O75 Public Administration

Treasurer on the defensive as RBA raises alarm over big-spending budgets

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 19-Jun-24

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the central bank’s board is prepared to "do what is necessary" to restore inflation to its target range by mid-2025. The RBA’s decision on Tuesday to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent had been widely expected by economists. Bullock has indicated that the board had considered a rate rise, while a rate cut had not been on the agenda; she notes that the inflation figures for April were "a bit higher than expected". The RBA also expressed concern in its monetary policy statement that cost-of-living relief and other spending measures in federal and state budgets may fuel inflation. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the government’s strategy is "the right one".

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Outlier economist predicts two rate rises this year

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 15 : 18-Jun-24

Economists at three of Australia’s four major banks are of the view that interest rates have peaked and the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin easing monetary policy in November. Other economists expect the first rate cut in 2025. However, Judo Bank’s economic adviser Warren Hogan expects the RBA to increase the cash rate in both August and November. He says the central bank’s board will be concerned about recent economic data such as higher-than-expected jobs growth in May, which suggests that inflation will remain above the target range. He adds that tax cuts and governments’ cost-of-living relief may add to inflation.

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JUDO BANK PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Setka’s CFMEU branch backs pay deal worth 20pc

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 18-Jun-24

CFMEU members have backed John Setka’s final deal as Victorian secretary of the union before his retirement. The deal with Master Builders Victoria provides for a 20 per cent increase in pay for construction workers over the next four years and reinstates conditions banned under the former Coalition government’s building code, including union flags on site and union vetoes on rostered days off. The deal is expected to be rolled out to the rest of the construction industry in coming weeks.

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CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION, THE MASTER BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF VICTORIA

Candid meeting clears the air

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Jun-24

Five memorandums of understanding between Australia and China were signed following the meeting between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday, although their details will not be released until after Li concludes his visit in Perth on Tuesday. In what was described as a "candid" meeting, Li and Albanese agreed to improve military-to-military lines of communications in order to hopefully prevent potentially dangerous confrontations in the air or at sea, while Li stated that the two countries could seek common ground while "shelving their differences".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Australian federal politicians awarded 3.5% pay rise by independent tribunal

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Original article by Sarah Basford Canales
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 18-Jun-24

The Remuneration Tribunal has defended its pay rise for federal public office holders, stating that it took into account factors such as the minimum wage case, changes in private and public sector wages and the budget position. MPs, senators and bureaucrats will receive a pay rise of 3.5 per cent from 1 July, and the independent tribunal notes that they have received a ‘modest’ cumulative pay rise of just 18.25 per cent since 2015. The salary of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will rise by more than $20,000 a year, to $607,471; Opposition leader Peter Dutton will in turn be paid $432,239 a year, an increase of about $25,000. The salary of Department of Prime Minister & Cabinet secretary Glyn Davis will rise $34,202 a year to more than $1m.

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AUSTRALIA. REMUNERATION TRIBUNAL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

‘More secretive than the Morrison government’: Labor accused of transparency failure

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Original article by Amy Remeikis
The Guardian – Page: Online : 18-Jun-24

When they were in opposition, Labor MPs were critical of the Morrison government over what they claimed was its secrecy and its failure to deal with issues of transparency issues. However, independent MPs, who were elected on a platform to boost transparency and restore trust in Australian democracy, claim that Labor is more secretive in government than the Morrison government was. Independent MP Andrew Wilkie, who has been in federal parliament for 14 years, rates the Albanese government as a "a fail for transparency", while fellow independent MP Helen Haines contends the major parties only believe in transparency when they are in opposition.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Melbourne Institute & Roy Morgan – Taking The Pulse of the Nation: Many women are dissatisfied with the division of unpaid domestic work between them and their partner

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jun-24

Taking the Pulse of the Nation (TTPN) surveys the Australian population to capture their sentiments and behaviours related to current economic and social issues. The March 2024 survey reveals that, while the total hours of unpaid domestic work has decreased since March 2023 for parents of dependent children, women -and mothers in particular – continue to undertake disproportionately more household work. Such activities include grocery shopping, food preparation, laundry, grounds care and gardening, home and vehicle maintenance, caring for children, caring for adults, and paying bills. Although the gender gap in part reflects differences in employment status – and, thus, could reflect a conscious decision to specialise within couples – women are more often dissatisfied with the division of household tasks than men. To view all Melbourne Institute – Roy Morgan Taking The Pulse of the Nation Reports visit the TTPN website portal: https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/data/ttpn.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

ALP & Coalition are now even on two-party preferred terms in mid-June: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jun-24

The Albanese Government and the Liberal-National Coalition are now ‘dead even’ on two-party preferred terms: ALP 50% (down 3.5%) cf. Coalition 50% (up 3.5%). If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. The major States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland drove the swing to the Coalition this week with each State swinging by at least 3% away from the Government. Primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 38% this week. The increase for the Coalition came at the expense of the ALP, down 1% to 29.5%, and the Greens, down 2% to 13.5%. Support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5%, support for Other Parties was up 1.5% to 5.5% and support for Independents was down 1% at 8.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Setka threat to AFL may be unlawful

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 14-Jun-24

Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke says the CFMEU’s proposed work-to-rule campaign against the AFL is likely to constitute unlawful industrial action. Steven Amendola, a partner at law firm Kingston Reid, adds that the threat of industrial action unless the AFL agrees to sack head of umpiring Stephen McBurney could breach adverse action laws; he also suggests that the threat could potentially fall within Victoria’s blackmail laws. The CFMEU’s John Setka contends that the proposed action is not unlawful as construction workers will simply adhere to their regular hours and not work overtime or on rostered days off.

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CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS, KINGSTON REID

ABS employment estimates for May followed Roy Morgan’s earlier figures showing jobs growth driving a drop in unemployment

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jun-24

The ABS employment estimates for May released this week showed Australian unemployment dropping 9,200 to 598,900 (4.0%, down 0.1%). The ABS estimate once again followed the earlier released Roy Morgan ‘Real Unemployment’ estimates which showed a decrease of 170,000 to 1,365,000 (8.7%, down 1%) – over twice as high as the latest ABS estimate. The ABS showed under-employment, increasing 17,000 to 1,008,000 (6.7%, up 0.1%) although this is still significantly lower than the latest Roy Morgan under-employment estimate of 1,338,000 (8.5%). The combined Roy Morgan ‘Real Unemployment’ and under-employment estimates show 2.7 million Australians (17.2% of the workforce) unemployed or under-employed in May – the lowest rate of total labour under-utilisation for nearly two years since July 2022 (17.1%, 2.52 million) during the last few months of pandemic restrictions.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS