Retail slump won’t stop RBA rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Feb-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 3.9 per cent in December. This followed 11 consecutive months of growth. Monthly sales fell by $1.4bn to $34.4bn in seasonally adjusted terms in December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the downturn in retail sales reflects the impact of rising interest rates on household budgets. However, some economists have downplayed the significance of the latest retail data, arguing that the Black Friday sales in late November affected the seasonally-adjusted figures. The Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Exposed: big tobacco’s links to vape research

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Original article by Remy Varga
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 1-Feb-23

The Foundation for a Smoke Free World was launched in 2017; it has financed more than 70 academic papers on topics such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and rates of smoking cessation over the last five years. Some of this research has produced positive findings about e-cigarettes and vaping, and many of the research papers have been cited by other researchers hundreds of times. However, some of this research does not disclose that the foundation is solely funded by tobacco giant Philip Morris, which revealed plans to expand into e-cigarettes in 2013. A spokeswoman has indicated that the foundation operate independently of Philip Morris.

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FOUNDATION FOR A SMOKE FREE WORLD, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INCORPORATED

Inflation Expectations dropped 0.5% points to 6.0% in December 2022 and are far higher in Country Areas

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

In December 2022, Australians expected inflation of 6.0% annually over the next two years, down 0.5% points from a decade high of 6.5% reached in November. Inflation Expectations in December are 1.2% points higher than a year ago and up 2.4% points from two years ago. Inflation Expectations are now significantly below the ABS CPI figures for the year to December 2022, which showed consumer price inflation reaching a 32-year high of 7.8%. The early indications from this year are that the decline in Inflation Expectations at the end of 2022 has continued, with the latest weekly reading falling to only 5.1%. A deeper look at Inflation Expectations by region shows that expectations are consistently far higher in regional areas than in the Capital Cities. At a national level Inflation Expectations were at 6.7% in the Country Areas, compared to 5.6% in the Capital Cities. The largest gap is in Victoria, with Inflation Expectations at 7.4% in Country Victoria compared to only 5.4% in Melbourne. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,964 Australians aged 14+ in December 2022.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Why Forrest is so keen on rare earths

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Original article by Tom Parker
Australian Resources & Investment – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

Fortescue Metals Group founder Andrew Forrest became a cornerstone investor in rare earths miner Hastings Technology Metals in 2022, via his private company, Wyloo Metals. Forrest says he is "very interested in rare earths", which are essential to the green energy technologies that are being developed by FMG’s Fortescue Future Industries offshoot. A subsidiary of FFI recently built a prototype battery that uses rare earths; the battery will be shipped to FMG’s iron ore mines in the Pilbara for testing in a battery-electric haulage truck.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, FORTESCUE FUTURE INDUSTRIES PTY LTD, HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED – ASX HAS, WYLOO METALS PTY LTD

Tax the rich to pay for parental leave contributions: HESTA

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Original article by Lucy Dean, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 1-Feb-23

Industry superannuation fund HESTA has used its pre-Budget submission to urge the federal government to cap super fund balances at $5m. CEO Debby Blakey notes that balances of around $5m receive about $70,000 worth of tax concessions annually, which is more than many of HESTA’s members earn in a year. HESTA has also called for the threshold at which high-income earners pay more tax on super to be lowered from $250,000 a year to $180,000; Blakey says this would allow more money to be directed to the Commonwealth Parental Leave Pay scheme. She contends that Australia’s superannuation system has a "persistent gender blind spot" that must be addressed. Some 80 per cent of HESTA’s members are women.

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HEALTH EMPLOYEES’ SUPERANNUATION TRUST AUSTRALIA LIMITED

NSW Voting Intention: ALP increased their lead over the L-NP to end 2022: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

The latest Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 55% (up 3% points since November), well ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 45% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Primary voting intention shows that they have both lost support to minor parties and independents, with the L-NP down 3.5% points to 33.5% and now level with the ALP on 33.5% (down 1.5% points). Both major parties have not failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a NSW election since 2007. Support for the Greens has risen by 0.5% points to 12% while support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is up 4.5% points to 21%. This Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted via telephone and online surveying with 1,446 New South Wales electors aged 18+ during December 2022.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence bounces slightly, up 0.9pts to 86.8 over four-day holiday weekend for many

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.9pts to 86.8 in the week to 29 January, the third increase out of four weeks so far this year. However, Consumer Confidence is still 15pts below the same week a year ago (101.8), and 1.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence around Australia was mixed, with the measure up in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but down in Victoria and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

New Zealand: Labour support at only 27.5% in December 2022 – down 22.5% points since the 2020 New Zealand Election before Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows that support for the Labour/Greens coalition government was on 38.5% in December, down 19.4% points since the 2020 election. Support for Labour has fallen by 22.5% to 27.5% since the election in October 2020. Meanwhile, support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government has risen by 16.3% points to 49.5% since the election. Support for the main opposition National Party is up 9.4% points to 35% and support for Act NZ has increased by 6.9% points to 14.5%. Support for the Maori Party has increased by 2.8% points to 4% since the election. In addition, 8% of electors support minor parties outside Parliament, an increase of 0.3% points since the 2020 election. If these results were repeated at this year’s election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 65 seats in the new Parliament compared to 50 seats for Labour/Greens and a further five seats for the Maori Party. This New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 947 electors during December, prior to the resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell by a further 5pts in December to a record low of 75. The indicator is now down 78pts from January 2021 (153), just after the re-election of the Ardern Government.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, THE OPPORTUNITIES PARTY, NEW CONSERVATIVE PARTY

Woke firms giving only Yes side of voice debate

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Original article by Ellie Dudley
The Australian – Page: 4 : 25-Jan-23

KPMG and Ernst & Young are among the large Australian firms that have expressed support for an Indigenous voice to parliament. A KPMG spokeswoman says the firm is likely to hold optional seminars during work hours to "educate" its staff as to why they should vote ‘yes’ in the upcoming voice referendum. Indigenous leader Nyunggai Warren Mundine has criticised "woke" companies for running "biased education programs" that favour the ‘yes’ campaign and push their corporate agenda. Former prime minister Tony Abbott says companies should let their employees make up their own minds on the issue of an Indigenous voice.

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KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG

Australia’s softening inflation unlikely to spell an end to interest rate hikes

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Original article by Peter Hannam
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release inflation data for the December quarter on Wednesday. Many economists expect the annual headline inflation rate to have peaked at 7.5 per cent in the quarter, compared with 7.3 per cent in the previous three months. The trimmed mean is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of inflation; the general consensus of economists is that this will be 6.4 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 6.1 per cent in the previous quarter. However, the ANZ Bank expects a headline inflation rate of 7.7 per cent and a trimmed mean of 6.7 per cent. The bank contends that the RBA is likely to increase the cash rate three times by May, given that both measures will still be well above its target range of 2-3 per cent.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ