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ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in late May have dropped to 4.9% after spiking in April as petrol prices increased

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.9% for the week of May 20-26. This represents a slight decline from the average so far this year of 5.0%, and a pullback from the month of April (5.2%). A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for April 2024 shows the measure at 5.2% for the month – the highest monthly figure so far this year and up 0.3% points from March 2024 (4.9%). This is the largest monthly increase in Inflation Expectations since June 2023, when the measure increased 0.4% points to 5.6%. Looking back over the last few months, since the start of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% – 5.3% and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 7,593 Australians aged 14+ in April 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Prime Minister Luxon’s honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-24

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for May 2024 shows that support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has fallen by 4.5% points to 48.5%; it now has a narrow lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition (up 4% points to 47%. support for National was down 3% points to 33.5% – the lowest support for National since last year’s election; support for ACT decreased 1.5% points to 9.5% while support for NZ First was unchanged at 5.5%. Support for Labour jumped 5.5% points to 30%, to its highest level since June 2023; support for the Greens was up 1% point to 14% and support for the Maori Party was down 2.5% points to 3%. A further 4.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. The survey results for May would lead to 61 seats (down seven seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 59 seats (up four seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition. This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 925 electors from April 22 to May 19. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 10.5pts to 96 in May.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreased 1.8pts to 80.2 as views about the next year deteriorate

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 80.2 in the week to 26 May; it has now spent a record 69 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4 points above the same week a year ago (76.2), but 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.3. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Queensland, WA and SA but up slightly in Victoria – reversing the trends of a week ago. Now 22% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now 8% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Rapist attacks 25 women, teen – and keeps his visa

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Original article by Paul Garvey, Rhiannon Down
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 29-May-24

The federal government is continuing to attract scrutiny over Direction 99, which requires the Administrative ­Appeals Tribunal to take into account a foreign-born offender’s ties to Australia in assessing an appeal against the cancellation of their visa. It has been revealed that a serial rapist, a child sex offender and a Chinese national who was in possession of a huge quantity of child pornography are amongst those who have had their visas reinstated due to Direction 99. It has also been disclosed that Immigration Minister Andrew Giles’ own department had warned that about 25 per cent of foreign-born criminals could have the cancellation of their visa overturned via Direction 99.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH AND AGED CARE, AUSTRALIA. ADMINISTRATIVE APPEALS TRIBUNAL

1200 Chinese spies on Aussie turf, former spook reveals

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Original article by Kathryn Bermingham
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 29-May-24

A former Chinese spy has told the Defending Australia summit that the nation has been infiltrated by many operatives from his homeland. ‘Eric’ warned that at least 1,200 Chinese spies are currently active in Australia; this includes about 1,000 "low-level" operatives and an additional 200 "professional" operatives. Eric said that most of the spies are being directed by China’s Ministry of State Security, the Public Security Bureau or a consulate, and that they are collecting information, undertaking surveillance and harassing targets on behalf of the Communist regime.

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We can’t mount solo defence against invasion any more: Beazley

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Original article by Ben Packham, Sarah Ison, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 29-May-24

Defence Minister Richard Marles delivered a keynote speech at the Defending Australia summit in Canberra on Tuesday night. He said the world is currently facing the most threatening strategic circumstance since the end of World War II, and emphasised the importance of the AUKUS alliance to Australia’s defence strategy. However, former Labor leader Kim Beazley told the summit that Australia’s military can longer defend the nation from invasion without support from the US; he argued that the nation was ”absolutely" able to defend itself when he was defence minister in the 1980s.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE

University of Melbourne pro-Palestine protesters endorse Israel should not exist social media post

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Original article by Suzan Delibasic
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 28-May-24

The University of Melbourne’s chancellor Jane Hansen has received a formal complaint about an Instagram post that was re-shared by pro-Palestine activists who occupied a campus building for more than a week. Palestinian-American blogger Mariam Barghouti was responsible for the original post, which stated that "Israel cannot, will not, and should not exist". This post was subsequently re-shared by the UniMelb for Palestine Instagram page. A member of the Jewish community wrote to Hansen expressing concern about the post and urging her to take immediate action, stating that the post effectively calls for the wholesale murder of nine million people in Israel.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE

Inflation may drop below 3pc by July

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 28-May-24

Monthly inflation data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that consumer price growth was steady at 3.5 per cent in the year to April. Commonwealth Bank economist Stephen Wu says energy subsidies in recent federal and state budgets will flow through to consumers in July and August, and they may be sufficient to reduce consumer price growth by 0.6 per cent in those months; this would restore inflation to the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent on a quarterly basis well ahead of its forecast of late 2025. However, CBA senior economist Belinda Allen says this would probably not prompt the RBA to reduce the cash rate, as it is likely to focus on underlying inflationary pressures.

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COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the Albanese Government’s lack of support for Israel has cost the party support in the last week

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-24

Primary support for the ALP has dropped 2% to 28.5% last week after student protests on University campuses in support of Palestine were broken up and Foreign Minister Penny Wong has consistently expressed support for a two-state solution to end the conflict in Gaza. ALP support was also undermined because Prime Minister Anthony Albanese failed to support Israel after International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan issued applications for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. However, the Coalition is not benefiting directly from this, its primary vote remained unchanged at 37%. Instead, support has increased for the Greens is up 0.5% to 15%, One Nation, is up 0.5% to 6%, Independents are up 0.5% to 9% and Other Parties are up 0.5% to 5%. More women than men swung against the Albanese Government and a look at the results in the different States shows the strongest swings against the ALP on a two-party preferred basis were in Queensland (-7.5%) and Victoria (-6.5%). In addition to the national issues, in Queensland the Steven Miles-led ALP Government is facing a State Election defeat this year while in Victoria the Jacinta Allan-led ALP Government has just handed down a State Budget with spending cuts and no sign of any cost-of-living relief for consumers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 2.8 pts to 84.9 in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 2.8 points in May; however, it remains at a very weak level, with the historical average sitting above 110. The future conditions index rose 5 points to 90, while the current conditions index was unchanged at 78. Net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 2 points to -15%; 25% (up 3% points) of New Zealanders say they are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 40% (up 1% point) say they are ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, a net 29% of respondents think it is a bad time to buy a major household item, up 1 point from a month ago. Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations fell from 4.4% to 3.8%, close to the post-2010 average of 3.7% and closing in on the pre-Covid average of 3.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED