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Australian unemployment increases in April to 9.7% – overall labour under-utilisation at highest since October 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

In April 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (up 1% to 9.7% of the workforce) despite overall employment remaining near its all-time high at over 14.2 million. In addition to the increase in unemployment, there was also a slight increase in under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000. These combined increases mean a massive 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic. In April 1,535,000 Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce, up 1%), an increase of 177,000 from March driven by more people looking for both full-time and part-time work. There were 669,000 (up 74,000) looking for full-time work and 866,000 (up 103,000) looking for part-time work.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased to its highest in over three years at 3.13 million in April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

The Roy Morgan employment estimates for April show total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased 195,000 to 3,129,000 (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%). ‘Real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (9.7%) and under-employment increased 18,000 to 1,594,000 (10.1%). The increase means overall labour under-utilisation is at its highest for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million). The labour force has experienced rapid change over the last year with a large increase in population (+717,000) – a rate almost three times higher than the average annual population growth over the last 25 years of 287,000. This population increase has been the driver of a growing workforce, up by 667,000. However, the figures show although new jobs are being created, there are not enough jobs being created to soak up the 667,000 people who joined the workforce over the last year and increasing numbers of Australians are becoming unemployed or under-employed.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Surplus of $9.3b, then a sea of red ink

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 14-May-24

The federal government is set to announce a budget surplus of $9.3bn for 2023-24, having previously forecast a deficit of $1.1bn in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. It will be only the second successive budget surplus since the global financial crisis; however, this will be followed by large deficits over the forward estimates period, which the government has attributed to "unavoidable spending". Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says it will be "a Labor budget through and through", with cost-of-living relief that will reduce rather than increase inflation and a tax cut for every worker.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ALP maintains election winning lead over Coalition for a fourth straight week before Federal Budget is delivered: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the fourth week in a row with support on 52% (unchanged) ahead of the Coalition on 48% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis before Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers this week’s pre-election Federal Budget. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Although the overall two-party preferred result was unchanged, primary support for the ALP increased 2% to 32% this week but is still well behind the Coalition, unchanged on 37%. Looking at the minor parties, support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13.5% and support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5.5%. Support for Independents was down 1% to 7.5% and support for Other Parties was down 1% to 4.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,654 Australian electors from May 6-12, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Four-day week for Woolworths workers

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 3 : 8-May-24

The Shop, Distributive & Allied Employees’ Association has backed a proposal to enshrine the right to a four-day working week in a new enterprise agreement for Woolworths employees. The proposed deal would allow full-time staff to compress their 38-hour working week into four shifts comprising 9.5 hours each. Bernie Smith from the SDA says staff who opt for a four-day week would be required to work up to four weekend shifts over a four-week period. The enterprise agreement will cover about 130,000 workers, who will vote on the proposed deal in coming weeks.

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WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, SHOP, DISTRIBUTIVE AND ALLIED EMPLOYEES’ ASSOCIATION

Roy Morgan Business Confidence improves marginally in April – up 1.3pts to 99.3 before next week’s pre-election Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

In April 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 99.3 (up 1.3pts since March 2024), marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 11.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2; however, Business Confidence is up 9.1pts since March 2023. Now 52.1% (up 8.2ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, while 44% (down 10.3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ – the best results for these indicators since April 2022. In contrast, a record low proportion of businesses, 29.3% (down 9.6ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years, while 60.5% (up 6.4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ over the longer-term. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,986 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Palestine chant may incite violence

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 8-May-24

Former ASIO director-general Dennis Richardson contends that ‘from the river to the sea’ is a "very violent statement" and its use by pro-Palestine demonstrators could prompt violence against communities in Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has expressed similar sentiments about the now widely-used chant, and he has stated that it has "no place on Australia’s streets". Richardson and Albanese have discussed the issue in a documentary hosted by former treasurer Josh Frydenberg that will be broadcast by Sky News later in May. Meanwhile, Frydenberg has called for action to remove pro-Palestine encampments at some of the nation’s major universities.

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AUSTRALIAN SECURITY INTELLIGENCE ORGANISATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Bullock’s red flag on inflation

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 8-May-24

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock says she is "alert and vigilant" to the risk of inflation staying too high for too long. The RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday, and Bullock says the RBA board believes that it is at the right level to return inflation to the target range of 2-3 per cent in 2025. However, Bullock adds that doing so is likely to be a bumpy ride, while she has flagged the possibility of further interest rate increases if services inflation remains above the central bank’s target range. Meanwhile, Bullock has emphasised the need for Treasurer Jim Chalmers to ensure that the budget on 14 May is not inflationary.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Vic ratings warning over debt

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Original article by Gus McCubbing, Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 8-May-24

The Victorian government’s budget papers show that it expects to post an operating surplus of $1.5bn in 2025-26. However, the state’s net debt is forecast to rise from $156.2bn in mid-2025 to $187.8bn by 2028. S&P Global Ratings analyst Anthony Walker says the firm expects Victoria’s gross debt as a proportion of revenue to rise above 200 per cent of operating revenue. He warns that the state’s credit rating could be downgraded again if its debt rises to 240 per cent of operating revenue or interest payments rise to 10 per cent of operating revenue. Meanwhile, interest payments on the state’s debt will rise from $6.5bn in 2024-25 to $9.4bn by 2028, and interest as a share of revenue is forecast to rise from 6.3 per cent to 8.8 per cent.

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S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.6 points to 80.5 before the Reserve Bank meets on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.6pts to 80.5 in the week to 5 May. The index has now spent a record 66 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 2.8 points above the same week a year ago (77.7), but 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.6. Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, but up slightly in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ