make by scrapping government programs and initiatives. They include the Housing Australia Future Fund, the Rewiring the Nation program and the Future Made in Australia policy. Taylor says the government’s excessive spending is driving up the longer term inflation rate, and notes this has been acknowledged by the Reserve Bank.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

PM’s offence minister: Dutton is dangerous

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 27-Aug-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has defended his economic record in a speech to the Labor-aligned John Curtin Research Centre in Melbourne. Chalmers also used the speech to outline Labor’s plans to create a new ‘fourth economy’ over coming decades, which will be driven by energy, technology, demography, industry and geography; he noted that the nation’s three previous ‘economies’ have occurred roughly 40 years apart. Chalmers also used his speech to criticise Opposition leader Peter Dutton, describing him as the most divisive leader of a major political party in Australia’s modern history.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, JOHN CURTIN RESEARCH CENTRE