O75 Public Administration

Coalition enjoys its largest two-party preferred lead since the last Federal Election: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-24

The Coalition now has a clear lead on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the Federal Election more than two years ago: L-NP 51.5% (up 2%) ahead of the ALP 48.5% (down 2%) in the week student protests on University campuses in support of Palestine were broken up. In addition, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese failed to come out in support of Israel after the International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan issued applications for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. While support for the ALP dropped for a second straight week, and was down 2% to only 28.5% this week, the drop in ALP primary support drifted to minor parties and independents, not to the Coalition. Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged on 37% for a third straight week. If a Federal Election were held now the Coalition would form a minority government, but with the support of minor parties and independents, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 15% and support for One Nation increased 0.5% to 6%. In addition, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4.5% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 9%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,488 Australian electors from May 20-26, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

AUKUS subs bigger, better, bolder

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Original article by Brendan Nicholson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 28-May-24

The Australian Submarine Agency’s director-general Jonathan Mead is confident that the project to build five SSN-AUKUS submarines in South Australia will be completed as planned. The nuclear-powered vessels will be based on the UK’s Astute-class submarines, but Mead says they will be "bigger, better, faster and bolder"; they will also be significantly larger than the three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines that will be added to Australia’s fleet in the early 2030s.

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AUSTRALIAN SUBMARINE AGENCY

Australia is unprepared if war breaks out

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Original article by Cameron Stewart
The Australian – Page: 2 : 28-May-24

Professor Paul Dibb says the Australian Defence Force is approximately the same size it was in 1986, when he wrote the seminal ‘Review of Australia’s defence capabilities’. Professor Dibb adds that Australia still basically has a peacetime defence force with little capacity to expand quickly in the event of a military conflict. He notes that when he produced the Dibbs report in 1986 the government of the day was spending much more on defence as a proportion of GDP than the current Labor government, despite the fact that Australia faced only low-level conflict at the time.

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AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1.8pts to 82.0 after small Budget Boost – good time to buy major household items increased 3% to 22%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 82.0 in the week to 19 May. However, despite the increase the index has now spent a record 68 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.7 points above the same week a year ago (77.3), and just 0.4 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.4. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia but down slightly in Victoria. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (unchanged) also expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Albanese vows to get the job done before calling an election

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Original article by Joe Hildebrand
The Daily Telegraph – Page: Online : 22-May-24

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has marked the second anniversary of his government by ruling out an early election, stating that Labor will not to go to the polls until it has addressed the cost-of-living crisis. He adds that reducing the inflation rate is his government’s top priority, and Labor will not focus on its re-election campaign until 2025. Albanese has also noted that handing down a budget amid the current economic conditions is challenging, with the need to balance providing cost-of-living relief with the focus on combating inflation.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Business chief warns ACTU wage push will add to inflation

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 22-May-24

The Australian Industry Group estimates that the ACTU’s push for a five per cent increase in the minimum wage would cost $7bn a year. The AiGroup says its own proposal for a 2.8 per cent minimum wage rise would cost just $3.8bn. CEO Innes Willox says the ACTU’s wage claim would boost inflation, cost jobs and ensure that interest rates stay higher for longer. ACTU president Michele O’Neil in turn contends that the peak union body’s proposed minimum wage rise would not be inflationary; she adds that workers’ real wages will go backwards if the Fair Work Commission grants the small increase that has been advocated by employers’ groups.

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THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, ACTU, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

PM equivalates on ICC’s Hamas-Israel equivalence

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Original article by Ben Packham, Janet Albrechtsen
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 22-May-24

The federal government is under scrutiny over its response to the International Criminal Court’s move to seek an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese initially responded by stating that "I don’t comment on court proceedings". In contrast, US President Joe Biden has labelled the push to charge Netanyahu with war crimes as "outrageous"; he also stated that there is "no equivalence between Israel and Hamas", whose leaders in Gaza may also face war crime allegations. Foreign Minister Penny Wong subsequently issued a statement in which she said the decision on arrest warrants is a matter for the ICC.

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INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE

Disposable income soared for richest Australians after pandemic but went backwards for the rest, report says

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Original article by Stephanie Convery
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 21-May-24

A report from the Productivity Commission has concluded that government assistance in response to COVID-19 resulted in an "unprecedented fall" in income inequality during the pandemic. The report found that household disposable income declined for 90 per cent of Australians early in the pandemic. However, the poorest households were hardest hit, with their income falling by eight per cent; in contrast, the income of the nation’s wealthiest households fell by just one per cent. The latter subsequently benefited the most from the post-pandemic rebound.

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AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine comments on drop in support for the ALP the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-24

The following are some reasons the ALP vote has declined: In a climate where Australians are concerned about cost of living, inflation, and the housing crisis, the Reserve Bank has drawn a causal link between the housing crisis and immigration levels. The Reserve Bank has stated high immigration is driving rental inflation and this creates a housing crisis for many Australians. The Government’s failure to tackle high immigration – Coalition Leader Peter Dutton has stated the Coalition will cut annual permanent migration to 140,000 – is hurting the Government. The Government’s commitment to hand billions of dollars as tax rebates to Australian billionaires to create ‘clean technology’ such as ‘Green Steel’ has not resonated with electors; and in addition the $300 per year household electricity rebate will be only a ‘drop in the bucket’ compared to increasing mortgages and rising food prices.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL

New IR laws ‘can’t stop AI’s impact’

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 6 : 21-May-24

The Senate is conducting an inquiry into the adoption of artificial intelligence, with the ACTU using its submisssion to claim that current laws do not adequately ensure there is "sufficient openness, trans­parency and consent to the use of AI". The ACTU stated that the Fair Work Act does not provide sufficient protection against victimisation and discrimination where a human decision-maker is concerned, leaving it totally inequipped to deal with AI-based decision-making. The Australian Services Union used its submission to ensure that generous redundancy provisions are in place when job losses cannot be avoided because of AI, while the shop assistants union voiced concerns about algorithm-led rostering used across retail and warehousing.

CORPORATES
ACTU, AUSTRALIAN SERVICES UNION