O75 Public Administration

Democrats’ presidential campaign redux: Kamala’s manifesto

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Original article by Cameron Stewart, Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 9 : 24-Jul-24

Associated Press has reported that at least 2,660 Democrat delegates will back Kamala Harris as the party’s presidential candidate; she requires the support of just 1,976 delegates to win the first ballot at the party’s National Convenion in August. Key Democrats have also backed Harris, including former House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi and a growing number of state governors. Meanwhile, Harris has used her first major speech since becoming the Democrats’ presumptive presidential election nominee to criticise Donald Trump’s stance on issues such as taxation, social welfare and abortion. President Joe Biden in turn praised Harris in a phone call to the campaign meeting; in his first public comments since withdrawing from the election race, Biden said Trump is still a danger to the community and the nation.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES)

Unions unleash part-time IR battle

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Jul-24

The Fair Work Commission will commence a review of part-time employment in 2025. FWC president Adam says it will examine daily and weekly minimum hours of work for part-time workers, and the circumstances in which working hours may be altered. Meanwhile, the union movement will seek restrictions on part-time employment. This includes minimum shifts of four hours for such workers; at present some awards provide for minimum shifts of no more than two hours for part-time and casual workers. Unions will also push for a requirement that part-timers receive 28 days’ advance notice of rosters changes, and that any such changes must be made with mutual agreement.

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AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 5.9pts to 84.4 after Stage 3 tax cuts hit the bulk of consumer’s pockets; highest consumer confidence since January 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jul-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 5.9pts to 84.4 in the week to 21 July; this is the largest weekly jump since mid-April 2021, when the index jumped 6.4pts. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 77 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 9.2 points above the same week a year ago (75.2), but it is 2.7 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.7. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows that there were increases in most States led by a large rise in Queensland, and up strongly in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, although there was a dip against the trend in Western Australia. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 12% (up 4ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition gains slight edge over Labor after controversy about alleged union corruption: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Jul-24

If a Federal Election were held now the Coalition would be favoured to form a minority government with the support of minor parties and independents with the Coalition on 51% (up 0.5%) leading the ALP on 49% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. The Coalition increased its primary vote lead over the ALP this week with the Coalition up 2% to 39.5% and well ahead of the ALP on 31.5% (up 0.5%). In addition, support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 13%. Support for One Nation was unchanged at 5%, support for Other Parties dropped 1.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents dropped 1.5% to 7.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

CFMEU seeks talks with Fair Work over administrator bid

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 8 : 23-Jul-24

The Fair Work Commission plans to place up to five of the CFMEU’s construction divisions into administration, following allegations that the union has been infiltrated by criminal elements connected to underworld figures and bikies. CFMEU national secretary Zach Smith is to seek talks with the FWC about its plans, with Smith wanting to meet with FWC general manager Murray Furlong before Furlong makes an application to the Federal Court to place the ­divisions under the control of an independent administrator. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has ruled out reinstating the Australian Building & Construction Commission or a new entity with similar powers.

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AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

No AUKUS change, but Israel may be different

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 23-Jul-24

Michael Fullilove from the Lowy Institute says Kamala Harris is likely to adhere more closely to traditional US foreign policy compared with Donald Trump if she wins the presidential election. He notes that Harris has expressed support for the AUKUS defence pact with Australia and the UK, so it is likely to proceed under a Harris administration. However, Fullilove adds that the US government’s stance on Israel may change if Harris becomes president, given that she has been more supportive of Palestine than President Joe Biden. Delegates at the Democratic National Convention in mid-August will decide whether to formally endorse her nomination as the party’s presidential candidate.

CORPORATES
LOWY INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES)

Albanese to call in watchdog for CFMEU

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Original article by Ewin Hannan, Greg Brown, Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 1 & 9 : 17-Jul-24

Cabinet sources have indicated that the federal government intends to appoint an external administrator to the CFMEU in response to the allegations about its links to the underworld. A senior minister has stated that this is the "only option" left for the government to ‘clean up’ the CFMEU. The Coalition has urged the government to deregister the militant union, but Labor has ruled out this out; the minister has stated that doing so could have "unintended consequences" and make it harder to clean up the construction sector in the long-term. RMIT law professor Anthony Forsyth notes that deregistration is generally only available for industrial misconduct rather than criminal behaviour. Meanwhile, the Maritime Union of Australia is said to be considering whether to demerge from the CFMEU.

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CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY AND MARITIME EMPLOYEES UNION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RMIT UNIVERSITY, MARITIME UNION OF AUSTRALIA

Business disconnected from IR law changes

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Original article by Rhiannon Down
The Australian – Page: 7 : 17-Jul-24

Council of Small Business Organisations Australia CEO Luke Achterstraat says all small business owners need to be informed about the federal government’s industrial relations reforms which come into effect next month. COSBOA has launched a new initiative called Small Business Peak, which aims to inform the small enterprise sector about the upcoming IR changes. Achterstraat notes that many small business owners are ‘time-poor’ and do not have an in-house legal team to keep them informed of legislative changes. A survey has found that just 21 per cent of small business owners are aware of the IR reforms.

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COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 78.5 in mid-July but long-term views on the economy drop to lowest so far this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jul-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 78.5 in the week to 14 July; however, it has now spent a record 76 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 5.9 points above the same week a year ago (72.6), but it is now 3.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.6. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria and Western Australia, down in Queensland and South Australia but virtually unchanged in NSW. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In June Australian unemployment dropped to 8.3%; the lowest unemployment since September 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jul-24

In June 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 62,000 to 1,307,000 (down 0.4% to 8.3% of the workforce). This is the lowest rate of unemployment since September 2022, although overall employment is virtually unchanged above 14.3 million. Although unemployment decreased in June as people left the workforce, under-employment increased by 65,000 to 1,403,000. Taken together, overall unemployment and under-employment in June was virtually unchanged at 2.7 million (17.3% of the workforce). Meanwhile, employment was virtually unchanged at 14,307,000 (down 3,000) in June. There was a shift to more part-time employment, with 4,941,000 Australians (up 72,000) now employed part-time; full-time employment was down 75,000 to 9,366,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.3% is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.0% for May, but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED