O75 Public Administration

Public sector jobs boom a poor investment

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 10-Sep-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has contended that government spending prevented the economy from recording negative growth in the June quarter. Strong jobs growth in the public service over the last year was a key driver of government spending over the quarter. However, analysis of the latest national accounts data shows that productivity in the public service – as well as government-funded sectors such as health and education – fell to 2006 levels during the quarter. IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner says jobs growth in these ‘non-market sectors’ are fuelling the decline in productivity; he adds that when these sectors are excluded, productivity is quite good.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

Roy Morgan Poll: Federal voting intention virtually unchanged this week with ALP (51%) marginally ahead of the Coalition (49%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Sep-24

If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 51% (up 0.5%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. There was a slight movement to the ALP on a two-party preferred result this week; however, the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government. The result again shows the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result. The ALP primary vote decreased 0.5% to 30% while Coalition support increased 0.5% to 36.5%. Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 14.5% while One Nation was unchanged at 6%. Support for Other Parties dropped 1.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Inflation is smashing incomes more than interest rates are

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Original article by John Kehoe, Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 10-Sep-24

Challenger’s chief economist Jonathan Kearns refutes claims by Treasurer Jim Chalmers that the Reserve Bank’s interest rate rises are "smashing the economy". The latest national accounts data shows that total household incomes rose by 6.2 per cent in 2023-24. Kearns contends that interest rates eroded just 1.3 percentage points of the income gains, compared with the 4.4 percentage point impact of inflation. He notes that unlike interest rates, inflation affects all households. Kearns is a former economist at the Reserve Bank.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF

Treasurer’s panic and disloyalty

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Original article by Dennis Shanahan, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Sep-24

Former prime minister John Howard has criticised Treasurer Jim Chalmers for attempting to blame the Reserve Bank of Australia for the nation’s high interest rates. He contends that this has badly backfired, and RBA governor Michele Bullock does not deserve to be attacked in this way. Howard has also defended the performance of Bullock and the RBA’s board, arguing that they have had no alternative to raising the cash rate, due to factors such as the level of inflation and government spending. However, former RBA governor Bernie Fraser says the central bank has lost credibility and needs to reduce the cash rate sooner rather than later.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

National support up in August as National-led Government increases lead to 10% points and RBNZ cut interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-24

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for August 2024 shows that support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has increased by 3% points to 53%, increasing its lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 43% (down 1% points). Support for the National Party rose 3.5% points to 36% (the highest level of support since February), but support for ACT dropped 1.5% points to 9.5%; support for NZ First increased 1% point to 7.5%. Meanwhile, support for Labour increased by 2.5% points to 26.5%, support for the Greens was down 1% point to 13% and support for the Maori Party dropped 2.5% points to 3.5%. A further 4% (down 2% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. The survey results for August would lead to 66 seats (down two seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 54 seats (down one seat) for the Opposition. This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 898 electors from July 29 to August 25. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 7.5pts to 97.5 in August.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

Sacked CFMEU leaders remain in ranks of Victorian ALP

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Original article by Damon Johnston, Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Sep-24

The militant CFMEU is under renewed scrutiny following revelations that about 300 of its members are also ‘grassroots’ members of the Labor Party in Victoria. They include four CFMEU officials who were sacked after the federal government recently legislated to appoint an administrator to its construction division. One of the sacked officials, Joe Myles, is also a member of Victorian Labor’s public office selection committee, which plays a key role in selecting state and federal candidates at elections.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Andrew Giles approved rule change that raised risk serious criminals might keep visas

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Original article by Paul Karp
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 4-Sep-24

Former immigration minister Andrew Giles continues to attract scrutiny over his handling of visas for non-citizens who have been convicted of crimes in Australia. Documents obtained via freedom of information laws show that Giles had increased the threshold for ministerial reconsideration of visa cancellations on character grounds in March 2023. Giles had previously reviewed cases from the Administative Appeals Tribunal if a non-citizen was deemed to be a ‘serious risk’ of offending, but this threshold was raised to a ‘very serious ongoing risk’. This decision was overturned by Tony Burke when he took over the home affairs and immigration portfolio earlier in 2024.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 83.1 in early September; Inflation Expectations drop to lowest weekly figure since November 2021

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 83.1 in the week to 1 September; the index has now spent a record 83 straight weeks below the mark of 85. However, Consumer Confidence is now 4.4 points above the same week a year ago (78.7), and it is now 1.2 points above the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in NSW and SA, down in Queensland and Western Australia, and virtually unchanged in Victoria. Now 23% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Now 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. Meanwhile, Inflation expectations eased 0.2ppt to 4.6% this week, its lowest reading since late 2021.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Labor stares down furious CFMEU’s court challenge

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Sep-24

The CFMEU’s former national president Jade Ingham says legislation to appoint an administrator to its construction division is "unconstitutional and undemocratic". He has launched a legal challenge to the legislation in the High Court, contending that the laws could potentially be used to target any organisation that "gets off-side" of the federal government. Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have stated that the federal government had expected a legal challenge and has prepared for it.

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 4.3 pts to 92.2 in August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Sep-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose 4.3 points in August to 92.2. Consumer Confidence is still well below its 10-year average (109), but also well off its lows. The future conditions index rose 5 points to 100.5 in August; the current conditions index lifted 2 points but remains much more subdued at 79.7. Net perceptions of current personal financial situations were unchanged at -18% in August; 23% (unchanged) of New Zealanders say they are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 41% (also unchanged) say they are ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, a net 17% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year, down 3 points from a month ago. A net 23% of New Zealanders think it is a bad time to buy a major household item (down 7% from a month ago). Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations were little changed at 3.8%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED