O75 Public Administration

Inflation means tax cuts could pose a risk

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sarah Ison, Lydia Lynch
The Australian – Page: 6 : 26-Apr-24

AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the higher-than-expected inflation data for the March quarter means the revised stage-three income tax cuts present a greater economic risk than when they were first announced. He contends that the tax cuts to be announced in the 14 May budget would have been less of a risk to the economy if inflation had been falling. Veteran economist Chris Richardson notes that it has been known for a long time that the tax cuts will be inflationary. Consumer prices rose by one per cent in the March quarter; this compares with economists’ expectations of 0.8 per cent growth, and the 0.6 per cent increase in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

RBA to increase cash rate to 5.1pc, says top forecaster

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Apr-24

The consensus of economists is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will upgrade its near-term inflation forecast in May, following the release of the latest CPI data. A stronger-than-expected headline inflation rate of one per cent for the March quarter – and 3.6 per cent in the year to March – has also prompted economists to forecast that the RBA will delay its first official interest rate cut. However, while most economists expect the RBA’s next move will be a rate cut, Judo Bank’s chief economic adviser Warren Hogan has forecast that it will increase the cash rate three times in 2024, from 4.35 per cent at present to 5.1 per cent. He had previously anticipated that the first rate cut would occur in early 2025.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JUDO BANK PTY LTD, JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX JDO

Musk’s lawyers to fight orders on two fronts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Nick Bonyhady, Tess Bennett, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 24-Apr-24

Social media giant X could incur a fine of up to $782,500 for each day it does not comply with a directive to remove video footage of the Sydney church stabbing from its platform. However, X owner Elon Musk contends that the ‘take-down’ order goes too far, given that it applies globally. The US billionaire has expressed concern about one country being allowed to censor content for all countries. Musk’s lawyers have indicated that they could challenge the take-down order in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has described Musk as an egotist and accused him of being "out of touch with common decency". Meanwhile, the Coalition has proposed barring young children from using social media to protect them from harmful content.

CORPORATES
X CORPORATION, AUSTRALIA. ADMINISTRATIVE APPEALS TRIBUNAL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Inflation Expectations in late April are at 5.0% – up slightly from the month of March (4.9%)

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.0% for the week of April 15-21. This figure is in line with the average over the last 12 weeks of surveying since late January – also of 5.0% – and up slightly from the month of March. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for March 2024 showed the measure at 4.9% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on February (5.0%). The figure of 4.9% for the month of March 2024 was the lowest monthly inflation figure since January 2022 (4.9%). Looking back over the last few months, since mid-December 2023, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%. After March ended, Inflation Expectations moved higher through the first few weeks of April and are now marginally higher in late April. A likely driver of the increases in Inflation Expectations during April is the recent strength in the retail price of petrol, which is now over $2 per litre. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,999 Australians aged 14+ in March 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Fears interest rates could be hiked in 2024

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sarah Sharples
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

Australia’s employment and inflation outlook has prompted speculation that the Reserve Bank could increase rather than reduce the cash rate in 2024. Another official interest rate rise would put further pressure on mortgage holders. Data from Roy Morgan shows that 1.53 million mortgage holders were at risk of mortgage stress in March; CEO Michele Levine says Roy Morgan’s modelling shows that this would rise to 1.57 million mortgage holders if the central bank were to increase the cash rate by 0.25 per cent in both May and June, to 4.85 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.2 points to 80.3 – the lowest so far this year

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.2 points to 80.3 in the week to 21 April, and the index has now spent a record 64 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now only 2.3 points above the same week a year ago (78.0), and 2.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.8. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but up in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 35% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now just 9% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

US ‘hasn’t wavered’ on Australian nuclear subs

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 2 : 24-Apr-24

US State Department official Bonnie Jenkins says the Biden administration remains committed to the AUKUS defence alliance, including the sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. Jenkins has also responded to China’s concerns about the AUKUS pact by arguing that it is aimed at ensuring the safety and security of the Indo-Pacific region. She has emphasised that Australia will not be armed with nuclear weapons via the alliance, and the nation is permitted to have nuclear-powered submarines under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. DEPT OF STATE

Security chiefs to target tech giants

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 24-Apr-24

The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation’s director-general Mike Burgess and Australian Federal Police Commissioner Reece Kershaw will jointly address the National Press Club on Wednesday. They will urge technology companies to work with law enforcement and intelligence agenies to combat the use of their platforms by criminals and extremists. They are particularly concerned about the use of end-to-end encryption services such as Facebook Messenger and Telegram to disseminate racist and other harmful information and ideologies. Burgess has also warned that artificial intelligence technology will facilitate national security threats such as espionage, foreign interference and radicalisation.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITY INTELLIGENCE ORGANISATION, AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE

PM betraying Hawke reforms

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Joe Kelly, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Apr-24

Former prime minister John Howard has criticised the federal government’s Future Made in Australia policy. Howard has likened the policy to the "new protectionism" that had been derided by former Labor prime minister Bob Hawke more than three decades ago, and describes it as a betrayal of the reforms undertaken by the Hawke and Keating governments. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has described critics of the policy as "flat earthers", but Howard says Albanese "is a flat-earther with the best of them".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

‘Out of control’: Meta has Whitlam as our No.1 PM

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian – Page: 4 : 23-Apr-24

Shadow communications minister David Coleman has criticised Meta Platforms after it released the latest version of its artificial intelligence tool. When asked to rank Australia’s best prime ministers, the Meta tool listed Gough Whitlam first, despite the former Labor leader being the nation’s only prime minister to have been sacked by the governor-general. Malcolm Turnbull was the only Liberal prime minister in the AI tool’s list of the nation’s top five leaders. Coleman has accused Meta of either "deliberate bias or gross incompetence". Former Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger says the results demonstrate a "strong left wing bias" at Meta, and show that technology companies should be regulated in the same way as conventional media.

CORPORATES
META PLATFORMS INCORPORATED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA