A special analysis of movement data in Australia’s Capital City CBDs since the COVID-19 pandemic began shows movement in the CBDs of Sydney, Brisbane and Perth all plunging over the last week as all three were placed into lockdown to deal with the latest COVID-19 outbreaks in each city.

The average 7-day movement level in the Sydney CBD last week was at its lowest since the pandemic began more than a year ago at only 11% of pre-COVID-19 averages. This is a drop of 48% points since movement levels reached a 2021 high of 59% of pre-pandemic averages in the Easter holidays in early April.

There were also record low movement levels last week in both the Brisbane CBD, at only 23% of pre-pandemic averages, and Perth CBD at only 25%. The movement levels in Australia’s 3^rd and 4^th largest cities dropped rapidly after the respective Premiers announced snap lockdowns just over a week ago.

The average movement levels in the Melbourne CBD have increased by 10% points to 22% of pre-pandemic averages since the recent lockdown of the city with mandatory mask-wearing in offices and factories only ending this week on Friday July 9^th. Despite this increase movement levels in the Melbourne CBD remain slightly below the averages in both the Brisbane and Perth CBDs.

Unsurprisingly movement levels are highest in the only two State Capital Cities to avoid recent lockdowns at 45% of pre-pandemic levels in the Adelaide CBD and at 40% in the Hobart CBD last week. South Australians can take pride that their city has been the ‘closest to normal’ of all Capital Cities for over five months now with average movement levels not dropping below 40% of pre-pandemic averages this year.

Australian Capital City CBDs average 7-day movement levels March 1, 2020 – July 4, 2021: % Movement is compared to the 7-day average in Jan-Feb 2020

Source: Roy Morgan collaboration with UberMedia who provide anonymous aggregated insights using mobile location data. Note: Movement data for the Capital City CBDs excludes the residents of the respective CBDs.

The latest vaccination figures from the Health Department show over 8.6 million vaccination doses have so far been administered to Australians covering around a third of the adult population. If herd immunity requires 80% of Australia’s 20 million adults to be vaccinated, we are still many months away from administering the 32 million vaccination doses required to reach this mark.

The events of the last few weeks with five Australian cities enduring lockdown of anywhere from a few days to three weeks comprehensively demonstrate that until a sizeable majority of Australians are vaccinated against COVID-19 there will remain the ongoing threat of snap border closures and restrictions as well as lockdowns being enforced to get on top of any viral outbreaks.

Roy Morgan has partnered with leading technology innovator UberMedia to aggregate data from tens of thousands of mobile devices to assess the movements of Australians as we deal with the restrictions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The interactive dashboard available on the website tracks the movement data for those visiting the Capital City CBDs during 2020 and 2021, excluding the CBD residents of each city. Movement data from several key locations around Australia is also available to view by using the interactive dashboard.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says the outbreaks of COVID-19 in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth forced city-wide lockdowns in all three cities last week and sent the movement of people in the respective Capital City CBDs plunging to record lows:

“We are now well over a year into the COVID-19 pandemic but despite a successful handling of the virus by Australian leaders so far this doesn’t mean the pandemic is over by any stretch.

“Over the last month five Australian Capital City CBDs have endured city-wide lockdowns ranging from four days (Brisbane & Perth) up to at least three weeks (the recently extended Sydney lockdown).

“The recent lockdowns have sent the movement of people in the respective Capital City CBDs plunging to record lows of only 11% of pre-pandemic levels in the Sydney CBD, 23% in the Brisbane CBD and 25% in the Perth CBD. These are all lower levels of movement than reached during any stage of the nation-wide lockdown in the first half of 2020. There is good news for the Melbourne CBD with average movement levels up 10% points from the city’s recent lockdown to 22% of pre-pandemic averages.

“Although the last few weeks might have seemed like nothing much has changed from a year ago the continuing roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines is a quantitative difference. The roll-out has been criticised by many as lagging comparable countries overseas however there have now been over 8.5 million vaccine doses administered to nearly a third of all adult Australians.

“In the critical age groups over 70% of Australians aged 70+ have received a vaccine dose and over 50% of Australians aged 50+ have received a vaccine dose. However, the slow rate of the rollout is readily apparent when one considers only 10% of Australians have now been fully vaccinated by receiving their second vaccine dose.

“The low rate of vaccination is unfortunately set to contribute to continuing uncertainty regarding potential lockdowns, border closures and additional restrictions. The Victorian Government’s decision this week to cancel the Australian Formula 1 Grand Prix set for mid-November shows Governments are expecting ‘more of the same’ over the next few months.

“Until a large majority of around 80% of Australian adults are vaccinated against COVID-19 we are at a continuing risk of drastic measures being taken that provide a huge hit to businesses attempting to recover from the pandemic without the level of support provided during 2020.”

View the latest Roy Morgan UberMedia movement data for Australian Capital City CBDs including the Melbourne CBD, Sydney CBD, Perth CBD, Adelaide CBD and Hobart CBD here.

MORE INFORMATION

Michele Levine – direct: 03 9224 5215 | mobile: 0411 129 093 | Michele.Levine@roymorgan.com.

A special analysis of Roy Morgan’s latest unemployment estimates by State during the June quarter 2021 compared to the last quarter prior to the pandemic, December quarter 2019, shows significant changes in two States – Queensland and South Australia.

Queensland appears as the big ‘loser’ of the COVID-19 pandemic so far with total unemployment and under-employment in the sunshine state now at 23.5% of the workforce in the June quarter 2021, an increase of 6.6% points since the December quarter 2019 – and now clearly higher than any other State.

In contrast South Australia has handled the pandemic better than any other state on the employment front with total unemployment and under-employment in the State now at 17.4% of the workforce and below the national average – a decline of 6.5% points on December quarter 2019. South Australia has had fewer days in lockdown of any State and is the only mainland State not to experience a lockdown so far during 2021.

Despite spending more time in lockdown than the other States the lowest unemployment and under-employment is again to be found in the two largest States of New South Wales and Victoria. New South Wales had the lowest unemployment and under-employment of any State at 16.5% of the workforce in the June quarter 2021, an increase of 1.3% points while Victoria was second at 17.1% (up 0.1% points).

Western Australia has powered through the pandemic – even recording a Budget surplus during 2020 on the back of mining royalties – and its performance is confirmed by a strengthening employment market with total unemployment and under-employment of 17.3% in the June quarter 2021, down 2.4% points from late 2019.

Tasmania has been largely isolated from the mainland States for much of the pandemic and there has been little change to the island State’s employment picture with total unemployment and under-employment of 21.4% of the workforce in the June quarter 2021, down 0.4% points on late 2019.

Australian Unemployment & Under-employment by State

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) comparing Unemployment & Under-employment in October – December 2019 (13,526 interviews) and April – June 2021 (18,837 interviews) of Australians 14+.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says:

“Australia’s handling of COVID-19 has been widely lauded as one of the world’s best in terms of keeping the virus out of the country and most Australians have lived a largely normal life during the last 18 months – although there has been one nation-wide lockdown in early 2020, a long Victorian lockdown and several shorter lockdowns around the country to deal with.

“Since the pandemic hit Australia in mid-March 2020 the economy has managed to grow by 1.1% over the year to March 2021 when most comparable countries experienced a prolonged contraction. This growth despite the challenge of COVID-19 has under-pinned a fairly strong performance on the employment front – although there have been ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ as well.

“The biggest loser of the pandemic on the employment front has been the tourism-dependent Queensland which has seen total unemployment and under-employment soar from 16.9% of the workforce in the December quarter 2019 to 23.5% in the June quarter 2021 – an increase of 6.6% points.

“The increase in Queensland is fairly evenly spread between an increase in unemployment by 3% points to 11% and an increase in under-employment by 3.7% points to 12.6% over this period. The tourism industry in Queensland has been hard hit by the continuing closure of international borders and the snap border closures whenever there has been a domestic outbreak of COVID-19 has added tremendous uncertainty to any domestic holiday bookings for people from Sydney and Melbourne.

“In contrast to the situation in Queensland it is South Australia which has performed above average over the course of the pandemic. Total unemployment and under-employment in the State has fallen from 23.9% pre-pandemic to 17.4% in the June quarter 2021 – a drop of 6.5% points.

“South Australia’s management of COVID-19 has been ‘top of the class’ with fewer outbreaks than other mainland States and not one day of lockdown for the State so far during 2021. The lesser reliance of South Australia on international tourism than other mainland States has also served the local economy well during a time when international borders have remained closed.

“A partnership between Roy Morgan and UberMedia which tracks the movement of people in locations around Australia shows the Adelaide CBD has tracked at a higher rate of movement than other Capital Cities for most of the pandemic – and every day of the last five months

“However, despite the good performance of South Australia, the two largest States of NSW and Victoria again have the lowest overall unemployment and under-employment. Before the current lockdown in Sydney there were a total of 16.5% of the workforce in NSW either unemployed or under-employed, an increase of 1.3% points from late 2019 and Victoria’s total unemployment and under-employment was 17.1%, virtually unchanged from pre-pandemic.

“The resilience of NSW and Victoria is impressive as Sydney and Melbourne have experienced longer lockdowns, and far more outbreaks of COVID-19, than any other cities. The importance of the two States to the national economy is under-lined by the fact nearly three-fifths of economic activity (57%) in Australia is generated within NSW and Victoria based on the latest ABS GDP figures.

“What these unemployment estimates do show is that the RBA was right to hold interest rates at a record low of 0.1% this week as there is still far too much unemployment and under-employment in the Australian economy to consider raising interest rates at present.

“The latest Roy Morgan June estimate shows there are now 2.65 million (17.9% of the workforce) Australians who are either unemployed or under-employed – and this figure was before the current three-week long lockdown in Sydney which may well be extended.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 764,684 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and June 2021 and includes 13,526 interviews in December quarter 2019 and 18,837 interviews in June quarter 2021. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.